Dad. RGA Investment Advisors. Soundview Equity Partners. GARP investor. Mets, Jets, Isles fan. Compulsive reader. In awe of nature. Co-host @twiii_podcast.
Stamford, CT
Joined December 2008
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Incredible new episode with Doug O'Laughlin of @fabknowledge and @SemiAnalysis_!!
On how the semi industry is leading AI forward, the winners of the AI race, an intriguing investment opp in the newest bottleneck for the industry & the deep recession in the non-AI semi world.
.@ElliotTurn and @mihaljevic welcome Doug O'Laughlin of SemiAnalysis and Fabricated Knowledge. Doug shares insights into semiconductors, how the industry leads AI forward, AI winners, opportunity in an industry bottleneck, and the non-AI semi recession.
podbean.com/eas/pb-m8t6a-17c…
Elliot Turner retweeted
FDA published draft guidance yesterday that could change how genetic medicines reach rare disease patients.
The problem it aims to solve: a single genetic disease is often caused by many different mutations in the same gene. Until now, a therapy tailored to each mutation risked needing its own approval process. For diseases where a mutation might affect a handful of people; patients and families continue to wait.
This new framework could enable a company to get one approval for a disease, with the boundaries of what can be customized defined up front. Once approved, the version for the next patient’s mutation could be added as a supplement if supported by in vitro data: evidence in cells that the new version edits the target efficiently and stays within the off-target limits set during the original clinical program. In most cases, no new clinical data would be required.
One product, one name, and a clear path from the first patient to the next.
This could be a promising way to unlock many opportunities, especially in rare and ultra-rare diseases, a win for patients, their caregivers and for our industry. Prime editing was designed for it: one platform, one delivery system, and only a small patient-matched component change.
We appreciate the FDA / CBER teams for the forward thinking and patient focus. We look forward to working together on this guidance.
Let’s get more medicines to more patients in need.
Draft guidance: fda.gov/media/195887/downloa…
Elliot Turner retweeted
Surprise 1: Anthropic acquired a one-person biotech
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Surprise 2: that person is me
Surprise 3: I’m here to tell you all about it
Yes, this is what you think it is; after 6 yrs of increasingly loose anonymity: the Professor Oak reveal post
…and yes, it has gotten so boring around here that I’m literally doxxing myself to spice up the timeline
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Ok, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Cody Tranbarger. I mostly tweet, but occasionally find time to dabble in drug dev & starting/building biotechs. My past lives span the VC, crossover, startup continuum; Prof Oak has been my way of keeping a digital foot in those worlds, despite having my physical feet planted elsewhere.
The past 18 mo, ‘elsewhere’ was Mithril Medicine, a co. I founded to develop bsAbs for LAMA2-CMD & other ECM-related genetic diseases.
Mithril was born out of hands-on building with @MikeNGladstone, @JasonPaulRhodes, @LifeSciVC, & team @atlasventure. Somehow, I made enough half-decent calls along the way (even a broken clock is right twice a day, eh?) to convince them Mithril/I warranted a small seed. While I can hardly rationalize such an outrageously cavalier bet, I’m grateful for it, & I'd partner with Atlas again in a heartbeat.
In typical AV fashion, Mithril’s primordial form was virtual, decentralized, & ultra-lean. This stage tends to be short-lived, but for Mithril, it worked surprisingly well, for surprisingly long, thanks in part to the rapid maturation of the AI tools I used liberally.
Eventually, Mithril became a bit of an experiment itself - to find the upper bound of how far it could scale as a single operator + a bunch of Claude (+ a stellar bench of part-time consultants).
In parallel, I started spending time with @nc_frey, @an1lam, & @CoefficientBio team; and promptly experienced, for the 1st time, AI at the frontier. Soon thereafter, Mithril stopped looking like an experiment, & started looking like a preview of an entirely new operating model.
From that spark came “Pipeline-in-a-Person.” The idea immediately resonated when we shared it here back in April; and it was central to the shared vision that led to Anthropic’s acquisition of Mithril, & my joining the team.
Why join Anthropic? Three reasons.
(1) For Mithril, the programs continue, with more resources & infrastructure behind them, and as much Claude as I can put to work.
(2) For me, the chance to start several more programs, & find out how many one person can actually run in parallel - an almost unprecedented luxury for a curious drug hunter.
(3) For our mission, a path to institutionalize & scale this new way of working, then put it in the hands of all of biopharma, all over the world - which, candidly, I find the most energizing.
Will AI x Bio cure diseases? Unequivocally yes, imo… but not by the route that gets the most airtime. Rather than timeline acceleration & compression, I see orchestration & parallelization as today's low-hanging fruit.
Most drug hunters see a handful of go/no-go calls in a career, & spend entirely too much of the rest trading emails (my inbox can attest).
Give them the bandwidth to run several programs at once, and the time to focus on scientific judgment, and I’m willing to bet they’ll make better calls. And at scale, better calls translate to more drugs, higher hit rates, broader patient impact, & likely, a disease or 10 or 100 cured. I couldn't be more excited to build toward that future @AnthropicAI.
Finally, a heartfelt thank you to BioTwitter/X. The end of anonymity is bittersweet, but if anyone’s earned a proper introduction, you all have.
It’s difficult to overstate how much this app has done for me: a decade of education, plenty of friends, many job opportunities, several mentors, a few investors, even a co-founder (fmr). It was the generosity of this community that inspired me to start posting 6 years ago, after just as many years lurking. I hope I’ve been able to pay it forward, in my own small way.
But, to be clear, Prof Oak isn’t going anywhere. Same beat, same themes, and now, a front-row seat to drug development at the frontier. Stay tuned for dispatches from the trenches; and remember...
Gotta Cure 'Em All
Elliot Turner retweeted
Well now that you’ve brought it up I’m talking about the rest of the mideast’s rejection of the partition in 1948 and subsequent attempt to drive the Jews, who accepted the first TWO STATE SOLUTION (which would leave them with a tiny state), into the sea, and then many years of lying bitches like you trying to turn the victims into the perpetrators just because they were way better and won against five arab armies. And then instead of assimilating into Arab countries, as the Jews driven out of ALL of the mideast by pogroms did into Israel, you and yours chose to keep them in squalor (creating a unique politically driven refugee status) rejecting generous peace plan after generous peace plan forever, as a way to retain power and as an inhumane bargaining chip. You and yours can’t begin to survive a real argument. You just repeat your idiocy and lies, and then support terror to the severe detriment of the people you claim to care about. So, you know, that’s what I’m talking about. What are you talking about?
This Reuters article on Anthropic couldn't possibly be more dishonest.
Elliot Turner retweeted
Investors: how are you using AI in your process? Lucas Miller (UC Berkeley, Latticework 2026 keynote) is running a 1-minute anonymous survey. Two respondents win a $200 prize (a month of Claude Max or ChatGPT Pro). Closes Oct 9.
berkeley.qualtrics.com/jfe/f…
As people contemplate Google's risk & opportunity amidst the rise of Muse, 1 place $GOOG can start improving fast:
Get rid of "okay Google" as the hook & name it something relatable.
Anyone near a Google device fears saying the name Google now. That's bad!
"Ok google" as the call to action is a bad idea and incredibly annoying. I can't believe Google hasn't realized it yet.
Now go build a better Muse, given you already have my whole life in data form.
Thanks for listening @sundarpichai.
Elliot Turner retweeted
Chills 25 years later 🥶
Mike Piazza recalls his iconic home run in the @Mets first game back after the attacks on 9/11.
If you never used "Free Palestine" before 10/7, but did immediately thereafter and ever since, you just might be an anti-semite.
Also note the word "looming" by Macklemore...so there was no genocide before 10/7 but a response that was yet to come is?
Disgusting.
Elliot Turner retweeted
@SouthernValue95 has been sharing some pretty killer analysis/takes on hyperscalers and SW. Not enough of it out there these days. He has inspired me to share some of my own sauce. About bioprocessing, of course.
Investors (understandably) became apathetic waiting for the bioP space to recover. I had the luxury of being a specialist tasked with watching the paint dry for a couple years. During this time, I noticed some developments that are likely to grow into meaningful industry tailwinds over the next 5+ years. Surprisingly, nobody is talking about them. I’ll share the biggest one today.
The TL;DR is that antibody drugs are increasingly being formulated as injectables (subQ) rather than IV. The tailwinds are just beginning to materialize, but subQ could add 1%-3% to bioprocess demand growth over the next 5-10 years. This is happening in real-time - a single drug that added a subQ formulation in 2025 is on track to add 150bps to total industry volume demand in 2027.
Monoclonal antibody drugs (mabs) are 85%+ of bioprocess sales for $DHR $TMO $SRT $DIM $RGEN etc. today. Commercial mab volume demand grows 6%-7% as 90% of the underlying drug sales are from cancer, I&I, cardio, or eye drugs, all of which enjoy secular aging tailwinds, expanding indications, and new drug launches. This + pricing - yield improvement is how one bridges to a floor for bioprocessing consumables growth of ~HSD%. 1/
Note claude saying it's a "blowoff" signature in my little study. ex ante it was calling the action in the bottleneck stocks vs the rest of the market the hallmark of a blowoff top bubble w/ the internal metrics more extreme than in dot com.
Look for $META tweets in 2022, people said the same bc of what $AAPL did with ATT. Not exactly the same, but parallels.
Friendly advice for $ADBE bag holders
When a stock has a 8x P/E you can’t seriously rely on management team outlooks nor the street for EPS guidance
The market is telling you everything you need to know which is your outlook numbers are unreliable at best and we think your capital allocation mix is shit and you are likely a casualty of AI
Easier horses to ride
Draining your mental capital on one losing position for years is absolutely not worth it even if you turn out to be right eventually
What started as high multiplies colliding with a growth slowdown has gone too far on the AI Boogeyman.
