Game of Life

The Times's weekend read: * Forget the 10-year plan. Forget the Budget. Forget the everyday fixes. The only question that matters in government right now is what Donald Trump does next on Iran * John Healey, the Chancellor, told colleagues this week that the end of the conflict would be the 'single biggest economic benefit' possible for Britain * He was not underselling it. We are at a clear fork in the road * In one direction lies a world of pain. Inflation rising to 6.2% in Q3 2027. Energy bills heading well north of £2,000. Rising prices at the pump, rising mortgage rates and above all a 'catastrophic' fall in living standards * The other path offers a much brighter prospect. Inflation falling to 2.25% next year. Lower borrowing costs. Higher growth. The decline in living standards 'largely reversed'. It is the kind of shift in economic fortunes that Chancellors can only dream of * What Trump does next is hugely consequential for Britain. But senior government figures acknowledge we have little influence * The optimists in government see Vance's extraordinary Tweet as an attempt to get ahead of the formal climbdown by Trump. The pessimists think he intervened because Trump wasn't moving and is poised to announce another military intervention * But the fact is they don't know. Nobody in British politics does. Trump is an extraordinary capricious president at the best of times. He is backed into a corner. What he does next is anyone's guess. * So what does a prime minister so constrained by the state of the public finances and decisions being made by a man in the White House 3,600 miles away actually do? * Enter Burnham's 10 year plan, which as @HugoGye revealed has already slipped into the New Year. Why is it delayed? The reason is actually pretty simple. They thought if they did it in the run-up to Christmas people wouldn't be listening. Far better to do it at the start of the year. Which is probably right * Burnham feels people are already underestimating the importance of the plan. 'We have to think big in this moment,' he told No 10 staffers. 'The big vision for where the country is going.' The plan, he said, was about getting the buy-in of the electorate * It will be broad brush with three themes, as @benrileysmith revealed - growing up, getting on and growing old - and policies in each area. Education, energy, public control. It is trying to put flesh on Burnham's until now fairly abstract vision * Behind the scenes there is a hive of activity. @benclatworthy reveals that the Boston Consulting Group - a giant US management consultancy - have been drafted in. This is not without controversy. It was involved in the plan for a 'Trump Riviera' in the Gaza Strip * But one person working on the plan said that translating Burnham's broad political philosophy into tangible pledges with timelines is proving challenging. They say that Burnham has set out the direction of his government but not the destination * 'There are a number of issues, like what exactly does ‘public control’ of utilities mean in practice, and how do you achieve that? Likewise Brexit and social care. If it is a ten-year plan, people want to know exactly what the end point is but he has deliberately not set that out. It is a bit like trying to cut your way through a rainforest' Read it here: thetimes.com/uk/politics/art… And listen here on our podcast The State of It with @benrileysmith and @lara_spirit youtu.be/0tQKXqhf_aI?si=8P-G…