Supply gap for Cdn seniors housing has gotten worse in 2026. Blame rising interest rates in 2026.
Accelerating demand of growth in 75+ yrs plus lagging supply. 👇Chartwell Retirement Q3 call slide shows growing supply shortage & says "200,000+ suites/$100 billion of capital required to support seniors over next 10 years vs largest expansion period in Canadian Seniors produced 76,000 suites".
Plus in Q3 call Q&A, asks what is behind industry new construction starts nothing close to what was anticipated coming into 2026. CEO "Well, we certainly are doing our part. I think in terms of general activity, clearly the recent rise in interest rates doesn't help many of the pro formas. I think that certainly is the most obvious reason for some of the deferral of previously expected construction starts for 2026. We'll see what happens in 2027."
This is for those that can afford their own seniors housing. Whereas many know seniors who are having to move back in with their 50ish children, who may also have their <30 yr old children still living at home.
US diesel price down big WoW with impact from the various state gas tax reliefs but also moving into normal seasonal weaker gasoline price period.
Diesel prices flow thru to impact just about every product price, not just agriculture. And as Tyson Foods CFO noted, they just get passed thru to the customer. (see my 👇09/13 post)
AAA average gasoline and diesel prices posted early morning on Nov 7.
Gasoline:
National: -$0.16 WoW to $4.04, -$0.33 MoM, +$0.96 YoY. Now +$1.06 vs $2.98 when US attacked Iran on 02/28.
California: -$0.15 WoW to $5.76, -$0.60 MoM, +$1.06 YoY.
Diesel:
National: -$0.10 WoW to $6.21, -$0.09 MoM, +$2.50 YoY. Record high of $6.53 was hit on 09/22.
California: -$0.18 WoW to $8.19, -$0.17 MoM, $3.02 YoY. Record high of $8.51 was hit on 10/18.
Thx @AAAnews
#oott
Increased diesel and freight costs just get passed through to the customers. Tyson Foods CFO.
"And look, we've seen other headwinds in the business you referenced fuel or freight. I think everybody has seen that. Our commentary has been really around from -- that's a service in which we provide to our customers. That's not something we subsidize. That gets passed through. " CFO 09/10.
Thx @business transcripts.
#oott #Inflation
Audio only. This was from last night ~8:30pm. The coyotes were in a frenzy by the Bow River in 🇨🇦 Rockies. Looked this morning and couldn't see any evidence near our house. Sound travels far at night so they could have been farther out in the field or by the trees.
No surprise, starting to see impact of European airlines cutting back capacity in face of high jet fuels prices and increasing unhedged positions for airlines. Should continue to see this impact over the coming weeks.
Eurocontrol 7-day moving average of arrivals/departures turned negative YoY after 24 consecutive weeks of positive YoY from 05/21 thru 10/29.
Vs 2025, turned negative at -0.2% YoY
11/02: -0.2% YoY
10/29: +1.1%
10/22: +0.9%
10/15: +0.6%
10/08: +0.7%
10/01: +2.7%
09/24: +2.9%
09/17: +2.9%
09/03: +3.0%
08/27: +2.4%
08/20: +2.5%
08/13: +2.9%
08/06: +2.7%
07/30: +2.9%
07/23: +2.8%
07/16: +1.9%
07/09: +2.2%
07/02: +3.2%
06/25: +2.2%
05/28: +2.1%
04/30: -0.5%
03/26: +2.3%
03/19: +1.0%
03/12: -1.0%
03/05: -1.3%
02/26: +3.1%
Vs pre-Covid, Europe air travel (arrivals/departures) continues back above pre-Covid.
11/05: +2.5% vs pre-Covid
10/29: +4.9%
10/22: +3.9%
10/15: +4.1%
10/08: +4.0%
10/01: +4.6%
09/24: +3.2%
09/17: +3.7%
09/10: +3.7%
09/03: +4.1%
08/27: +3.2%
08/20: +3.3%
08/13: +4.9%
08/06: +5.1%
07/30: +4.3%
07/23: +4.1%
07/16: +2.5%
07/09: +2.7%
07/02: +1.0%
06/25; +0.6%
05/28: +3.8%
04/30: +0.5%
03/26: -0.7%
03/19: -2.6%.
03/12: -3.1%.
03/05: -3.5%.
02/26: -1.4%
Thx @eurocontrol
#oott
Houthis claims major attack on Saudi Aramco pipeline & refineries and Riyadh airport.
No formal response from Saudi coalition yet.
Houthis 👇detailed its six attacks using "a large number of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones".
Did Houthis hit Aramco Riyadh refinery? 1st operation was at Riyadh targeting Khalid International airport, oil storage tanks and a distillation tower belonging to Aramco.
"The second operation targeted Aramco's facilities in Khurais and, by Allah's grace, successfully achieved its objective." Reminder Houthis hit Khurais in Apr.
"The third operation targeted Pumping Station No. 8 in the Dawadmi area and, by Allah's grace, successfully achieved its objective." A pumping station on the East West pipeline.
Houthis also claimed attacks on Saud Arabia military targets.
#oott
بيانٌ صادرٌ عن القواتِ المسلحةِ اليمنيةِ
بسمِ اللهِ الرحمنِ الرحيمِ
قالَ تعالى: {فَمَنِ اعْتَدَى عَلَيْكُمْ فَاعْتَدُوا عَلَيْهِ بِمِثْلِ مَا اعْتَدَى عَلَيْكُمْ} صدقَ اللهُ العظيم
في إطارِ الردِّ على العدوانِ السعوديِّ الغاشمِ على بلدِنا وردًّا على جرائمِه الوحشيةِ والتي كانت آخرُها جريمتُه البشعةُ بحقِّ الباعةِ والمتسوقينَ في سوقِ الحضارةِ بمديريةِ الوازعيةِ بمحافظةِ تعزَ صباحَ أمسِ الجمعةِ والتي راحَ ضحيتها العشراتُ من المدنيينَ شهداءَ وجرحى، وكذا جريمتُه البشعةُ بحقِّ الآمنينَ في مساكنِهم في مديريةِ بني حشيشٍ ظهرَ اليومِ والتي راحَ ضحيتها العشراتُ من المدنيينَ جلُّهم نساءٌ وأطفالٌ شهداء وجرحى، وتدميرُ ستةِ منازلَ على الأقلِ.
نفذتِ القواتُ المسلحةُ اليمنيةُ ستَّ عملياتٍ عسكريةٍ نوعيةٍ وذلك بعددٍ كبيرٍ من الصواريخِ الباليستيةِ والمجنحةِ والطائراتِ المسيرةِ:
العمليةُ الأولى استهدفت مطارَ خالدٍ الدوليَّ وخزاناتِ النفطِ وبرجَ التقطيرِ التابعةَ لشركةِ أرامكو في عاصمةِ العدوِّ السعوديِّ الرياضِ وحققتِ العمليةُ هدفَها بنجاحٍ بفضلِ اللهِ.
العمليةُ الثانيةُ استهدفت شركةَ أرامكو في خريصَ وحققتِ العمليةُ هدفَها بنجاحٍ بفضلِ اللهِ.
أما العمليةُ الثالثةُ فقد استهدفت محطةَ الضخِّ رقم 8 في منطقةِ الدوادمي وحققتِ العمليةُ هدفَها بنجاحٍ بفضلِ اللهِ.
والعمليةُ الرابعةُ استهدفت تحشيداتِ العدوِّ السعوديِّ في معسكرِ الحرسِ الوطنيِّ بنجرانَ وكانتِ الإصابةُ مباشرةً بفضلِ اللهِ وخلفت عددًا كبيرًا من القتلى والجرحى.
فيما العمليةُ الخامسةُ استهدفت تحشيداتِ العدوِّ السعوديِّ شرقيَّ محافظةِ الجوفِ على ثلاثِ مراحلَ وتسببت في مصرعِ وإصابةِ العشراتِ من تحشيداتِ العدوِّ السعوديِّ تحتَ قيادةِ الضابطِ السعوديِّ فارسِ الشمريِّ.
أما العمليةُ السادسةُ فقد استهدفت تحشيداتِ العدوِّ السعوديِّ شرقيَّ مديريتي رغوانَ ومدغلَ بمحافظةِ مأربَ تحتَ قيادةِ الضابطِ السعوديِّ فارسِ الشمريِّ خلفت عددًا كبيرًا من القتلى والجرحى في صفوفِهم.
تؤكدُ القواتُ المسلحةُ اليمنيةُ للعدوِّ السعوديِّ المجرمِ قرنِ الشيطانِ وقاتلِ الأطفالِ والنساءِ أنها لن تتهاونَ في الاقتصاصِ لدماءِ أبناءِ شعبِنا العزيزِ الصابرِ وأنهُ سيدفعُ الثمنَ غاليًا أمامَ كلِّ جريمةٍ واعتداءٍ، فدماءُ شعبِنا غاليةٌ والدفاعُ عنها مسؤوليةٌ دينيةٌ وأخلاقيةٌ في أعناقِنا { ذَٰلِكَ وَمَنْ عَاقَبَ بِمِثْلِ مَا عُوقِبَ بِهِ ثُمَّ بُغِيَ عَلَيْهِ لَيَنْصُرَنَّهُ اللَّهُ }. صدقَ اللهُ العظيم
مستمرونَ في عملياتِنا باتجاهِ العمقِ السعوديِّ وفي فرضِ معادلةِ الحصارِ بالحصارِ والتصعيدِ بالتصعيدِ واستهدافِ تحشيداتِ العدوِّ السعوديِّ وضباطِه.
واللهُ حسبُنا ونعمَ الوكيلُ، نعمَ المولى ونعمَ النصيرُ
عاشَ اليمنُ حراً عزيزاً مستقلاً،
والنصرُ لليمنِ ولكلِّ أحرارِ الأمةِ
صنعاءُ 27 جمادى الأولى 1448هـ
الموافقُ 7 نوفمبر 2026م.
صادرٌ عنِ القواتِ المسلحةِ اليمنيةِ
Ukraine will hope the 👇ECMWF Dec/Jan/Feb temp forecast is accurate given all the Russian hits to Ukraine power generation/infrastructure.
#oott #NatGas
Weather forecasts are never 100% certain but how cold or hot it is in winter is the key demand factor for #NatGas and LNG every year.
But this winter, it's even more important for Asian and European #NatGas #LNG consumers given that JKM LNG and NW Europe NatGas prices are double to start winter than expected when US attacked Iran. So Asian and European consumers really need a warm winter to minimize consumption.
So relief, at least for now, as ECMWF's Nov monthly update continue to forecast a much warmer than normal start (Dec/Jan/Feb) winter for all of Europe and Asia.
Note ECMWF has a different forecast than most for Lower 48 that looks to be more normal to colder than normal. But warmer than normal for Canada.
#oott
Weather forecasts are never 100% certain but how cold or hot it is in winter is the key demand factor for #NatGas and LNG every year.
But this winter, it's even more important for Asian and European #NatGas #LNG consumers given that JKM LNG and NW Europe NatGas prices are double to start winter than expected when US attacked Iran. So Asian and European consumers really need a warm winter to minimize consumption.
So relief, at least for now, as ECMWF's Nov monthly update continue to forecast a much warmer than normal start (Dec/Jan/Feb) winter for all of Europe and Asia.
Note ECMWF has a different forecast than most for Lower 48 that looks to be more normal to colder than normal. But warmer than normal for Canada.
#oott
the local Canmore elk gang are just getting up and going for their morning field by the Bow River in 🇨🇦Rockies. always a good day to see the local wildlife.
Dan Tsubouchi retweeted
Higher fuel shipping cost = Higher input costs for every product transported by ship.
Maersk Q3 call today.
"Bunker costs increased by 37%, reflecting the impact of the recent global fuel supply disruption, partly offset by 6.3% lower bunker consumption." CFO
"As in the second quarter, higher bunker costs driven by the Middle East conflict were recovered through surcharges on contracts and through higher spot rates" CEO.
See my 👇09/04 post. Higher Diesel prices = Higher input cost for most every product. Increased truck and rail shipping costs from higher diesel prices typically just get added to the price. Plus increased diesel costs to run farm equipment, fishing boats, or any industrial process also flow into the product price to some degree. ie PepsiCo & High Liner are just two recent exampls.
Thx @business transcript.
#oott
Higher Diesel prices = Higher input cost for most every product.
Increased truck and rail shipping costs from higher diesel prices typically just get added to the price
Plus increased diesel costs to run farm equipment, fishing boats, or any industrial process also flow into the product price to some degree.
PepsiCo Q2. "We're also expecting higher input cost inflation in the second half versus the first half of this year". . See my 07/09 post. teapaw.org/Energy_Tidbits/status/…
High Liner Q2 is another who reminds that higher diesel & petrochemical prices flow thru the food (seafood) supply chain to add to price inflation. See my 08/16 post. teapaw.org/Energy_Tidbits/status/…
Those are just two recent exampls.
#oott
Dan Tsubouchi retweeted
Shipping via Bab el-Mandeb is back to 2/3 of pre-closure capacity for Maersk, >1/2 for industry overall. Maersk CEO on Q3 call.
"On the Red Sea, we have continued a gradual return of our services via the Bab el-Mandeb. Suez transits are now just over two-thirds of pre-closure capacity, and this is delivering faster transit times to our customers while also reducing our bunker consumption."
"Parash, with respect to Bab-el-Mandeb and return to the Red Sea, I mean, we had two-third returns. The market in general is more than half."
Thx @business transcripts.
#oott
Dan Tsubouchi retweeted
ICYMI
Good @WorldBankGroup 10/27 report Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report 2026. "the number of people using solar home systems, water pumps, generators, lanterns and other off-grid solar products rose by 26% over the past two years, from 118 million to 149 million*.
worldbank.org/en/news/press-…
#oott #NatGas #Solar
Great reminder on how off-grid solar is only going to keep growing at very fast rates around the world in developing countries. And how high #NatGas prices have been a big added catalyst to this trend.
This year's high #LNG prices made it unaffordable so countries like Pakistan are rushing to off-grid solar so they can have power.
Thx @SStapczynski for 👇report.
#LNG #NatGas
Is this the critical point in Ukraine/Russia, until Jan 3?
Looks like Zelensky realizes that Putin will keep hammering Ukraine until the new House & Senate are sworn in on Jan 3. And Putin realizes Zelensky is counting on the new Congress to at least try to get more for Ukraine.
Zelensky's post just now list on counting on doesn't mention Trump or his admin.
"We are counting on increased bilateral support from the United States. We are counting on the U.S. Congress to give more attention to Ukraine, because Russia keeps increasing the number of its attacks. It is important that support for Ukraine remains among the priorities of U.S. policy. We are counting on both parties to stand united on matters of security, support for Ukraine, condemnation of Russian aggression..."
#oott
Russia is preparing for trilateral talks by launching ballistic missiles at Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. Repair and rescue operations are underway in the affected regions wherever the security situation allows. In total, the Russians used 172 drones and 36 ballistic missiles, with all the missiles aimed at Kyiv and the surrounding region. Energy infrastructure was once again the main target. The capital is facing serious difficulties with its electricity, water, and heat supplies. Residential buildings and the Northern Bridge were damaged. A kindergarten was partially destroyed. In the Kyiv region, a substation connecting the Rivne and Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plants to Kyiv and Ukraine’s central regions was hit. Substations were also damaged in the Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Rivne, Kharkiv, and Dnipro regions. In addition to Kyiv, twelve other regions came under attack. Nine people were injured, including one child.
I thank all our people who defend the country against this terror every day, work to restore what has been damaged, and do everything they can to get Ukraine through the winter. But when Russia is trying to plunge Kyiv – a city of millions – and the entire country into a blackout, Ukraine must not be left alone. We are counting on increased bilateral support from the United States. We are counting on the U.S. Congress to give more attention to Ukraine, because Russia keeps increasing the number of its attacks. It is important that support for Ukraine remains among the priorities of U.S. policy. We are counting on both parties to stand united on matters of security, support for Ukraine, condemnation of Russian aggression, and increased sanctions pressure on Putin. America’s resolve and consistency in supporting Ukraine are crucial in bringing peace closer.
Isn't it inevitable that, at least for now, the Democrats have to have their first major pushes on affordability, data centers and Iran war?
#oott
Democrats planning flood of AI bills when they take control of Congress reuters.com/business/media-t…
Two things jump out as I watch the replay of the Canada 6 - Sweden 1 game at Women's World Championship.
Huge shame the rights dispute means the players don't have the maple leaf on their sweaters. Some of these players may never represent Canada again at a world or Olympics.
These players are so good and, if they look this fast on TV, I can't imagine how fast they are if you were on the ice with them. Anyone who has seen up close and personal the speed of NHL players knows the game is way faster than it appears on TV.
tsn.ca/hockey-canada/women-s…
The Emperor's New Clothes.
Can't help but think of the classic Hans Christian Andersen fable when I see the Republican post mortems, like Sen Cruz post, on the major issues for Kansas voters. None of these issues were new but it seems like the White House officials, top Republican leaders, etc just didn't want to hammer home to Trump major issues to address six months ago that weren't what he believed.
Republican strategist @FrankLuntz 👇highlights these key Republicans didn't want to be the bearer of bad news months ago before voters had already decided who was to blame.
#oott
Why didn't anyone in the White House urge the President to change course before the 2026 midterms?
I told @StephenASmith it was because of fear.
They were afraid of losing their job.
Watch the post-election podcast with Stephen A. and @CostaReports on YouTube: youtu.be/wgHdKl5WEn8
Dan Tsubouchi retweeted
Pressure on grocery prices in 2027.
Kraft Heinz Q3 call Q&A."
"Now, with the elevated levels of inflation and inflation raising throughout the year, just to put the perspective, this year, our level of inflation is expected to be slightly more than 4%, but in Q4 is around 6%. Which prompting us the need to price across the regions." CFO
"we are going to provide a little more color on 2027 next week, but I can tell you on inflation that we previously said in the prior call, we are expecting 4%-5% next year. The expectation is now slightly above 5%. We continue to see, on one hand, more inflation coming from packaging and from certain commodities. Soybean oil remains a good item of pressure." CFO
Thx @Investingcom
Dan Tsubouchi retweeted
"Consumers and real estate agents are experiencing one of the toughest housing markets in a generation. But even as housing conditions deteriorated sharply, Zillow kept growing and outperforming, powered by our brand, audience....." Zillow Q3 letter.
Zillow shares -13% in pre-market.
Dan Tsubouchi retweeted
China city-level road congestion was 2% lower YoY in Oct after being higher YoY for June, July, Aug and Sept.
Oct -2% YoY, which follows Sept +1% YoY, Aug +3.9% YoY, July +1.2% YoY, June +8.2%, May -3%YoY, Apr -1.5% YoY, March -8.5% YoY, Feb -26.1% YoY, Jan +16.5% YoY, Dec -6% YoY, Nov -9.7% YoY, Oct +2.2% YoY, Sept +4% YoY, Aug +7.2% YoY, Jul -3.1% YoY, June -5.5% YoY, May-3.3%YoY, Apr -11% YoY and Mar -6% YoY.
Big distortions to Jan and Feb YoY data. Jan was distorted way too high and Feb way too low because of different Lunar New Year timing. Lunar New Year was in Jan 2025 so people left the city in Jan 2025 whereas Lunar New Year was in Feb 2026 so people left the city in Feb 2026.
More China road congestion = more cars and trucks on the road = more business/personal activity = more gasoline & diesel consumption.
Thx @BloombergNEF safgroup.ca
#OOTT
Dan Tsubouchi retweeted
Great reminder on how off-grid solar is only going to keep growing at very fast rates around the world in developing countries. And how high #NatGas prices have been a big added catalyst to this trend.
This year's high #LNG prices made it unaffordable so countries like Pakistan are rushing to off-grid solar so they can have power.
Thx @SStapczynski for 👇report.
#LNG #NatGas
The global gas crisis is fueling a shift to renewables across emerging economies ⚠️💰
A cramped market in the heart of Dhaka has become an unlikely ground zero for Bangladesh’s energy transition. Sales of solar panels and batteries are booming as a gas shortage triggers widespread blackouts and drives up utility bills
Monju Hossain, a sales representative for Dongjin Group Bangladesh, said the retailer is struggling to keep up with demand, with sales jumping 50% in recent months from a year earlier. The country’s worsening energy crisis, triggered by the war in the Middle East, is pushing households and businesses to seek alternatives to an increasingly unreliable grid
“The blackouts in Bangladesh have gotten worse, which has increased the need for our equipment,” said Hossain, in a shop on the second floor of the Kaptan Bazar. “Demand from industrial customers has increased significantly, as they have to keep factories running”
The busy market offers a glimpse of how the Middle East energy shock is accelerating the shift away from fossil fuels in poorer countries. From the Philippines to Pakistan and Nigeria, people are turning to solar and batteries to cut utility bills or just to keep the lights and machinery on. It’s a threat to the long-term demand outlook for liquefied natural gas, given that populous developing nations like Bangladesh have long been touted as high-growth markets for the super-chilled fuel
The South Asian nation of 180 million has been one of the hardest-hit by the disruption to energy flows from the Persian Gulf. Load-shedding — or rolling blackouts — have stretched to as long as 18 hours a day in some parts of the country this year as LNG exports from Qatar, formerly Bangladesh’s main supplier, slowed to a trickle
To help make up the shortfall, Bangladesh has been buying LNG on the spot market, at around triple the price of its contracted supply from Qatar, forcing utilities to hike electricity bills. That combination of higher costs and power cuts is pushing consumers toward renewables. Even Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has installed solar panels on his house, according to local media reports this week
An informal survey of more than three dozen stalls at the Kaptan Bazar — one of Bangladesh’s biggest hubs for solar equipment — found that all of shops have seen demand increase to varying degrees. A plunge in the cost of solar panels and batteries in recent years has made the technology more affordable for regular households, spurring sales not just in Dhaka’s markets but across the country
China, the world’s dominant manufacturer of solar and battery equipment, is helping enable the shift. Bangladesh’s imports of the equipment from the country more than doubled to about $140 million in the March through September period from a year earlier
Panels made by China’s Jinko Solar Co. and Longi Green Energy Technology Co. are by far the most popular due to their low price and reliability, according to the Dhaka store owners. Buying a 750-watt panel, enough for a single household, costs about 15,000 taka ($121), compared to about 38,000 taka a year in electricity bills
Adding a battery and associated equipment will quickly boost the outlay by several times, but those costs can be recouped within a decade for a normal family, Dongjin Group’s Hossain said
The shift to solar is being abetted by Dhaka, which cut import tariffs on the equipment in September. The government is aiming for renewables to make up 20% of the power mix by 2030 and 30% by 2040, according to a local media report this week that cited Prime Minister Rahman. That’s up from just 2.5% last year
Dan Tsubouchi retweeted
Can't really buy LNG storage anywhere in the world in case they run into future Strait of Hormuz interruptions so the next best thing for Qatar Energy is buy LNG supply away from Persian Gulf to be able to deliver on its long-term LNG contracts.
Qatar in Talks to Buy More US LNG, Diversify Supply Outside Persian Gulf reports @ruthcoverslng @SStapczynski
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
See my 👇10/29 post on Qatar Energy's recent deals to buy more long-term LNG from US Gulf Coast LNG players for delivery starting 2030 and 2031.
Am still a little surprised that haven't seen any rumblings on @qatarenergy buying into or tying up #LNG from #LNGCanada Phase 1 or Phase 2?
#oott #NatGas
Qatar Energy continues to purchase more long-term LNG from US Gulf Coast LNG players for delivery starting 2030 and 2031.
Can't really buy LNG storage anywhere in the world in case they run into future Strait of Hormuz interruptions so this is the next best thing for it to be able to deliver on its long-term LNG contracts.
Little surprised that haven't seen any rumblings on @qatarenergy buying into or tying up #LNG from #LNGCanada Phase 1 or Phase 2?
#oott #NatGas





















