Ameya Deosthali differentiated insights for value investing Business Enquiries : [email protected]
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Joined August 2024
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Time Technoplast capex tracker , mapping the earnings push and incremental growth
source: internal research , prop
CDMO, when stutidying this sector , you have to study Chinese Players , earnings updates of Wuxi Apptec and what they are doing on the PEPTIDES
1) TIDES Q1-Q3 revenue up 46.9% YoY to 11.52bn, with full-year revenue expected to grow ~47
2) TIDES D&M customers grew 37% YoY, and molecules grew 86% YoY
Lot of Chinese CDMO contracts are also finding way to India , plus China is moving upstream to innovators , we are seeing a lot of global deal making where American Big Pharma is acquiring Chinese portfolios for the R&D but not outsourcing , lot more value
And in India only Divis & Laurus have the capacity to deliver at massive scale for CDMO
And market is also aware and rewarding us for being early in Laurus over the last 3 years , even Divis today had a blockbuster show
Rest of the smaller players are too expensive in my opinion for the capacity that they have , there is no incremental headroom until new capex comes live , and before capex costs come !
No reco
biased in Laurus from much lower levels , and Divis
Supriya Life Sciences Q2FY27 concall notes , my notes from the call just concluded , stuck in a storm is the best way to put it
LATAM regulation + RM prices+ Ambernath Delay audit , will do a substack audio note on this
Hopefully this will correct more so we get the discount we want !
no positions yet
Interarch Building Solutions Q2FY27 concall notes , my notes from the call just concluded earlier today
Capacity rap should lead to a better H2 here as they see new unlocking of revenue
disc: biased from IPO , no reco
Interarch Building Solutions Q1FY27 concall notes , my notes from the call just concluded
Stock split , 250 crores QIP , steel structures capex , and new plant ramp up by next 3 months , there will be a good H2 here as new capacity unlocks , management is targeting 600 crore average run rate per quarter going forward ( FY27 2200 Cr , of course not linear H2 heavy)
Canada tie up for Exports PEB , they are expecting to set up 50 crores export facing unit which at peak utilization will give $23M revenue , 2-3 years to achieve in peak , phase wise ramp up )
Disc: this is not financial reco/investment advice , Consider me biased and hence take it with bucket of salt , do your own due diligence
Windlas Biotech Q2FY27 concall notes , my notes from the call just concluded
Plant 4,5 , EU GMP approved, seeing good wallet share gains from customers , seeing 1100 cr + 10% more , reshuffled the trade generic capacity as the whole market moves away from codeine , we are seeing good performance from business development teams as well , regulatory activity has picked up drastically as well , which is good for larger players like us
A grade management in my opinion , conservative , playing the long game , shareholder centric ..
Windlas Biotech Q1FY27 concall notes, my notes from the call just concluded
Plant 6 commercialization in H1FY27 , continuous focus on ramp up , deepening engagements with customers , increasing exports share( gestation period is longer but we are positive here ) , on Codeine it is more of an industry problem with large players as well , we offered and launched new strategies here
Overall remain positive on plants ramp up , we can do more than initial revenues post ramp up as well for incremental de bottlenecking
BlueJet Healthcare Q2FY27 concall notes , my notes from the call concluded yesterday
Mahad Bacward integration will help them for supply security for CM , Vizag phase 1 will have lateral enteries , onbboarded 50 high performance scientists
bio catalysis , peptide fragments ( intermediates) and the large focus is on building a platform
Next major inflection is only after Vizag , 2029
BlueJet Healthcare , Annual report 2026 , my notes and thoughts :
1) Large cycle of inventory de stocking did affect the performance for them , that they are saying is now behind them
2) Vizag capex to reach good utilisation is still 18 months away , I am thinking the gains from here will be seen in CY2028 only
3) Contrast Media integration at Mahad plant is not major from profitabilty point of view , but to be thought of from a real RM supply security point of view here
4) GLP-1 , peptide fragments are the areas of focus for the Lab in HYD, this should help them meaningfully accelerate the pipeline for incremental business coming out of vizag
5) Alongside the upcoming facility in Vizag, this new R&D centre will be pivotal in advancing our CDMO pipeline, where we are currently tracking approximately 20 active RFPs. Our high-priority pipeline includes six Phase-3 programmes (comprising two GLP-1 candidates and one contrast media NCE) and two commercial products.
6) The new iodinated-based advance contrast media intermediate product launched in FY 2025-26 is showing traction. We are also preparing to launch 3 to 4 new products in this segment in FY 2026-27, further expanding our participation across advanced intermediates within this space
We have been covering this business since listing , next incremental J curve in C28 and most importantly watch the new product launches , I would rank this number 5/7 in capabilty CDMO's , lets see where the new filings come in
disc: no reco, no financial advice , biased from IPO prices , do your own due diligence
Windlas Biotech , good numbers in my opinion , what I really like is the management quality , have been tracking them for more than a year and half , management has been absolutely clean and clear with the targets and goals
Even 2 quarters back when I had asked the management on growth & R&D , the clarity was impeccable and honest
They will get a premium as time goes , A grade management
no reco , biased from lower levels
Windlas Biotech , as the numbers overall look flat , but internals with ESOP'S which were expected to play out on costs are playing out with codeine based products causing reduction in the trade generics side , even though last quarter they had indicated that they have some alternatives
Site ramp up will be the key monitorable here , and once they are able to ramp that up these costs will look small , H2FY27-FY28 story still is the same here
disc: no reco , no financial advice
Shilpa Medicare , Key KPI'S and specifics from Q2FY27 concall , more thoughts soon
source: @stockscansin
