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Ameya Deosthali differentiated insights for value investing Business Enquiries : [email protected]

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Joined August 2024
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Happy Diwali to all of you folks 🪔, a year ahead full of learning , thinking and focusing on health as well As a habit I always spend sometime thinking about how I was as an investor and as a person last samvat to this samvat , time goes quickly , sometimes just reflecting on how grateful we should be to everything around us and keeping our heads down , being humble and working hard is what keeps us who we are 🙏 Be kind to people around you , learn from everyone , everyone has something to offer and focus on health , this is my learning’s that I will keep focusing on ..
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CDMO, when stutidying this sector , you have to study Chinese Players , earnings updates of Wuxi Apptec and what they are doing on the PEPTIDES 1) TIDES Q1-Q3 revenue up 46.9% YoY to 11.52bn, with full-year revenue expected to grow ~47 2) TIDES D&M customers grew 37% YoY, and molecules grew 86% YoY Lot of Chinese CDMO contracts are also finding way to India , plus China is moving upstream to innovators , we are seeing a lot of global deal making where American Big Pharma is acquiring Chinese portfolios for the R&D but not outsourcing , lot more value And in India only Divis & Laurus have the capacity to deliver at massive scale for CDMO And market is also aware and rewarding us for being early in Laurus over the last 3 years , even Divis today had a blockbuster show Rest of the smaller players are too expensive in my opinion for the capacity that they have , there is no incremental headroom until new capex comes live , and before capex costs come ! No reco biased in Laurus from much lower levels , and Divis
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When a company in my watchlist goes from tracking to initiating , always it has to win the spot , treat it like this You are a capital allocator looking to allocate in the best business so you can generate a higher risk adjust return than the market , there cannot be any soft spots or biases , the company has to prove the need to be there , use the edge of being an investor in your favor , don't fall for stories /narratives or themes You are a capital allocator looking to make returns as a shareholder with good entry valuations , rest all is later
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Divis Labs great numbers , absolute expansion across all parameters ! Capacity + capabilty = Success in CDMO Many players who just have capabilty and no capacity , earnings will be capped
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Supriya Life Sciences Q2FY27 concall notes , my notes from the call just concluded , stuck in a storm is the best way to put it LATAM regulation + RM prices+ Ambernath Delay audit , will do a substack audio note on this Hopefully this will correct more so we get the discount we want ! no positions yet
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After @stockscansin and @ishmohit1 has launched the congrats index , I increasingly hear analysts say "congrats" so that it comes in more screens😀, and this is aided by a very strong results season , leading to more congrats in general Very interesting to track it !
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Interarch Building Solutions Q2FY27 concall notes , my notes from the call just concluded earlier today Capacity rap should lead to a better H2 here as they see new unlocking of revenue disc: biased from IPO , no reco
Interarch Building Solutions Q1FY27 concall notes , my notes from the call just concluded Stock split , 250 crores QIP , steel structures capex , and new plant ramp up by next 3 months , there will be a good H2 here as new capacity unlocks , management is targeting 600 crore average run rate per quarter going forward ( FY27 2200 Cr , of course not linear H2 heavy) Canada tie up for Exports PEB , they are expecting to set up 50 crores export facing unit which at peak utilization will give $23M revenue , 2-3 years to achieve in peak , phase wise ramp up ) Disc: this is not financial reco/investment advice , Consider me biased and hence take it with bucket of salt , do your own due diligence
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Windlas Biotech Q2FY27 concall notes , my notes from the call just concluded Plant 4,5 , EU GMP approved, seeing good wallet share gains from customers , seeing 1100 cr + 10% more , reshuffled the trade generic capacity as the whole market moves away from codeine , we are seeing good performance from business development teams as well , regulatory activity has picked up drastically as well , which is good for larger players like us A grade management in my opinion , conservative , playing the long game , shareholder centric ..
Windlas Biotech Q1FY27 concall notes, my notes from the call just concluded Plant 6 commercialization in H1FY27 , continuous focus on ramp up , deepening engagements with customers , increasing exports share( gestation period is longer but we are positive here ) , on Codeine it is more of an industry problem with large players as well , we offered and launched new strategies here Overall remain positive on plants ramp up , we can do more than initial revenues post ramp up as well for incremental de bottlenecking
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BlueJet Healthcare Q2FY27 concall notes , my notes from the call concluded yesterday Mahad Bacward integration will help them for supply security for CM , Vizag phase 1 will have lateral enteries , onbboarded 50 high performance scientists bio catalysis , peptide fragments ( intermediates) and the large focus is on building a platform Next major inflection is only after Vizag , 2029
BlueJet Healthcare , Annual report 2026 , my notes and thoughts : 1) Large cycle of inventory de stocking did affect the performance for them , that they are saying is now behind them 2) Vizag capex to reach good utilisation is still 18 months away , I am thinking the gains from here will be seen in CY2028 only 3) Contrast Media integration at Mahad plant is not major from profitabilty point of view , but to be thought of from a real RM supply security point of view here 4) GLP-1 , peptide fragments are the areas of focus for the Lab in HYD, this should help them meaningfully accelerate the pipeline for incremental business coming out of vizag 5) Alongside the upcoming facility in Vizag, this new R&D centre will be pivotal in advancing our CDMO pipeline, where we are currently tracking approximately 20 active RFPs. Our high-priority pipeline includes six Phase-3 programmes (comprising two GLP-1 candidates and one contrast media NCE) and two commercial products. 6) The new iodinated-based advance contrast media intermediate product launched in FY 2025-26 is showing traction. We are also preparing to launch 3 to 4 new products in this segment in FY 2026-27, further expanding our participation across advanced intermediates within this space We have been covering this business since listing , next incremental J curve in C28 and most importantly watch the new product launches , I would rank this number 5/7 in capabilty CDMO's , lets see where the new filings come in disc: no reco, no financial advice , biased from IPO prices , do your own due diligence
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Windlas Biotech , Interarch Building solutions , Gala precision , Time Technoplast & Supriya life sciences , my call notes , results opinions and thoughts coming tommorow Plust catching up with Shilpa and Bluejet Calls today Very hectic but fun Friday tomorrow! Lot of analysis coming your way tomorrow !
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Today many will understand why The whole US equities trade turned when rates were hiked , it always ends the same way !
Interesting , as I’d said before as well interest rate hike is a big event if it happens, as equation for US equities get tough , but trump is trying very hard not to let this happen But the theme to play again is sticky inflation , chemicals , home improvement channels indicate higher prices still tighter
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Peptides , 6/10 questions in every pharma/cdmo call is on peptides Peptides capex , size ,fragments Will write a note on India peptides Q2 tracker
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I like to talk about stocks more , when they offer larger margin of safety to longer term averages , I don't like to talk about it when they are at 20 times book and are clearly overvalued and the hot theme Hence when I tweet about a company today for some it is boring , but 1 year later I see so much interest in the same stock , to stay ahead of the curve reading through companies that are good companies in tough times is very important
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Ageing like fine wine , got very lucky with this one..
Lets see if we got the bottom , I think this will either age to be fine wine , or a meme , nothing in between
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Parag Milk Q2FY27 , Indegene & Biocon , latest substack audio note on my thoughts on the earnings and what is ahead of them, can listen to it below link: substack.com/home/post/p-223…
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the breadth in the earnings season being strong this time is phenomenal from forgings , textiles , CDMO , Dairy , numbers in most cases are surprising on the upside Market can't ignore it for too long...
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Crude relief is what is most important for us , really good , really happy that we did not fold when the pain was the highest Kept allocating and stayed on the pitch when it was tough , and kept tweeting to be optimistic , lot of folks had to trolled me also on being optimistic last month .. We all have survived this one too , congrats folks 😀
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Parag Milk Q2FY27 , Indegene & Biocon , latest substack audio note on my thoughts on the earnings and what is ahead of them, can listen to it below link: substack.com/home/post/p-223…
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Forgings , machined share of Indian Listed players , that is the real value add and it shows in the per kg profits source: @Tijori1
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Parag Milk Q2FY27 concall notes , my notes from the call just concluded Paneer, 4x capex, 20MT per day to 80 MT per day, commissioning June-27, Cheese 2x capacity from 60 MT to 120 MT per day, 105 crores, completion 2QFY28, whey will also double, expecting new age business contribution to keep incrementally growing no reco , biased , take opinions with pinch of salt
Parag Milk , the slide that matters , business mix no reco , biased hence take with pinch of salt
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