Ian Maclure

agents are going to cause a breakdown of human behavior assumptions underlying today's systems. i've started thinking about it as friction collapse. without friction, a number of norms will collapse. consider selling tickets to a concert/event. today, you can post them at a certain time and it's first come first serve. soon everyone's agent will persistently monitor, and as soon as they are posted for sale, thousands of people will instantaneously be trying to buy the same ticket. how do you even resolve this? sell the ticket to the person whose agent gets there fractions of a second before? we're seeing the same thing with job applications, restaurant reservations, but basically anything that relies on participation requiring effort is going to break down. sales emails/calls, participation in government benefits, apartment rentals, doctors appointments, RFP responses. customer support won't be able to handle the user who will not drop their point of dissatisfaction. with no friction, these systems just don't work anymore. business models will break down: - flights/hotels will be consistently cancelled and rebooked at the lowest price (great use case for your agent if you don't have this already set up) - subscriptions will be cancelled - retailers won't be able to arbitrage price differences as the agent will find the cheapest place to buy anything - insurance denials (health/auto/home/etc.) will be fought tooth and nail - bank interest rates will be optimized and avoidable charges will be avoided a lot of what we perceive as stable social coordination is actually an equilibrium sustained by human inefficiency. rationing is a product of human slowness. signaling effort/interest/intent is a key part of our social infrastructure. inertia is a key to many business models. information asymmetry is everywhere. and attention is monetized thoroughly. with agents, none of these things are true. humans will simply demand what they want and have their agents get it for them. there is going to be a fundamental renegotiation of how markets allocate resources, how people signal intent, and how businesses capture value.