FRAGMENTS finds the pieces the market leaves behind — hidden assets, neglected balance sheets, broken stories — and puts them together before the cro #Fragments
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𝗔𝗿𝗲 𝗪𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗩𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝗼𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗼𝘀?
In 1978, sociologist Mark Granovetter developed a model explaining why ordinary people can suddenly begin behaving differently when they see others doing something they wouldn't normally consider.
Nearly fifty years later, the question seems particularly relevant.
People are working, paying their bills, raising families, and trying to maintain a standard of living that keeps getting more expensive. Employers continue asking for greater productivity, while households absorb higher costs.
𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗲 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝗵 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗳𝘂𝗻𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗯𝗹𝘆 𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹.
Now imagine adding a serious recession. Layoffs, declining retirement savings, another round of sacrifices.
𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝗵 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁?
The economy can appear stable long after people's patience has begun wearing thin. And the financial statistics may tell us very little about what happens when enough people decide they've had enough.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…
𝐀𝐫𝐛𝐨𝐫 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐲 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐬𝐭 $ABR — 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐒𝐃 𝟏𝟏𝟒 𝐌𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐁𝐮𝐲𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤
In July, Arbor spent 𝐔𝐒𝐃 𝟏𝟏𝟒.𝟑 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 buying back shares at an average of 𝐔𝐒𝐃 𝟓.𝟒𝟐. The repurchases were financed partly with convertible debt, while the company was already working through troubled property loans.
If those assets recover sufficiently, fewer shares will divide the remaining value. But Arbor also used cash that could have helped meet its financing obligations. Whether that buyback was attractive depends on what the company ultimately collects—not simply how far below book it bought its shares.
There is more to evaluate than the troubled loans. Arbor earns mortgage servicing fees, holds real estate and owns other investments. Collecting those assets over time can produce a very different result from selling them to buyers demanding distressed prices. The lenders and preferred shareholders still have to be paid before the remaining value reaches the shares.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐮𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐅𝐑𝐀𝐆𝐌𝐄𝐍𝐓𝐒 𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 calculates both outcomes. Paid subscribers get the asset valuations, debt repayment analysis and per-share scenarios, including how much loan losses and financing costs can absorb before the potential upside disappears.
Before buying Arbor, those are the numbers worth seeing.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…
FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
𝗖𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁 $CMTG — 𝗨𝗽 𝟲𝟳% 𝗶𝗻 𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝗗𝗮𝘆. 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗙𝗮𝗿 𝗕𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝗕𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲.
CMTG jumped nearly 𝟲𝟳% yesterday, with almost 𝟮𝟮 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗱. The stock went from Tuesday's $1.11 close to 𝗦𝟭.𝟴𝟱 on Wednesday, while the company now reports 𝗦𝟴.𝟰𝟵 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲.
We published our Deep Value Report on CMTG back in August. I spent a considerable amount of time going through its troubled loans, real estate, debt agreements and the actual amount that could eventually be recovered by common shareholders.
The latest results give us something interesting to compare against that work. CMTG resolved 𝗦𝟰𝟬𝟵.𝟱 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗻𝘀 𝗱𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗤𝟯, received another 𝗦𝟮𝟲𝟴.𝟳 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 in full repayments during October, and now has an agreement to sell a troubled multifamily loan for 𝗦𝟮𝟰𝟱 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝗼𝗿 𝟵𝟴% 𝗼𝗳 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗿𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲.
That last transaction caught my attention. The figures appear to match The Park in Santa Monica, which we valued at 𝗦𝟭𝟴𝟱–𝟮𝟮𝟬 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗲. If it's the same loan and the sale closes, we were too conservative on that asset.
But there are still serious problems. CMTG has a 𝗦𝟱𝟬𝟬 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗛𝗣𝗦 𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗻, substantial exposure to troubled commercial real estate and financing arrangements that can absorb much of the cash recovered from asset sales. Its $125 million position in the Old Chicago Post Office, for example, sits behind approximately 𝗦𝟴𝟯𝟬 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝘁.
Even after yesterday's rally, the stock trades at roughly 𝟮𝟮% 𝗼𝗳 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲. I want to know how much of that remaining book value can actually reach shareholders, and how much could disappear through additional losses, interest and financing costs.
Our full 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝗖𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁 examines the individual properties, loan recoveries, debt structure, HPS financing and our 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝗿, 𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲.
For anyone trying to understand why CMTG trades at such a large discount, this is where I would start.
Here: cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…
𝗫𝗲𝗿𝗼𝘅 $XRX — 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 $𝟭.𝟮𝟬, 𝗱𝗼𝘄 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝟲𝟬% 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀
At this price, it is tempting to start adding up everything Xerox owns: Lexmark, customer financing, software, property and a brand recognized around the world. Those businesses and assets have value. Buying the shares means working out how much remains after the borrowing, retirement payments and financing needed to keep the company operating.
𝗢𝘂𝗿 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 examines those assets individually and explains the assumptions behind their valuations. We follow STARTEEPO’s campaign, the warrants that exchange debt for new shares and the proposed agreement giving lenders stronger protection in return for extending repayment.
The update also examines the reduced cash forecast and where it weakens our earlier estimates. For someone considering Xerox around $1.20, the useful question is what has to happen inside the company for each share to be worth substantially more—and how much ownership existing shareholders could surrender along the way.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…
FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
𝗫𝗲𝗿𝗼𝘅 $XRX — 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 $𝟭.𝟮𝟬, 𝗱𝗼𝘄 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝟲𝟬% 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀
At this price, it is tempting to start adding up everything Xerox owns: Lexmark, customer financing, software, property and a brand recognized around the world. Those businesses and assets have value. Buying the shares means working out how much remains after the borrowing, retirement payments and financing needed to keep the company operating.
𝗢𝘂𝗿 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 examines those assets individually and explains the assumptions behind their valuations. We follow STARTEEPO’s campaign, the warrants that exchange debt for new shares and the proposed agreement giving lenders stronger protection in return for extending repayment.
The update also examines the reduced cash forecast and where it weakens our earlier estimates. For someone considering Xerox around $1.20, the useful question is what has to happen inside the company for each share to be worth substantially more—and how much ownership existing shareholders could surrender along the way.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…
FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 — 𝗗𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀 ($DRVN)
𝗔𝗻 $𝟭𝟴 𝘀𝗮𝗹𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝟱𝟰% 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗗𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀’ 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 $𝟭𝟭.𝟳𝟬. 𝗜𝗳 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗻𝗼𝘄, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝟭𝟱%, 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗮𝘅𝗲𝘀. Financing, Roark’s approval and the company’s operating performance would still determine whether they received it.
Our Special Situation calculates the return across different sale prices and waiting periods. It also examines the cash remaining after investment and contractual payments, the debt refinancing requirements and the costs a buyer could inherit. Alongside the divisional valuations and bear, base and bull ranges, those calculations show what an investor is being paid to wait for.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…
𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 — 𝗗𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀 ($DRVN)
𝗔𝗻 $𝟭𝟴 𝘀𝗮𝗹𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝟱𝟰% 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗗𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀’ 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 $𝟭𝟭.𝟳𝟬. 𝗜𝗳 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗻𝗼𝘄, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝟭𝟱%, 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗮𝘅𝗲𝘀. Financing, Roark’s approval and the company’s operating performance would still determine whether they received it.
Our Special Situation calculates the return across different sale prices and waiting periods. It also examines the cash remaining after investment and contractual payments, the debt refinancing requirements and the costs a buyer could inherit. Alongside the divisional valuations and bear, base and bull ranges, those calculations show what an investor is being paid to wait for.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…
𝗠𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 $MERC — 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 $𝟬.𝟮𝟬. 𝗣𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗞𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗼𝗴𝗴'𝘀 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗽 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝘄𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟰𝟬.𝟮𝟱% 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝘆.
Kellogg continued buying shares in June at roughly $0.90. Five months later, Mercer has agreed to exchange approximately $1.125 billion of senior notes for equity and raise $400 million in new financing.
The financing participants will receive $420 million in secured notes, plus 40% of the new common and convertible preferred equity.
Existing shareholders are expected to receive 8.5% of the common and 3.5% of the preferred, before certain dilution.
So even for someone who controlled more than 40% of Mercer, the ownership economics are about to change considerably.
I've examined the individual mills, the creditor agreements, the preferred-share terms and what could remain for someone buying the existing stock.
My updated FRAGMENTS dossier includes 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿 / 𝗕𝗮𝘀𝗲 / 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲.
I'm particularly interested in what that 40% shareholder position will represent once the transaction is completed.
Here: cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…
FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
𝗖𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗢𝗻𝗲 $CABO — 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀 𝗔𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 $𝟱.𝟮𝟲. $𝟯𝟬 𝗠𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗘𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝘆. 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗧𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁.
Cable One reports its third-quarter results after the market closes today. Last week, the company appointed Paul Keglevic, a former restructuring executive, to its board and a newly established committee evaluating strategic alternatives.
I find that appointment particularly interesting considering what is happening with the company's creditors.
During the first half of 2026, Cable One reported $356.8 million in Adjusted EBITDA, but its operating cash flow after capital expenditures was only $96.7 million. Meanwhile, the company is negotiating a refinancing involving billions of dollars in obligations, including a disputed $480 million payment for the remaining 55% of MBI.
When I started researching Cable One, I went back to the original MBI acquisition in 2020. I wanted to understand who received the money, how much debt stayed with the business and why Cable One is still obligated to pay hundreds of millions for a company whose operating performance has deteriorated.
What I found led me through several financing transactions, substantial distributions to MBI's owners, an unusual purchase arrangement and eventually a federal court dispute with CoBank.
Our 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 examines the agreements, reconstructs the payments, analyzes the debt maturities and compares the cash generated by both businesses with the financing obligations ahead.
We also revisit our previous 24$-per-share valuation and calculate what could happen to the existing 5.67 million shares if GTCR receives equity in a settlement.
Cable One trades around $5.26 a share and still owns substantial broadband assets. But the company could survive its financing problems while today's shareholders retain only a small percentage of those assets.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵, 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗹𝘂𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗱𝗶𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘀, 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝗮𝗶𝗱 𝘀𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗶𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀.
Read the investigation below.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…
𝗖𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁 $CMTG — 𝗨𝗽 𝟲𝟳% 𝗶𝗻 𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝗗𝗮𝘆. 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗙𝗮𝗿 𝗕𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝗕𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲.
CMTG jumped nearly 𝟲𝟳% yesterday, with almost 𝟮𝟮 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗱. The stock went from Tuesday's $1.11 close to 𝗦𝟭.𝟴𝟱 on Wednesday, while the company now reports 𝗦𝟴.𝟰𝟵 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲.
We published our Deep Value Report on CMTG back in August. I spent a considerable amount of time going through its troubled loans, real estate, debt agreements and the actual amount that could eventually be recovered by common shareholders.
The latest results give us something interesting to compare against that work. CMTG resolved 𝗦𝟰𝟬𝟵.𝟱 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗻𝘀 𝗱𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗤𝟯, received another 𝗦𝟮𝟲𝟴.𝟳 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 in full repayments during October, and now has an agreement to sell a troubled multifamily loan for 𝗦𝟮𝟰𝟱 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝗼𝗿 𝟵𝟴% 𝗼𝗳 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗿𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲.
That last transaction caught my attention. The figures appear to match The Park in Santa Monica, which we valued at 𝗦𝟭𝟴𝟱–𝟮𝟮𝟬 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗲. If it's the same loan and the sale closes, we were too conservative on that asset.
But there are still serious problems. CMTG has a 𝗦𝟱𝟬𝟬 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗛𝗣𝗦 𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗻, substantial exposure to troubled commercial real estate and financing arrangements that can absorb much of the cash recovered from asset sales. Its $125 million position in the Old Chicago Post Office, for example, sits behind approximately 𝗦𝟴𝟯𝟬 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝘁.
Even after yesterday's rally, the stock trades at roughly 𝟮𝟮% 𝗼𝗳 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲. I want to know how much of that remaining book value can actually reach shareholders, and how much could disappear through additional losses, interest and financing costs.
Our full 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝗖𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁 examines the individual properties, loan recoveries, debt structure, HPS financing and our 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝗿, 𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲.
For anyone trying to understand why CMTG trades at such a large discount, this is where I would start.
Here: cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…
𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 — 𝗗𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀 ($DRVN)
𝗗𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 $𝟭𝟭.𝟳𝟬 𝗮𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗻 $𝟭𝟴 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗮𝗹. 𝗥𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗸 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗹𝘀 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝟲𝟮% 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗹𝘆 𝘀𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝘀𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝘁 $𝟯𝟮.𝟭𝟵. It also holds payment rights under a tax agreement, giving it additional financial interests in any transaction.
The company’s $100 million repurchase authorization adds another consideration. Fully executed around that price, it could lift Roark’s ownership toward 𝟲𝟱%, assuming Roark sells none. Today’s report examines the repurchase economics, insider transactions, minority voting results and the controlling owner’s alternatives. It also reconstructs the businesses’ value to assess what a buyer could afford to pay.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…
𝐀𝐫𝐛𝐨𝐫 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐲 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐬𝐭 $ABR — 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐒𝐃 𝟏𝟏𝟒 𝐌𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐁𝐮𝐲𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤
In July, Arbor spent 𝐔𝐒𝐃 𝟏𝟏𝟒.𝟑 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 buying back shares at an average of 𝐔𝐒𝐃 𝟓.𝟒𝟐. The repurchases were financed partly with convertible debt, while the company was already working through troubled property loans.
If those assets recover sufficiently, fewer shares will divide the remaining value. But Arbor also used cash that could have helped meet its financing obligations. Whether that buyback was attractive depends on what the company ultimately collects—not simply how far below book it bought its shares.
There is more to evaluate than the troubled loans. Arbor earns mortgage servicing fees, holds real estate and owns other investments. Collecting those assets over time can produce a very different result from selling them to buyers demanding distressed prices. The lenders and preferred shareholders still have to be paid before the remaining value reaches the shares.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐮𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐅𝐑𝐀𝐆𝐌𝐄𝐍𝐓𝐒 𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 calculates both outcomes. Paid subscribers get the asset valuations, debt repayment analysis and per-share scenarios, including how much loan losses and financing costs can absorb before the potential upside disappears.
Before buying Arbor, those are the numbers worth seeing.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…
𝗖𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗣𝗮𝗽𝗲𝗿 $CLW 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 $𝟭𝟰 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁 $𝟰𝟵.𝟮𝟬 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲. A discount that large is worth investigating, especially when the company’s earnings could improve with paperboard pricing.
Average selling prices increased by $𝟯𝟰 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗼𝗻 from the previous quarter, reflecting price increases and changes in product mix. Clearwater also refinanced its debt to extend maturities. Augusta’s operating problems continued into October, though, leaving investors to assess how much of the improvement could be absorbed by repairs and higher costs.
In our 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁, I value Augusta, Lewiston and Cypress Bend separately, work through the 2027 funding requirements, and calculate how much pricing needs to improve to cover spending and debt payments. I also examine what shareholders might recover through an orderly sale, including the obligations that reduce those proceeds.
The full analysis includes 𝗽𝗲𝗿-𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁, so you can judge whether the discount offers enough protection for the risks involved.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…
𝐀𝐫𝐛𝐨𝐫 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐲 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐬𝐭 $ABR — 𝐔𝐒𝐃 𝟏𝟐𝟎 𝐌𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐎𝐧𝐞 𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐏𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭
On Arbor’s roughly USD 12 billion loan portfolio, one additional percentage point of recovery represents 𝐔𝐒𝐃 𝟏𝟐𝟎 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧—approximately 𝐔𝐒𝐃 𝟎.𝟔𝟓 𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞 in the FRAGMENTS model, before other adjustments. Small differences in what borrowers ultimately repay can therefore change the equity valuation considerably. ABR_Q3_2026_Article_Integrated
Arbor may collect more by working through those loans than by selling them to buyers demanding distressed prices. But waiting costs money. Interest, property expenses and refinancing can consume part of the recovery before shareholders receive anything. The report examines both approaches rather than assuming that holding the assets always produces the better investment. Texte collé
For someone considering the shares, the useful calculation is how much the portfolio can lose, how much the other assets contribute and whether enough remains to justify the purchase price.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐮𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐅𝐑𝐀𝐆𝐌𝐄𝐍𝐓𝐒 𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 values the loans, properties and servicing rights separately, then follows the proceeds through the debt and preferred shares. 𝐏𝐚𝐢𝐝 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐠𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐞𝐫-𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐬, including the assumptions needed for shareholders to benefit from a recovery
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…
𝗠𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 $MERC — 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 $𝟬.𝟮𝟱. 𝗣𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗞𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗼𝗴𝗴'𝘀 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗽 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝘄𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟰𝟬.𝟮𝟱% 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝘆.
Mercer has just announced an agreement to exchange approximately $1.125 billion of senior notes for equity and raise $400 million in new financing.
That's quite a transaction for a company with a market capitalization of roughly $17 million.
But I wouldn't confuse the size of the financing with the value of the existing shares.
The investors providing the new money will receive $420 million in secured notes, plus 40% of the reorganized company's common and convertible preferred equity.
Existing shareholders are expected to retain 8.5% of the new common and 3.5% of the preferred, subject to certain dilution.
And Kellogg? His ownership is one of the reasons I started following Mercer so closely. But even his substantial position doesn't escape the restructuring.
I've spent weeks examining the pulp mills, the German lumber operations, mass timber, the debt agreements and what the individual assets could be worth.
𝗜𝗻 𝗺𝘆 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁, 𝗜 𝗮𝗹𝘀𝗼 𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿, 𝗕𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗲𝘅𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲.
With third-quarter results coming after the market closes today, I'm particularly interested in comparing the actual operating performance with the financial projections Mercer recently shared with its creditors.
There's a lot to examine here, especially for anyone looking at the stock price and wondering what they'll actually own when the restructuring is completed.
The full updated Special Situation Dossier is available on FRAGMENTS.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…
𝗖𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗢𝗻𝗲 $CABO — 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀 𝗔𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 $𝟱.𝟮𝟲. $𝟯𝟬 𝗠𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗘𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝘆. 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗧𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁.
Cable One reports its third-quarter results after the market closes today. Last week, the company appointed Paul Keglevic, a former restructuring executive, to its board and a newly established committee evaluating strategic alternatives.
I find that appointment particularly interesting considering what is happening with the company's creditors.
During the first half of 2026, Cable One reported $356.8 million in Adjusted EBITDA, but its operating cash flow after capital expenditures was only $96.7 million. Meanwhile, the company is negotiating a refinancing involving billions of dollars in obligations, including a disputed $480 million payment for the remaining 55% of MBI.
When I started researching Cable One, I went back to the original MBI acquisition in 2020. I wanted to understand who received the money, how much debt stayed with the business and why Cable One is still obligated to pay hundreds of millions for a company whose operating performance has deteriorated.
What I found led me through several financing transactions, substantial distributions to MBI's owners, an unusual purchase arrangement and eventually a federal court dispute with CoBank.
Our 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 examines the agreements, reconstructs the payments, analyzes the debt maturities and compares the cash generated by both businesses with the financing obligations ahead.
We also revisit our previous 24$-per-share valuation and calculate what could happen to the existing 5.67 million shares if GTCR receives equity in a settlement.
Cable One trades around $5.26 a share and still owns substantial broadband assets. But the company could survive its financing problems while today's shareholders retain only a small percentage of those assets.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵, 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗹𝘂𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗱𝗶𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘀, 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝗮𝗶𝗱 𝘀𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗶𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀.
Read the investigation below.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…