FRAGMENTS Value

𝗖𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁 $CMTG — 𝗨𝗽 𝟲𝟳% 𝗶𝗻 𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝗗𝗮𝘆. 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗙𝗮𝗿 𝗕𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝗕𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲. CMTG jumped nearly 𝟲𝟳% yesterday, with almost 𝟮𝟮 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗱. The stock went from Tuesday's $1.11 close to 𝗦𝟭.𝟴𝟱 on Wednesday, while the company now reports 𝗦𝟴.𝟰𝟵 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲. We published our Deep Value Report on CMTG back in August. I spent a considerable amount of time going through its troubled loans, real estate, debt agreements and the actual amount that could eventually be recovered by common shareholders. The latest results give us something interesting to compare against that work. CMTG resolved 𝗦𝟰𝟬𝟵.𝟱 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗻𝘀 𝗱𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗤𝟯, received another 𝗦𝟮𝟲𝟴.𝟳 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 in full repayments during October, and now has an agreement to sell a troubled multifamily loan for 𝗦𝟮𝟰𝟱 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝗼𝗿 𝟵𝟴% 𝗼𝗳 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗿𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲. That last transaction caught my attention. The figures appear to match The Park in Santa Monica, which we valued at 𝗦𝟭𝟴𝟱–𝟮𝟮𝟬 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗲. If it's the same loan and the sale closes, we were too conservative on that asset. But there are still serious problems. CMTG has a 𝗦𝟱𝟬𝟬 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗛𝗣𝗦 𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗻, substantial exposure to troubled commercial real estate and financing arrangements that can absorb much of the cash recovered from asset sales. Its $125 million position in the Old Chicago Post Office, for example, sits behind approximately 𝗦𝟴𝟯𝟬 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝘁. Even after yesterday's rally, the stock trades at roughly 𝟮𝟮% 𝗼𝗳 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲. I want to know how much of that remaining book value can actually reach shareholders, and how much could disappear through additional losses, interest and financing costs. Our full 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝗖𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁 examines the individual properties, loan recoveries, debt structure, HPS financing and our 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝗿, 𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲. For anyone trying to understand why CMTG trades at such a large discount, this is where I would start. Here: cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗫𝗲𝗿𝗼𝘅 $XRX — 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 $𝟭.𝟮𝟬, 𝗱𝗼𝘄 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝟲𝟬% 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 At this price, it is tempting to start adding up everything Xerox owns: Lexmark, customer financing, software, property and a brand recognized around the world. Those businesses and assets have value. Buying the shares means working out how much remains after the borrowing, retirement payments and financing needed to keep the company operating. 𝗢𝘂𝗿 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 examines those assets individually and explains the assumptions behind their valuations. We follow STARTEEPO’s campaign, the warrants that exchange debt for new shares and the proposed agreement giving lenders stronger protection in return for extending repayment. The update also examines the reduced cash forecast and where it weakens our earlier estimates. For someone considering Xerox around $1.20, the useful question is what has to happen inside the company for each share to be worth substantially more—and how much ownership existing shareholders could surrender along the way. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 — 𝗗𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀 ($DRVN) 𝗔𝗻 $𝟭𝟴 𝘀𝗮𝗹𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝟱𝟰% 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗗𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀’ 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 $𝟭𝟭.𝟳𝟬. 𝗜𝗳 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗻𝗼𝘄, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝟭𝟱%, 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗮𝘅𝗲𝘀. Financing, Roark’s approval and the company’s operating performance would still determine whether they received it. Our Special Situation calculates the return across different sale prices and waiting periods. It also examines the cash remaining after investment and contractual payments, the debt refinancing requirements and the costs a buyer could inherit. Alongside the divisional valuations and bear, base and bull ranges, those calculations show what an investor is being paid to wait for. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗖𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗢𝗻𝗲 $CABO — 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀 𝗔𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 $𝟱.𝟮𝟲. $𝟯𝟬 𝗠𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗘𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝘆. 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗧𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁. Cable One reports its third-quarter results after the market closes today. Last week, the company appointed Paul Keglevic, a former restructuring executive, to its board and a newly established committee evaluating strategic alternatives. I find that appointment particularly interesting considering what is happening with the company's creditors. During the first half of 2026, Cable One reported $356.8 million in Adjusted EBITDA, but its operating cash flow after capital expenditures was only $96.7 million. Meanwhile, the company is negotiating a refinancing involving billions of dollars in obligations, including a disputed $480 million payment for the remaining 55% of MBI. When I started researching Cable One, I went back to the original MBI acquisition in 2020. I wanted to understand who received the money, how much debt stayed with the business and why Cable One is still obligated to pay hundreds of millions for a company whose operating performance has deteriorated. What I found led me through several financing transactions, substantial distributions to MBI's owners, an unusual purchase arrangement and eventually a federal court dispute with CoBank. Our 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 examines the agreements, reconstructs the payments, analyzes the debt maturities and compares the cash generated by both businesses with the financing obligations ahead. We also revisit our previous 24$-per-share valuation and calculate what could happen to the existing 5.67 million shares if GTCR receives equity in a settlement. Cable One trades around $5.26 a share and still owns substantial broadband assets. But the company could survive its financing problems while today's shareholders retain only a small percentage of those assets. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵, 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗹𝘂𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗱𝗶𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘀, 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝗮𝗶𝗱 𝘀𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗶𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀. Read the investigation below. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 — 𝗖𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗣𝗮𝗽𝗲𝗿 $CLW 𝗖𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗣𝗮𝗽𝗲𝗿’𝘀 $𝟭𝟯.𝟲𝟵 𝗿𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝗹𝘆 𝟳𝟮% 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝗶𝘁𝘀 $𝟰𝟵.𝟮𝟬 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲. Following the sale of its tissue business and the acquisition of Augusta, investors now own a company concentrated in paperboard, with three mills whose costs and investment needs differ substantially. Our Deep Value Report reconstructs historical profit per ton, examines the competitive supply entering the market and investigates maintenance, wood, electricity and transportation costs. We then work backward from the share price to determine what operating performance would justify it. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁, alongside the individual mill estimates, financing analysis and downside scenarios. Readers can examine the assumptions behind each range and judge which conditions they are prepared to underwrite. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗖𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁 $CMTG — 𝗤𝟯 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 CMTG was up roughly 𝗜𝟳% 𝗶𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 this morning after closing at 𝗦𝟭.𝟭𝟭 yesterday. The company released its Q3 results last night, reporting 𝗦𝟴.𝟰𝟵 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲. We published our Deep Value Report on CMTG back in August, when the stock had fallen to $1.77 against $8.58 of reported book value. I went back through the new numbers this morning to see how the actual recoveries compared with our estimates. During Q3, CMTG resolved 𝗦𝟰𝟬𝟵.𝟱 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗻𝘀, followed by another 𝗦𝟮𝟲𝟴.𝟳 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 in full repayments during October. Financings outstanding have also come down substantially, and no additional loans were added to the watchlist during the quarter. One transaction caught my attention. CMTG has agreed to sell a troubled multifamily loan for 𝗦𝟮𝟰𝟱 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻, about 98% of its carrying value. The company hasn't identified the property, but the figures appear to match The Park in Santa Monica, which we analyzed in August. We had estimated 𝗦𝟭𝟴𝟱–𝟮𝟮𝟬 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 for that exposure in our base case. If this is indeed The Park and the sale closes at $245 million, we were too conservative. I'm happy to acknowledge that. There are still plenty of risks. CMTG has $566.2 million of CECL reserves, roughly 40% of its loan portfolio by carrying value remains on non-accrual, and the 𝗦𝟱𝟬𝟬 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗛𝗣𝗦 𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗻 is still outstanding. I'm encouraged by the recent transactions, particularly because we're starting to see what buyers are actually willing to pay for some of these assets. But I still want to see how much cash remains after the lenders, financing costs and other expenses have been paid. Our original 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 goes through The Park, Uptown Atlanta, Key Bridge, Old Chicago, the REO portfolio and the debt structure in detail. Here: cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗠𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 $MERC — 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 $𝟬.𝟮𝟬, 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗣𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗞𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗼𝗴𝗴 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝟰𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝘆. That combination got my attention. Kellogg's last ownership filing showed 26.95 million shares, representing 40.25% of Mercer. He was still buying in June, around $0.90 per share. Now Mercer has announced an agreement to exchange approximately $1.125 billion of senior notes for equity and raise $400 million in new financing. The company owns four pulp mills, lumber operations, mass-timber facilities and power-generating assets. But the creditors are negotiating for most of the ownership. Here's what I'm particularly curious about. Shareholders representing approximately 50% of Mercer have agreed to support the restructuring. Kellogg's group last disclosed more than 40%. We don't yet know from the public agreement whether he is among those supporting it. I went through the mills, their estimated values, the debt, Kellogg's ownership and the securities existing shareholders are expected to receive. 𝗜𝗻 𝗺𝘆 𝘂𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝗱𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗲𝗿, 𝗜 𝗮𝗹𝘀𝗼 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿, 𝗕𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗲𝘅𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲. Because I'd like to understand what someone buying Mercer today could actually end up owning. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗖𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁 $CMTG — $𝟭.𝟭𝟭 𝗮 𝗦𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗔𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁 $𝟴.𝟰𝟵 𝗼𝗳 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗕𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 CMTG closed yesterday at $1.11. At that price, the market valued the company's common equity at approximately $157 million, against more than $1.2 billion of reported common equity. I can understand why investors are skeptical. CMTG has troubled commercial real estate loans, properties taken back from borrowers, expensive financing and a $500 million HPS term loan. But something interesting is happening with the assets. The company has started resolving troubled loans and reducing financing. It also has an agreement to sell a distressed multifamily loan for $245 million, or 98% of its carrying value. Some of the values that investors have been questioning are now being tested against actual offers from buyers. When I wrote our Deep Value Report in August, I spent a lot of time on the individual properties. The Park in Santa Monica, Uptown Atlanta, Key Bridge and the Old Chicago Post Office all have very different recovery prospects. Old Chicago alone is worth understanding. CMTG has a $125 million mezzanine position sitting behind $830 million of mortgage debt. Even if the building is worth hundreds of millions, CMTG could still recover very little. Then you have JPMorgan's repo financing, HPS, property-level debt and the ongoing costs of working through these assets. I wanted to know how much of the reported book value could actually make its way back to common shareholders. Our August report goes through the assets, the financing and the possible recoveries individually, including our bear, base and bull valuations per share. With the Q3 results now available, I think it's worth revisiting that analysis. Some of the recent developments are encouraging, although the risks remain substantial. 𝗢𝘂𝗿 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁: Here: cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗠𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 $MERC — 𝗔𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 $𝟬.𝟮𝟬 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲. $𝟰𝟬𝟬 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴. 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗮 𝗺𝗮𝗷𝗼𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝟰𝟬%. Mercer's restructuring is becoming one of the more interesting situations I've researched recently. The company has agreed to eliminate approximately 88% of its existing senior-note debt through an exchange for equity. It will also receive $400 million in new financing. And Peter Kellogg, whose reporting group last disclosed a 40.25% position, has been involved with Mercer for years. But there's something important about that new financing. The investors providing the $400 million receive $420 million in secured notes, plus 40% of the reorganized company's common equity and 40% of its convertible preferred equity. Existing shareholders are expected to receive 8.5% of the common and 3.5% of the preferred, before certain dilution. Meanwhile, management's newly disclosed projections show 𝗢𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗘𝗕𝗜𝗧𝗗𝗔 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 $𝟯𝟭𝟭 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟴. If those projections are achieved, Mercer could be worth considerably more than today's stock-market capitalization. But most of that enterprise value would belong to a very different group of owners. I've examined the seven major operating asset groups, the new financing terms, the creditor priorities and three possible recovery scenarios for the existing shares. 𝗠𝘆 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗗𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗻 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝗴𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗠𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 $MERC — 𝗠𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝘀 $𝟯𝟭𝟭 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟴 𝗘𝗕𝗜𝗧𝗗𝗔. The projections released with Mercer's restructuring agreement show Operating EBITDA recovering from approximately negative $4 million in 2026 to $171 million in 2027 and $311 million in 2028. Management also projects $132 million of unlevered free cash flow in 2028, before the new financing costs. At 𝟱𝘅 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟴 𝗘𝗕𝗜𝗧𝗗𝗔, the operating business would have an enterprise value of approximately $1.56 billion. But here's what I wanted to understand: existing shareholders are expected to retain only 8.5% of the new common equity before certain dilution, along with 3.5% of the new convertible preferred equity. So I went back through the mills, the debt, the financing terms and the ownership structure. I also calculated 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿 / 𝗕𝗮𝘀𝗲 / 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹 recovery scenarios per existing share. Mercer could become a considerably healthier business. How much of that recovery will actually belong to today's shareholders? That's what I examine in my updated FRAGMENTS Special Situation Dossier. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 — 𝗖𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗣𝗮𝗽𝗲𝗿 $CLW 𝗖𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗣𝗮𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗳𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝟮𝟴.𝟴% 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗹𝗲 𝘀𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻. At the $13.69 share price used in our report, its equity is valued at approximately $221 million. Augusta’s operating failures, the implementation of price increases and a management transition have put the company under renewed scrutiny. Our report examines those developments together with the financing agreement. We investigate what lenders can require, how maintenance affects funding needs and what different financing outcomes would mean for existing shareholders. We also revisit Augusta’s economics before Clearwater bought it and examine the subsequent repairs and insurance settlements. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗹𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗺. It is written for investors deciding whether the selloff warrants a position. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗖𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗢𝗻𝗲 $CABO — 𝗔 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗗𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿, 𝗮 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗶𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 $𝟯𝟭 𝗠𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗘𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝘆. Cable One made an interesting disclosure on October 30. The board appointed Paul Keglevic, a former restructuring executive and CEO of Energy Future Holdings, and named him to a special committee evaluating strategic alternatives. He also served on the board of Frontier Communications during its Chapter 11 restructuring. With CABO closing Monday at approximately $5.50 a share, the entire common equity is valued at only $31 million. The company still operates a substantial broadband network, but its financing problems now involve billions of dollars, a disputed MBI acquisition and creditors with very different economic interests. I keep going back to the cash flow. During the first half of 2026, Cable One generated approximately $239 million in operating cash flow and spent $142 million on capital expenditures. That left about $97 million over six months, before debt principal repayments and acquisition payments. And the company is still losing broadband customers. The board's decision to evaluate strategic alternatives deserves attention. A refinancing, asset sales or a broader restructuring could produce very different outcomes for the people who own the common shares today. The appointment itself does not establish that Cable One will file for bankruptcy. Cable One reports its third-quarter results on November 5. I'll be particularly interested in whether the customer losses are slowing and how much cash the business is generating after capex. Our 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 provides the financial groundwork for examining these alternatives. We traced the MBI payments back to 2020, examined both businesses' cash generation, reconstructed the debt maturities and calculated what different equity settlements could mean for existing shareholders. We also revisited our earlier $24-per-share valuation and explained why it can no longer be treated as a reliable price target under the current financing uncertainty. With the board now considering strategic alternatives, those calculations have become even more relevant. The full investigation, including our valuation sensitivities and potential dilution scenarios, is available to paid subscribers. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 — 𝗢𝗻𝗲𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗲 $ONEW 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝘂𝘆𝗲𝗿 𝗧𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗕𝗲 𝗕𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗢𝗻𝗲𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 $𝟵.𝟱𝟬, 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗿𝗲 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗮𝘁 𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝗹𝘆 $𝟭𝟱𝟴 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻. 𝗜𝗻 𝗳𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟮 𝗮𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗲, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗲𝗱 $𝟰𝟵𝟮 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗮𝗰𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻. And here's something I find even more interesting. In 2024, OneWater was reportedly trying to buy MarineMax for $40 a share. MarineMax has since agreed to be acquired for $53 a share, while OneWater has started selling some of its own businesses. So I wanted to know what somebody could realistically pay to acquire OneWater today. There's approximately $352 million in corporate borrowing, another $405 million in inventory financing, and a substantial related-party arrangement involving Global Marine Finance. Anyone interested in buying the company would have to understand all of it. 𝗪𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝗰𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗱𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽𝘀, 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗯𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀, 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗳𝗹𝗼𝘄, 𝗯𝗮𝗻𝗸 𝗮𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀. Then we did the calculations ourselves. What could the individual businesses be worth today? What can OneWater realistically earn as an independent company? What would an acquisition cost, and how much could shareholders actually receive? 𝗢𝘂𝗿 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗹𝘂𝗱𝗲𝘀 𝟭𝟬 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀, 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲. If you're looking at ONEW as a deep value investment or a possible acquisition candidate, I think you'll appreciate how much there is to examine beyond its $158 million market capitalization. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 — 𝗖𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗣𝗮𝗽𝗲𝗿 $CLW Clearwater Paper trades at a substantial discount to its reported assets: 𝟭𝟯.𝟲𝟵 𝗱𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 in our report, against 𝟰𝟵.𝟮𝟬 𝗱𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲. The company owns three integrated paperboard mills supplying cups, food packaging and folding cartons. Our Deep Value Report examines what an investor actually owns at that price. We value each mill separately, investigate its maintenance requirements and account for the debt, retirement obligations and other costs that affect shareholders’ recovery. The full report includes 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘁 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝗿/𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗲/𝗯𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲-𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀, supported by a reconstruction of the company’s operating economics. For investors considering CLW, it provides the work needed to assess whether the discount offers enough protection. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

$CLW $MERC $WFC $XOM $GE

$CLW $SUZ $MERC $CDE $VALE

𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 — 𝗦𝗶𝘅 𝗙𝗹𝗮𝗴𝘀 $FUN Six Flags trades around $𝟳.𝟱𝟬, while an activist’s September 2025 proposal outlined potential value of $𝟯𝟵.𝟮𝟲 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 through a real-estate separation and an operating recovery. JANA has pushed for a sale. With results due Thursday, investors will get another look at the cash these properties generate after the summer season, ahead of the January payment to Georgia’s outside partners. Our Special Situation examines what a purchaser could pay for Cedar Point, Knott’s Berry Farm, Canada’s Wonderland and the rest of the retained portfolio. The report includes 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘁-𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝗱𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿𝘀 for land, hotels, marinas and campgrounds, with transaction comparisons and prices per acre, room and park visit. We test those estimates against cash generation and investment requirements, then work through debt, partnership agreements and sale expenses to calculate possible proceeds per share. Paid subscribers can read the complete property tables, valuation scenarios and financing analysis. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗠𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 $MERC — $𝟭.𝟮𝟳𝟱 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝘀𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗼𝗿 𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗲𝘀. 𝗔𝗻 $𝟴.𝟰 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝗽. On November 2, Mercer closed at $0.126 per share. A few hours later, the company announced an agreement to exchange approximately 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 $𝟭.𝟭𝟮𝟱 in senior notes for equity. Existing shareholders are expected to receive 𝟴.𝟱% 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲𝘀 and 𝟯.𝟱% 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲𝘀. I've spent weeks going through Mercer's pulp mills, lumber operations, mass-timber business, debt agreements and major shareholders. The operating assets are worth examining. But the important question has changed. We now have to determine what the securities offered to existing shareholders are actually worth. I updated my Special Situation Dossier with the restructuring terms, individual asset valuations and the potential recovery for today's shareholders. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗦𝗶𝘅 ($ASIX) — 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗦𝗶𝘅 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝘁 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 $𝟭𝟱.𝟱𝟬 𝗮 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲, 𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝘂𝘀 $𝟮𝟵.𝟱𝟭 𝗼𝗳 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 $𝟮𝟲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗶𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲. Last week, the company announced its selection for $47.4 million in proposed USDA funding toward a $98.1 million ammonia expansion. The funding would cover less than half the budget. How the remaining investment is financed, and what it earns, will determine the benefit to shareholders. Our Deep Value Report values the existing plants site by site, using transactions and project costs, then checks those estimates against nine years of cash generation. We examine the maintenance bill, debt restrictions, tax credits and Hopewell lawsuit before working through the value per share. 𝗦𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗶𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿, 𝗕𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, plus the additional savings a buyer would need to justify a takeover premium. The published ranges exclude the ammonia expansion, giving readers a valuation of the business already operating Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…

𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 — 𝐋𝐢𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐲 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 ($LBTYA) Liberty Global trades around $𝟕.𝟕𝟕, against $𝟐𝟕.𝟎𝟒 𝐨𝐟 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞 at June 30. Investors are paying roughly 𝟐𝟗 𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐲. The company is now valued by the market at approximately $𝟐.𝟔𝟓 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧, despite owning substantial interests in European telecom networks, infrastructure and private businesses. Recent transactions give us more information about those assets. European regulators cleared the €𝟔𝟔𝟗 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 sale of VodafoneZiggo's Dutch towers, with proceeds intended to reduce debt. On October 29, Liberty's egg Power business announced an investment partnership with Tokyo Century covering 212 MW of renewable energy projects. Both developments are relevant to the valuation, although neither means the announced proceeds become freely available cash at Liberty's parent company. Liberty also owns two economic interests in Wyre, where potential buyers have been shortlisted, and is preparing Ziggo Group for a 2027 listing. On November 3, Liberty reports its third-quarter results. The corporate cash balance following July's €1 billion payment to Vodafone deserves particular attention. In our 𝐋𝐢𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐲 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭, we valued the major businesses separately, examined the debt and other obligations ahead of shareholders, and 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞 𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 to estimate what investors are already paying for Wyre. Our model was originally built at $8.92 per share. The stock is now considerably lower, but the financing and realization risks remain. The full report includes our 𝐁𝐞𝐚𝐫, 𝐁𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬, the assumptions behind each business, refinancing sensitivities, and the price where we see a more reasonable margin of safety. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐚𝐯𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐨𝐧 𝐅𝐑𝐀𝐆𝐌𝐄𝐍𝐓𝐒. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.co…