Greg Bayliss retweeted
5th November, 2013
Warrant Officer Class 2 Ian Fisher, aged 42 from Hornchurch, Essex, and of 3rd Battalion The Mercian Regiment, was killed by a vehicle-borne suicide bomber near Kamparak, Helmand Province, Afghanistan
Lest we Forget this brave man who gave his all 🏴 🇬🇧
Greg Bayliss retweeted
Update:
In the 27 months since Labour came to power, we've seen;
• Employer National Insurance increased from 13.8% to 15%.
• The employer NI threshold cut from £9,100 to £5,000.
• The freeze on Income Tax and National Insurance thresholds extended to 2031.
• Capital Gains Tax increased from 10% and 20% to 18% and 24%.
• Business Asset Disposal Relief increased from 10% to 14%, then 18% – and now its lifetime limit halved to £500,000.
• Investors’ Relief raised to 18% and its lifetime limit cut from £10 million to £1 million.
• CGT relief on sales to Employee Ownership Trusts halved.
• Carried interest taxation increased and moved into the Income Tax regime.
• Dividend tax rates increased by two percentage points.
• Savings-income tax rates increased by four percentage points.
• Property-income tax rates increased by four percentage points.
• VCT income tax relief cut from 30% to 20%.
• Most unused pension funds brought into the Inheritance Tax net.
• Agricultural and Business Property Relief capped.
• Inheritance Tax thresholds frozen until 2031.
• The non-dom regime replaced with a tougher residence-based system.
• VAT imposed on private school fees.
• Business-rates relief removed from private schools.
• The Stamp Duty surcharge on second homes and buy-to-let raised from 3% to 5%.
• The Furnished Holiday Lettings regime abolished.
• A new annual surcharge on homes worth £2 million or more.
• Pension salary-sacrifice NI relief capped at £2,000 a year.
• The bank surcharge doubled.
• Capital allowances for plant and machinery cut twice.
• Online gaming duty almost doubled.
• The Energy Profits Levy increased and extended, and its investment allowance scrapped.
• Vaping Products Duty brought in and tobacco duties increased above inflation.
• Vehicle Excise Duty increased for many new cars, with electric vehicles brought in.
• A pay-per-mile tax on electric and plug-in hybrid cars legislated for 2028.
• Air Passenger Duty increased.
• Making Tax Digital extended to more landlords and self-employed people.
Together they represent one of the biggest transfers of wealth from households and businesses to the Treasury in decades – with little to show for it in public services.
Whether you're a business owner employing staff, a parent paying school fees, a farmer planning succession, an entrepreneur building wealth or simply someone trying to save for your family’s future...
- You keep less of what you earn.
- You keep less of what you invest.
- You leave less for your family.
Death by a thousand cuts.
Greg Bayliss retweeted
I earn £100 grand a year.
I have a detached house. 2 cars and my wife is a full time home maker.
I can just about afford this. I probably couldn’t afford the house I own if I was buying for the first time today.
My salary puts me in the top 5% of earners in the UK.
Top 5% to have a similar standard of living to Homer Simpson.
That is a disgrace.
We have a flatter salary distribution than Soviet Russia and the highest taxes and borrowing costs we’ve seen in generations.
Success is almost impossible because our tax system means hard work makes you a stressed out tax cow, not wealthy and certainly not free.
We need something radical.
Less state.
More family.
Less handouts.
More reward for risk.
Instead. Tomorrow, Labour will offer another batch of policies which will send one message to aspirational Brits: why bother.
I read a piece in the FT this week about the price of being middle class in Britain now and it said a couple earning £436,000 combined take home £216,000. That’s a crazy amount of tax, and it doesn't include VAT on purchases, council tax, stamp duty or other taxes (I think does include pension contributions). I can’t stop thinking about it.
Greg Bayliss retweeted
Every time we put petrol into
our cars at a fuel station, the government are fleecing us. And it’s not just the fuel duty and VAT at the petrol pump price.
£70 of petrol at 197.9p a litre buys just 35.37 litres - a partial fill for many cars. Of that £70, £18.73 is fuel duty and £11.67 is VAT. That is £30.40, or 43%, taken by the government before the engine starts.
That £70 itself was already taxed. To have £70 left after 20% income tax and 8% National Insurance, you first earned roughly £97.22. Another £27.22 was taken at source. On this single fill alone, nearly 60% of the money you worked for has already gone to the government.
It does not stop there.
Most drivers also pay Vehicle Excise Duty of around £200 a year simply for the right to use the road. On top of that, the average comprehensive car insurance premium is roughly £650, of which 12% Insurance Premium Tax - about £78 - goes straight to the government. Add those annual charges and the government extraction of our money continues to escalate with endless stealth taxes.
You earn the money. It is taxed. You spend what remains on fuel. It is taxed again. Then you pay again every year just to keep the car legal and insured…which is taxed.
For millions who need a vehicle to reach work, drive children to school or live ordinary lives, this is no longer the cost of petrol or the cost of motoring. It is a stacked system of extortionate tax charges that repeatedly takes from the same earnings. Motorists are not merely paying for fuel. They are being systematically fleeced at every stage by the government.
The cost of living crisis is also a cost of excessive government taxation crisis. So @andyburnham - if you really want to help cash strapped motorists during the cost of living crisis, drastically cut fuel duty and VAT on petrol and diesel rather than just giving advice to use google maps to find the cheapest local fuel station.
Greg Bayliss retweeted
Bridget,
Hope is a lovely word. In your job it has to be.
Your words, exactly:
"Holborn & St Pancras backed Sagal and voted for Labour's message of hope. This is a fantastic victory that gives us real momentum to build on."
Now the numbers you left out.
Your fantastic victory won 12,292 votes. Your majority fell from 11,572 to 3,364. You lost eight thousand votes of cushion.
Turnout was 38.76%. The lowest by-election turnout in England this parliament. Down fifteen points on 2024. The Green vote rose twenty two points. That is your momentum.
So when you say Holborn backed Sagal, about seventeen people in every hundred backed Sagal. Sixty two stayed home.
Now the record.
This is Keir Starmer's old seat. Labour has held it since 1983. The safest ground the party owns. And your message of hope cut the majority by three quarters.
And you are the one saying it, Bridget. Burnham sacked you as Education Secretary in July and demoted you. Then handed you the party chair, which is the job of being pleased. Of course it is fantastic.
Real momentum to build on.
Momentum needs mass. A 38% turnout is not mass. Momentum needs speed. A shrunken majority is not speed.
Your triumphant post drew 88 likes.
The Greens gained twenty two points and you call it hope.
You were demoted and you call it momentum.
Greg Bayliss retweeted
“The fasten seat belts sign is on”.
This is a message I received early this morning from one of the UK’s most experienced, savvy and respected financial traders. Someone I have come to know and trust for the last 25 years.
10-year bond yields are now almost 4.5pc - up some 50 basis points over the last month.
30-year yields this morning went above 6pc - a 28-year high.
Yet the UK’s political and media class continues to focus on party posturing and folksy rhetoric, ignoring the slow-motion disaster that has been happening on the UK’s sovereign bond markets for at least the last 18 months - a disaster that will inevitably, unless we drastically change course, turn into a fully blown market meltdown.
At that point, the UK government won’t be able to borrow enough money to finance our already spiralling debt interest bill.
Britain’s financial management will be taken over by overseas technocrats - that will be the condition of additional borrowing, to maintain the basic functions of the state, as happened in Greece and Italy back in the early 2010s and here in Britain 50 years ago this year (when we were forced in 1976 to apply to the IMF for a bailout).
The austerity then imposed on Britain would make 2010-2019 feel like a picnic - far, far worse than it would be if we took serious action now to control our public finances.
Lower-income households would suffer most - and there would be serious damage done to the UK’s already rapidly-fraying social fabric ….
I have been warning about these looking fiscal dangers publicly, in my newspaper columns and elsewhere, since at least early 2024.
Doing so hasn’t been easy or fun. I have been dismissed and derided by numerous economists, “economists”, officials and policymakers - as well as lots of journalists.
I absolutely don’t want a disastrous 1976-style outcome - which is why I’ve taken the blows and issued the warnings.
The state is too big. Public spending is out of control. Our fiscal rules are a convenient nonsense - designed to kick the can of financial reality into the future. We need to get real … and take bold action to tame the growth of spending, push back a now totally over-bearing state and snap the British economy out of today’s high-tax-high-borrowing-low-growth doom loop - the result of myopic, counter-productive policy-making by successive governments for the last decade and more …
Other prominent economists who agree with me - ie who are financially-literate, can read a yield curve, have a passing interest in economic history and who understand the dangers of some 80pc of UK government borrowing going on debt interest as it currently is - need to chuck “career risk” in the bin, and start saying publicly what so many of them have, for quite a while now, only had the bottle to say to me in private …
Remember: “The fasten seat belts sign is on”
Greg Bayliss retweeted
If the pensioners triple lock is unaffordable according to Labour, so was scrapping the two child benefit cap, so is the ballooning sickness benefits, so is universal credit, so is paying billions to Mauritius, so is illegal immigration.
Labour have the wrong priorities.
Greg Bayliss retweeted
I know we all know this is complete nonsense.
But joking aside, I do think we have to take seriously the underlying message:
Which is that a lot of supposedly educated Leftwing people genuinely believe the biggest threat facing this country right now is the ‘far right’.
And as ridiculous as it seems, that means us.
And if they genuinely believe they are fighting the ‘far right’ (ie Nazis) then really, anything goes.
So whilst we’re out here assuming life will carry on as normal, I don’t we can take anything for granted.
And I really think we’re in for a bumpy ride ahead.
Greg Bayliss retweeted
Remember all the triple lock really does is keep an old age pension (which many have spent between 40-50 years paying into in with NI contributions) up with inflation so pensioners can afford to pay their heating & food bills. We also have one of the poorest pensions in Europe.
Greg Bayliss retweeted
Fifty years ago #OTD, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Denis Healey, was sipping a large gin and tonic in Heathrow’s VIP departure lounge when he learned that sterling was plunging. He rushed back to the Treasury to announce that Britain was applying for a record $3.9 billion IMF bailout.
While Healey negotiated terms with IMF officials, the Prime Minister, Jim Callaghan, tried to make his party understand the gravity of the situation. “For too long this country has been ready to settle for borrowing money abroad to maintain our standards of life,” he told stony-faced Labour delegates in Blackpool. “We used to think that you could spend your way out of a recession, and increase employment by cutting taxes and boosting government spending. I tell you in all candour that that option no longer exists...”
Only when Britain was, as The Economist put it, “bust”, did spending cuts become feasible. Even the NHS saw its budget cut in 1977, after the bailout – by 3 per cent in real terms.
People the world over vote for free stuff for as long as they believe it is there. It takes a cataclysmic shock to convince them that there really is nothing left in the kitty rather than the problem being with greedy politicians or rich tax avoiders.
Are we heading for another such shock under another Chancellor Healey?
Greg Bayliss retweeted
🚨A MESSAGE FROM A VETERAN.
WE ALREADY FUCKING SERVED.
I read that the Government is preparing to mobilise veterans if this country goes to war.
Honestly? You can fuck right off.
I’m a veteran. I’ve already done my bit. I gave my younger years to this country. I wore the uniform, carried the weight and stood beside people I knew would take a bullet for me, just like I would for them. Some of those people never came home. Some came home missing pieces of themselves. Some came home physically intact but mentally fucking destroyed. And some of us are still carrying the shit we saw, heard and experienced years later.
Coming home doesn’t mean you come home whole.
When we were in uniform, we were trusted with weapons, trusted with lives and expected to make decisions in seconds that could mean the difference between living and dying. Then one day the uniform comes off and suddenly you’re just another fucking number.
Where was the Government then?
Where was the proper support when veterans were struggling with their heads, their bodies, their families, their jobs and their lives?
Some ended up homeless. Some ended up broken. Some couldn’t adjust. Some never made it through the darkness.
And while veterans were dealing with all of that, some were being dragged through investigations and courts years and decades after serving. That’s the fucking thanks they got.
People who’ve never heard incoming fire, never felt the ground shake from an explosion, never watched someone beside them get hurt or killed and never had seconds to decide whether to act or fucking die. Yet years later they get to sit somewhere safe with paperwork, hindsight and a cup of coffee and decide what somebody should have done differently.
You don’t know. You weren’t fucking there.
I’m not saying soldiers should be above the law. Of course they shouldn’t. But don’t send young people into situations you wouldn’t have the balls to walk into yourself and then spend decades judging them for decisions they made in seconds.
And now suddenly they want veterans again.
Now they remember us.
Now they know where to find us.
Funny fucking that.
We aren’t weapons sitting in a cupboard waiting for Westminster to need us. We aren’t spare parts. We aren’t fucking disposable. We’re people.
And here’s something Westminster needs to understand,my patriotism belongs to Britain.
It belongs to the people I served alongside.
It belongs to the families who waited for loved ones to come home.
It belongs to the names on the memorials.
It does not automatically belong to whichever politician happens to be sitting in a fucking office in Westminster.
I love my country. I’m proud I served it. I’d stand beside my mates again without hesitation. But don’t confuse that with blind loyalty to politicians. You don’t get to ignore veterans for years and then suddenly remember our service numbers because you need bodies.
We already gave you enough.
Our youth. Our health. Our minds. Our families. Our fucking lives.
Some gave everything.
So before you start talking about mobilising veterans, maybe have a look at the ones you already left behind. The homeless ones. The injured ones. The forgotten ones. The ones fighting battles nobody can see. The families who never got their loved ones back. Then ask yourself why the fuck you’d expect us to trust you with another sacrifice.
I’m a patriot. Always have been. Always will be. But I’m not your fucking pawn.
I served my country. I didn’t sign my life away to Westminster forever.
WE ALREADY FUCKING SERVED. NOW FUCK OFF AND REMEMBER THE ONES WHO ALREADY PAID THE PRICE. 🇬🇧
Greg Bayliss retweeted
Britain Can Find £88 Million for Palestine. Its Army Is Told to Find £30 Million in Cuts
There are moments when two government announcements, placed side by side, tell you more about political priorities than a hundred speeches. Britain has committed more than £88 million this financial year to humanitarian and early recovery support for Palestinians. At home, the British Army has reportedly been ordered to find savings of around £30 million, with major training exercises suspended and reservists losing service days.
Read those figures again. £88 million for Palestine. £30 million squeezed from the training of the men and women whose first responsibility is defending Britain.
The package forms part of a wider £127 million bilateral aid allocation for Palestine in 2026/27, intended for healthcare, clean water, sanitation, waste management and rehabilitation for children injured in the conflict. Those are stated humanitarian purposes, and money earmarked for a hospital is not the same as money handed to a militia.
But that distinction has a history of not holding. The Palestinian Authority already runs a payment scheme, worth over $300 million a year, that rewards convicted terrorists according to sentence length. In Gaza, donors from the EU to Qatar have watched their own materials, water pipes, concrete, fuel, repurposed into rocket casings and tunnel networks, with Hamas leaders openly admitting as much on camera. Money is fungible. Aid that frees up funds for a hospital frees up other funds for something else entirely. Britain has no serious mechanism to guarantee that £88 million stays confined to bandages and water pumps.
Meanwhile the Army is being asked to save roughly one third of that sum, at the exact moment Europe faces its gravest security environment in decades. Defence officials have warned the measures risk weakening Britain's military credibility. Ukraine has shown what modern industrial warfare actually consumes in men, ammunition and armour. NATO wants greater readiness. Somewhere inside Whitehall, someone still decided that training exercises were the place to find £30 million.
The government will say these are different budgets. Of course they are. Treasury accounting can put money into whatever departmental boxes ministers choose. The taxpayer has only one pocket, and that taxpayer is not in a generous mood. Real wages have barely moved in years, mortgage costs remain painful, energy bills are soaring, and household budgets are stretched thin enough that asking people to accept squeezed defence spending while £88 million heads abroad, to a territory whose governing bodies have a documented record of diverting aid toward violence, is a harder sell than ministers seem to appreciate.
It's also worth asking what recipients of British generosity, more broadly, actually think of the country supplying it. Britain's aid budget flows disproportionately toward states and territories where Western values are treated with open contempt, and where women's basic freedoms are routinely stripped away by law. That's not a reason to abandon every humanitarian instinct. It is a reason to stop pretending gratitude, partnership or shared values are guaranteed to follow the cheque.
A government has countless responsibilities, but one precedes all the others: defence of the realm. Without security, everything else is academic.
Britain can afford compassion abroad. It cannot afford compassion abroad purchased through diminished readiness at home, financed by a public already struggling to make ends meet, and directed toward institutions with a track record of letting aid slip toward the wrong hands. If ministers can commit £88 million to Palestine, they should explain to British soldiers why finding £30 million for their training has apparently become too difficult, and to British taxpayers why their patience is the resource nobody in Whitehall thought worth budgeting for.
Greg Bayliss retweeted
Them: "If we give away Chagos and lease them back, then we secure their use for 100 years"
Me: "But if after a few years they nullify the lease, do we get the islands back?"
Them: "No"
Me: "So not secured at all then?"
Them: "Well..."
Me: "...and we already own them?"
Them: "Yes"
Greg Bayliss retweeted
I wouldn’t normally listen to Ed Sheeran much - if at all.
But I’m putting him on my Spotify playlist today.
Not because I necessarily share his politics (or even know what they are).
But because I object to the cancellation machine: the idea that artists must publicly endorse the approved political position - or face walkouts, denunciations and demands that their work be cancelled.
Sheeran has made clear that he wants his concerts to be welcoming entertainment, not political rallies. That is a perfectly legitimate boundary.
So, Ed Sheeran it is today.
Well done, idiots 🙄
Greg Bayliss retweeted
I’m increasingly convinced that the political divide isn’t really left versus right.
It’s between people who will follow their tribe wherever it goes and people willing to stop occasionally and say: hang on, this doesn’t make sense.
Greg Bayliss retweeted
I’ve noticed that the posts of mine that resonate most are often those expressing values that, not very long ago, were almost entirely uncontroversial.
Imagine that: getting attention on the internet for stating what used to be blindingly obvious.
I used to think of myself as a progressive liberal. A wet centrist, perhaps. I tried to see the world positively and had little time for the mean-minded, spiteful rhetoric of parts of the right.
I still don’t consider myself right wing. But I am thoroughly disenchanted with the left.
So where does that leave me?
In the same place as millions of others: politically homeless, longing for a return to principles that people on both left and right once broadly understood.
That women’s rights matter, and sex-based rights must ultimately be based on biology.
That children should grow up with love and support and, where necessary, psychological help, but never be told they were “born in the wrong body” or set on a medical pathway towards irreversible hormonal or surgical interventions that cannot change their sex or somehow make them more “authentic”.
That borders should be secure, while controlled immigration can enrich a country economically and culturally.
That free speech is essential to a healthy democracy, because bad ideas must be exposed and defeated rather than silenced.
That freedom of religion matters, but nobody has the right to impose their religious beliefs on everyone else. Religion must remain open to criticism, ridicule and satire. Criticising an idea is not the same thing as hating a race. Blasphemy laws are backward-looking and profoundly un-British.
That justice should be blind. One law for everyone. People should be judged by the content of their character rather than the colour of their skin. No double standards. No cultural excuses for appalling behaviour.
Yet somehow we have reached a point where politicians can insist that men are women and expect everyone else to deny the evidence of their own eyes; where children suffering from gender dysphoria are “affirmed” rather than reassured, supported and given the time and space to grow up in peace; where people can face police action over things written online while genuinely hateful demonstrations take place on our streets; and where concerns about uncontrolled migration from countries with deeply regressive values are routinely dismissed as bigotry.
So yes, I’m frustrated. Disenchanted. Thoroughly fed up.
And it is especially disappointing to me that the BBC, my own employer, funded by all of us, has too often amplified some of the ideological assumptions that helped bring us here.
So I’ll keep speaking out.
And I’m grateful to anyone who listens.
Greg Bayliss retweeted
The exact opposite of what Labour heavyweight, Denis Healey, said in 1969:
“Once we cut defence expenditure to the extent where our security is imperilled, we have no houses, we have no hospitals, we have no schools. We have a heap of cinders.”
🚨 BREAKING: Andy Burnham suggests he won't cut benefits to pay for defence spending
"National security cannot come at the expense of social security"
#PMQs
Greg Bayliss retweeted
John Healey resigned as Defence Secretary because he said the Government’s failure to fund defence properly would make Britain less safe. He demanded 3% by 2030 and presented his resignation as a matter of principle.
Now he is Chancellor and suddenly that principle can wait. The 3% commitment is being pushed off to another Spending Review. The urgency has disappeared. The man who resigned because the money wasn’t there is now the man hiding behind process and spin to explain why the money still isn’t there.
So what exactly did John Healey resign over?
Either he meant what he said as Defence Secretary, in which case he is now knowingly accepting a settlement he warned would leave Britain less safe. Or he didn’t, and his supposedly principled resignation was a calculated political manoeuvre to help bring down Keir Starmer and secure his own advancement under Burnham.
Neither explanation is remotely acceptable.
You cannot make the defence of the country your great point of principle when it suits your political ambitions, then quietly abandon it once those ambitions have been rewarded.
A resignation on principle is supposed to cost you something. Healey’s appears to have earned him the Treasury.
That makes his retreat now worse than hypocrisy. It calls into question the integrity of the resignation itself.
Britain’s security is too important to be used as a prop in a Cabinet power play. If Healey believed 3% by 2030 was necessary to keep Britain safe, he should deliver it. If he no longer believes that, he owes the country an explanation of what changed.
Otherwise his great act of principle increasingly looks like exactly what it was supposed not to be: a cowardly and calculated piece of political theatre.
ft.com/content/fc925436-4bcb…
Greg Bayliss retweeted
This is what being hounded actually looks like. An academic has been suspended, not for professional misconduct or plagiarism or bad teaching, but because his opinions are unpopular.
Academic who accused Jason Arday of plagiarism suspended by university bbc.in/4xbJuk1



































