Khawar Ghumman

I write in @FT that Iran’s leaders suspected that the MoU was a temporary retreat by the US, intended to relieve pressure on the global economy and prepare for another round of war. Iran’s current rulers believe that any display of restraint will only invite further American pressure. To deter the US, and to compel it to negotiate in earnest for an end to the war and a broader nuclear deal that would give Tehran the security and economic relief it craves, they believe Iran has to be aggressive and escalate the conflict beyond what the US is prepared to countenance. The one point of leverage Iran is not prepared to part with is its claim to the Strait of Hormuz and its ability to control access to it. Losing dominance in the strait would leave Iran without any leverage in future negotiations. Iran’s leaders have decided that retaining control of the strait is essential to securing future wins at the negotiating table and ensuring that the US implements the deal rather than walking away from it. ft.com/content/22fdb2d5-b454…