L/S equities stuff mostly. Europe & US. Hedonist. Only dead fish go with the flow
Geneva / Paris
Joined November 2018
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I'd assume that today was painful for a lot of L/S / Low-net HFs in London. P&L is thin and is getting creamed, looks like risks limits are being hit.
I don't know if today is the last day of the momo sell-off but from here difficult not to turn constructive on names such as $NOK
Honteux. Vivement l'intervention de la BCE & merci mr. Kasbarian de continuer à dénoncer les pleutres qui peuplent le reste de l'hémicycle.
$ONON - announcing $1b SBB which is essentially 15% of the FF whilst Co is net cash & management is buying, 20% EBITDA cagr to '29, entry into football + golf to scale premium apparel & visibility, whilst maintaining GM at 65% + EBITDA margin u/g vs. CSSe? Yet stock is trading on 13x FY27e.
I think that should do.
Pour une fois je suis d’accord avec elle
Dieu sait qu’elle est souvent moquée mais il faut avoir l’honnêteté de reconnaître que cette intervention lucide, synthétique et concernée de @marinetondelier à la sortie de l’Élysée est bien au-dessus de celles d’autres candidats à la Présidentielle
$RWE - looking cheap here. S&T + flexgen earnings at €70+ TTF implies significant ST upgrades, catalyst pathway setting up nicely as they'll likely announce a hyperscaler collab. on US + EU DC build-out as they can offer OCGT + RES power w. LNG pipeline connection & have the existing sites in Europe. + biz. is evolving towards regulated one w. further stake in Amprion (German TSO). 17% EPS CAGR 'till 2031, completely overlooked stock imo.
$SSE / $ENGI also clear opportunities here.
Agreed 100%
#Oil keeps breaking higher. Brent is now above $100.
At these oil prices, $AXL.V is starting to look like one of the most compelling investment opportunities we see anywhere in the market.
If oil remains around current levels for an extended period, the valuation becomes extremely difficult to ignore.
Based on our estimates:
• 📈 EV / Operating Cash Flow falls below 1×, meaning the company could generate its entire current enterprise value in operating cash flow in less than 12 months.
• 💰 Even after deducting this year’s capex, the business still trades at an exceptionally attractive cash flow multiple.
• 🛢️ Virtually no hedging, so almost every additional dollar of Brent flows directly into cash flow.
• 🚀 A major company-specific catalyst, completely independent of oil prices, could materially re-rate the shares on its own.
• The largest historical overhang has significantly derisked, while today’s geopolitical backdrop provides meaningful additional upside.
In our view, $AXL.V is becoming one of the highest-conviction ideas in our entire portfolio and one of the best ways to gain exposure to sustained higher oil prices. If our thesis plays out, we believe the stock has the potential to deliver tens of percent of upside over the coming months, even before considering longer-term optionality.
Our full investment thesis includes a detailed valuation model, downside analysis, scenario analysis and an explanation of why we believe the downside is unusually well protected.
The full write-up is available on our Substack (link bellow and in bio).
#Oil #Brent #Energy #CanadianStocks #ValueInvesting #Investing
$DR0G - FY26e guidance u/g to €365m implying shares are now trading on 1.3x EV/EBITDA inc. proceeds from sales of 5m Almonty shares w. 5.5m shares remining (EV calculation at book value vs. much higher market value) & converts of c.4m ~€160m.
Shares only up 5% on today's move, don't know what the market needs.
Oh and guidance is based on $75/bbl
AnalysteDuComptoir retweeted
Donc LFI justifie le lynchage de Barbara Butch par sa signature d’une tribune en faveur d’une loi contre l’antisémitisme. Loi qui n’a jamais été votée.
On lui reproche donc une opinion dans une démocratie.
Bel exemple de totalitarisme.
If ever someone is looking for a cheap oil stock, $DR0 is the one...
$ALM commenced ore processing at Sangdong. looking for 40-50% upside which wld value $DR0 4.9% stake at €290m. Add €30m in other junior minors & ND €80m.
EV-ex ALM ~€160m implied shares are trading <1x 27e EBITDA at $75 WTI & $3.5/mcf & 1.15 USD/EUR.
Free lunch!
$ALM commenced ore processing at Sangdong. looking for 40-50% upside which wld value $DR0 4.9% stake at €290m. Add €30m in other junior minors & ND €80m.
EV-ex ALM ~€160m implied shares are trading <1x 27e EBITDA at $75 WTI & $3.5/mcf & 1.15 USD/EUR.
Free lunch!
Deutsche Rohstoff has a 9.5% stake in tungsten miner $ALM (+900% in 1y to €184m) whilst $DR0 market cap is ~€220m. Implied EV of the stub US O&G biz is €158m on ND €122m. Guidance for 25e EBITDA is €130m (1.1x EV/EBITDA) stock should 3x imo. This is a bargain :)
Here are my top 10 core holding as of the end of H1 26. Been a decent YTD even if I got burned being long energy into the sell-off.
- ASML
- BESI
- Siemens Energy
- Atalaya Mining
- Vusion Group
- AMS Osram
- Umicore
- Deutsche Rohstoff
- Puig
- Cenergy Holding
AnalysteDuComptoir retweeted
🔴SALAIRES : en France, le travail ne paye plus.
Depuis 1950, le coût employeur a explosé par rapport à ce que touche vraiment le salarié.
Il représente près du double de ce que reçoit le salarié.
$AL2SI (+92%) & $DR0 (+33%) delivering wonderfully YTD. $DRO room for more brent prices spiking on US/Iran potential tension & tungsten prices hovering at ATH, on top of 46% increase in proven O&G reserves leading to 40% NPV increase on convervatives forward ~$60/bbl & $3/mmbt
AnalysteDuComptoir retweeted
j'aurais plutôt dit ce graphique qui montre l'emprise de la sphère publique dans la vie économique et sociale, mais c'est une question de point de vue.
Pour comprendre la discussion budgétaire qui se clôt il faut objectiver, avec lucidité et sérénité, une réalité désormais structurante :
L’emprise inédite des milliardaires sur la vie démocratique de la nation.
gabrielzucman.substack.com/p…
Deutsche Rohstoff has a 9.5% stake in tungsten miner $ALM (+900% in 1y to €184m) whilst $DR0 market cap is ~€220m. Implied EV of the stub US O&G biz is €158m on ND €122m. Guidance for 25e EBITDA is €130m (1.1x EV/EBITDA) stock should 3x imo. This is a bargain :)
$ALM stake now worth €230m or all of Rohstoff market cap. You're getting a €130m+ high quality US O&G portfolio for nearly 0.
I've doubled my position today.
They’ve already started at a small scale. In the past management has highlighted $ALM was undervalued so they must have a precise idea of the underlying value They’ll probably wait until Sangdong reaches steady state production in the backhalve of this year at these levels.