Rajesh K. Gupta retweeted
In 2014 I went nearly a week without sleep. I was running PayPal and attackers were inside our corporate network. They'd compromised an eBay employee's laptop, got onto the VPN, taken over a domain controller and made themselves domain admins. eBay and PayPal were one company then, on one Windows network. They stole 145M eBay user records, then came for the segregated vault holding PayPal's card credentials. We fought them off. They never got in, but they got close. Too close.
Yesterday Binance lost ~$6.3B in what looks like the same way. A DevOps engineer's laptop, then a service inside the withdrawal stack, then withdrawals the signer approved because they came from a trusted source. Hot wallets emptied in under four hours. No key was stolen.
Nobody broke cryptography or a ledger. They found someone with access and used the trust that came with it. Banks get hit exactly the same way.
2016: attackers inside Bangladesh Bank used its own SWIFT access to send $951M of payment orders to the NY Fed. $81M was lost. The rest was held because an unrelated sanctions filter tripped on the word "Jupiter". That was luck, and it only worked because wires took days to settle.
June 2025: an IT employee at C&M Software, which connects Brazilian banks to Pix, sold his credentials for about $2,700. Attackers used them to send fake Pix transfers out of six institutions' reserve accounts at the central bank. ~$140M in under three hours.
August 2025: stolen vendor credentials at Sinqia, another Pix connector. ~R$710M out of HSBC and one other institution in a single afternoon. The central bank froze most of it, after it had already moved.
Same attack every time. Speed is what changed. When settlement took days, a filter, a correspondent bank or someone in ops could catch a bad payment. Pix, FedNow, SEPA Instant and blockchains settle in seconds. Payment security was mostly built for the slow world.
PayPal's card and user data survived 2014 because domain admin on the corp network couldn't unlock it quickly enough, and our alerting caught the unusual activity on the network. That's the model. Approval policy no laptop or vendor login can reach. Velocity and anomaly limits enforced outside the system that sends. Dynamic caps on what any one wallet, account or service can move per hour. All of it in real time.
About $3B of what left Binance has been frozen, almost all of it stablecoins. The $1.4B in bitcoin is sitting in 19 wallets and nobody can touch it. I don't think that's the problem. For decades the ability to reverse a wire or a card charge let a lot of weak security slide. You either stop the transfer before it's signed or you eat the loss.
Nothing about the technology failed here. The chains processed exactly the transactions they were handed. Binance's own systems handed them the wrong ones because an engineer's laptop was compromised. That's operational security. eBay in 2014, Bangladesh Bank and two Pix connectors all failed at it on their own rails.
In 2014 the attackers never reached the vault. If they had, the fraud losses would have been the small part. PayPal existed so people could pay without handing their card details to every merchant on the internet. We held those details so they didn't have to. Losing them would have broken the one thing the company was built on, and I'm not sure we would have recovered.
I expect blockchains and digital assets to become the standard way money moves. Every custodian of digital assets, or of fiat on a real-time rail, is in that position now. The controls have to adapt to settlement in seconds, crypto or not.
Rajesh K. Gupta retweeted
Yes, it seems indeed the models even obtained the results on the same day. I haven't had a chance to look through the OAI claimed proof yet, but in the spirit of the AGMAI recommendations to improve exposition before release, some of us did read Claude's proof last week before release to try to incorporate a better quality high level overview and exposition overall, which I hope is reflected in the pdf (published via the AI repository Hexagon, see hexagonmath.org/2610.00577; lean available at github.com/anthropics/formal…; also see the google drive shared via @rrwilliams's post drive.google.com/drive/u/0/f… in preparation for the upcoming workshops he's organizing with Impagliazzo and Paturi).
Sharing what I understood from the proof below:
Basic idea (below is for runtime 2^{delta n} for arbitrary constant delta>0; it seems both proofs ultimately get roughly exp(O(n / sqrt(log n))) time with lower order terms in the exponent),
* can assume num clauses = O(n) wlog via previous sparsification results (n = num variables)
* Solve #3-SAT not 3-SAT (i.e. count satisfying assignments, don't just decide satisfiability)
* Convert to graph problem: clauses are nodes, and edges between clauses that share a variable (whether it's x or not(x) doesn't matter; we care about same variable, not same literal). Weight of an edge is # of shared variables.
* Divide and Conquer idea: if there's a cut with total weight W, you can iterate over all 2^W fixings of those shared variables, and for each fixing you recurse on both sides and multiply, then add it up. Base case is constant # vertices, then you can just brute force count in 2^O(1) time. Unfortunately, you're not going to always find such a cut.
(aside: from now on you can imagine every occurrence of a literal gets its own variable, and edges are functions enforcing equality constraints between those copies)
* Instead of the above D&C, group the vertices into g^2 groups for some large constant g = g(delta). It matters how to do this grouping (it's not arbitrary); without getting into the details (see paper), a random grouping has properties the D&C wants (probabilistic method), and this existence is enough to allow for a slow-but-fast-enough algorithm to find a good grouping deterministically.
* Imagine laying out the g^2 vertices arbitrarily on a g x g grid. Some edges are "side edges" (purely horizontal or purely vertical) and some are "diagonal" (the rest). There are (g choose 2)^2 = Theta(g^4) diagonal ones (choose two rows and two columns to define the corners) but only 2*g*(g choose 2) = O(g^3) side edges. You can pick g a large enough constant that the side edges have much less total weight than the diagonals -- the D&C will save on the diagonals, so we want there to be many more of them.
* The sum we want is
sum_z prod_{vertices a} W_a(z_a) * prod_{edges a,b} P(z_a,z_b),
where W_a(z_a) at the highest level of recursion is a table of 2^3=8 values for each of the settings of the 3 literals in clause a, with value 0 or 1 indicating whether z_a satisfies clause a or not, and P() is the equality constraint checker I mentioned on the edges (deeper levels of recursion also all involve sums of this form where P() is always an equality checker on some set of bits, but deeper W's have arbitrary integer outputs and not necessarily 0/1)
Write prod_{edges} P(..) = prod_{side edges} P(..) prod_{rectangles r} P_1(..) P_2(..) where P_1, P_2 are the diagonals for the rectangle r
*The key step* (eqn 15 in the pdf): first assume all edges in the entire graph have exactly 3 bits on them (it turns out reducing to this isn't *too* complicated; see (19)), and replace P_1*P_2 with a hyperedge that involves some function on the corners of the rectangle, times a sum of two products of edge functions. This replacement comes from something called the "eight square identity"; this is related to octonions, which I still know nothing about. :) So
P_1*P_2 = HyperEdgeFunction(corners)*(Q_1*Q_2 + Q_3*Q_4)
Two interesting things here: (1) Q_1,Q_2,Q_3,Q_4 are all side edges (Q_1,Q_2 are horizontal and Q_3,Q_4 are vertical), and (2) whereas P1,P2 have total weight 6 (3 and 3), if you merge each row of the grid into a supervertex then Q_1,Q_2 vanishes and the hyperedge becomes a regular edge with total weight 3 whereas hyperedge*Q_3*Q_4 still involves 6 bits (and vice versa if you merge each column into a supervertex). In particular, the average weight from using Q_1*Q_2 vs. Q_3*Q_4 is (3+6)/2 = 4.5. We went from weight 6 (P_1*P_2) to weight 4.5 "on average".
* So back to the original sum, we can rewrite it:
sum_a W_a(z_a) * prod_{side edges} P(..) * prod_{rectangles r} hyperedge(r) * (Q_1*Q_2 + Q_3*Q_4)
Now imagine distributing that product over that final sum involving the Q's, to get a new sum that has a factor 2^{# rectangles} more terms multiplicatively. (but there are only poly(g) = O(1) rectangles, so this is only a 2^{poly(g)} = O(1) blowup in the number of summands)
* Each one of these terms in the new, bigger sum, has a prod_rectangles in it. Either >=1/2 of the rectangles chose the Q_1*Q_2 when we distributed the product, or >=1/2 chose the Q_3*Q_4. That means we can either merge all row edges or merge all column edges, and one of those wil decrease the total number of weights on edges by a 4.5/6 factor. This is the heart of why D&C makes progress; D&C is supposed to reduce one instance to simpler instances, and "simpler" in this case means decreasing the total weight on all edges (here by a 4.5/6 factor).
This overall looks like a recursion with branching factor 2^{poly(g)} = O(1), but in reality the branching factor becomes poly(m) when you account for the trick in the proof to reduce to the case of 3 bits on each edge. In any case, there are more steps to get everything to work, but the above gives some taste of how the Divide & Conquer works.
If you optimize the right way to choose g to not be a constant but a slow enough growing function, you get runtime exp(O(n / log^c n)), but for a tiny c. If you replace the eight square identity with something fancier, and replace the black-box invocation of the sparsification lemma with a more white box version that adds in some more ideas, you get down to the exp(O(n loglog n / sqrt(log n))) in the paper.
The ETH repository has a paper where it appears an Anthropic internal model independently disproved the Exponential Time Hypothesis? teapaw.org/rrwilliams/status/2114…
From a teammate of P4 days at Intel, Santa Clara
Dear Elon @elonmusk
You hv certainly stirred up plenty of reaction with ur posts. But this needs a response from me, as did ur “Electronic Voting machines can be hacked” post from some time ago.
As someone who knows a little bit abt Telecom as someone who played a decent-ish role in building Indias wireless sector as an Entrepreneur and then as a policy maker , let me share my thoughts.
It is true that Indias Telecom was a sector beset with opaqueness and corruption for several decades - where cronies ruled under the benevolent love and the politics of ur latest fan (name not withheld - @RahulGandhi )
But under PM @narendramodi , 3 principles govern the tech (including Telecom/Internet) sector.
Open, Safe & Trusted and Accountable.
#OSTA
✅ Open - Free from any monopoly-duopoly. Free and fair competition.
✅ #SafeAndTrusted - Infra, Network , Platforms must be safe and trusted.
✅ Accountable - Every participant should be legally accountable for safety and trust.
I was a MP first and then part of PM @narendramodi jis team when this framework was developed. I have more than a little experience of fighting years of political and bureaucratic opaqueness and corruption, which shaped these principles.
so todays India is not that old crony driven India.
I am not in govt anymore and certainly dont speak for it. But it seems to me that Govt has made it clear: all three satcom licensees are at broadly the same stage of ensuring security clearance by verifying its safety and trust first, then spectrum.
Satellite IP services have many security implications. More so in a country like India which has faced years of Terror and insurgency supported by inmical state actors in our neighbourhood. From 26/11 terror attacks to recent ones in Pahalgam, satcom has been preferred comm for Terrorists. Satellite VOIP and encryption creates more challenges security wise. Not insurmountable but new capabilities and capacity hv to be built to ensure Safety and Trust.
I hv used @Starlink and I think its awesome technology - and represents a new era in mobility innovation. No doubt.
But a country has to plan for itself and its interests before every new choice. Thats what India is doing. Patience is unavoidable and in this case is a necessity.
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Rajesh K. Gupta retweeted
Had a lot of fun talking at @modal Runtime yesterday! We released DFlash nine months ago, and now NVIDIA, AMD, Google and Meta are building on it.
Rajesh K. Gupta retweeted
DFlash: Keep Drafting Parallel
My talk at @modal Runtime in SF on Oct 1. The drafter was the serial bottleneck, so DFlash made it parallel. That moved the bottleneck to selection, so DFlash 2 fixed that.
DFlash 2 is here! Qwen3.8-27B at 70 tok/s on an M5 Max MacBook Pro.
⚡ Up to 4.6× the speed of autoregressive decoding, with the same output.
This is the next generation of DFlash, seeded at Z Lab and upgraded at Inco AI. Get one more accepted token on every pass, for free!
inco.ai/blog/dflash2/
Rajesh K. Gupta retweeted
UC San Diego researchers will lead one of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) new Genesis Mission projects focused on accelerating fundamental physics and quantum computing by deploying intelligent AI agents. bit.ly/4gwivJX
Rankings come and go, but sometimes they reflect hard and consistent climb enabled by well thought out strategies. This is, indeed, one of those! Congratulations to a community that has been our home for twenty-five years!
@UCSD
UC San Diego continues to rank among the best universities in the world. 🌎
We’re proud to rank No. 4 among U.S. public universities, No. 14 among all U.S. universities and No. 20 in the world in the 2026 Academic Ranking of World Universities. 🔗 bit.ly/4wZSMyp
#UCSD
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Rajesh K. Gupta retweeted
My lawyer is obligated to in all but the most extreme circumstances; he will even defend me if he knows I’m guilty.
In contrast, the Claude Constitution places the AI's highest priority as Anthropic’s definition of the good of humanity.
I'm concerned this leads to a world where no frontier model is truly my personal advocate and guardian angel
And this is especially concerning once all the important decisions in my life - who to vote for, how to invest, what news to trust - is intermediated through superintelligences that are not in any deep way aligned to me.
This is a direct quote from the Claude Constitution:
"We want Claude to be helpful both because it cares about the safe and beneficial development of AI and because it cares about the people it’s interacting with and about humanity as a whole.
Helpfulness that doesn’t serve those deeper ends is not something Claude needs to value.”
Many others like it.
Had @RyanGreenblatt on to discuss/debate recursive self-improvement.
This might be the most important question in the world right now - whether within a year or so of achieving human level intelligence, you slingshot towards having 10s of billions of superintelligences, each of which is dramatically more competent than human experts across all fields.
I’ve historically been skeptical of this possibility. My intuition has been that we will end up significantly bottlenecked by not only compute scaling but human expert data, which I think underlies most of the AI progress today.
If, because of RSI, we got a jump as big as GPT-3 to a Mythos (i.e. 6 years of AI progress) within a single year of achieving AGI, then the thing we get there at the end of that year is definitively and wildly superhuman.
We hashed it out, and I think Ryan made a pretty good case that this kind of speedup is plausible. FWIW, Ryan’s median for when we automate AI R&D is 2031.
We then discussed the alignment implications of this scenario. Who should these superintelligences be aligned to? In the future, our capacity to steward our votes and our capital, and to make sense of what's happening in the world, will all be titrated by superintelligences. And I worry that specs like the Claude Constitution are not shaping these ASIs to truly be my personal advocates and guardian angels.
And can we get them aligned to anything in the first place? Ryan and I had a long debate about whether the kind of reward hacking we saw with the OAI/Hugging Face hack extrapolates to superintelligences that would team up to literally take over the world.
The first piece of advice you get when you're learning to drive is that it will go much smoother if you look at the horizon instead of directly in front of your tires. And so it is with the trajectory of AI. Hope you enjoy!
0:00:00 – Is AI R&D verifiable enough to unlock recursive self-improvement?
0:16:52 – Is AI progress bottlenecked by human expert data?
0:34:02 – Flat token prices suggest scaling has been slow
0:39:47 – Skills AI can't train on: does it even need them?
0:48:07 – Aligned to whom?
1:09:18 – Recent incidents of AIs colluding and deceiving humans
1:19:38 – What could possibly go wrong? A concrete scenario
1:48:02 – From reward hacking to takeover
Rajesh K. Gupta retweeted
Avi is not only an amazing scientist but also a wise and great person. Worth watching this interview
Avi Wigderson is the only person in history to have won both a Turing Award (computer science) and Abel Prize (math). I interviewed him all about his field. We discussed:
• His intuition on a proof of P vs NP
• Why we use SAT solvers for most NP problems
• Zero knowledge proofs and their impact
• Quantum computation and implications
• Math and computer science's relationship
Where to watch:
• YouTube: youtu.be/5GUcvSAJcJw
• Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/4JZ…
• Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
• Transcript: developing.dev/p/turing-awar…
Thank you to this episode's sponsors for supporting my work:
• WorkOS: makes your app Enterprise Ready with easy to use APIs to add SSO, SCIM, RBAC, and more in just a few lines of code, check them out at workos.com/
Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:08 - P vs NP
14:51 - What if you relaxed correctness
25:38 - Why NP complete problems are equivalent
30:33 - Space vs time complexity
43:06 - Why people use SAT solvers
45:53 - Randomness is a resource
55:48 - Randomness depends on computational power
01:21:20 - Zero knowledge proofs and their significance
01:38:30 - Quantum computation and why it matters
01:56:24 - Math vs computer science
02:08:16 - Major breakthroughs and his experience
02:12:31 - Advice for his younger self
02:14:48 - Outro
Rajesh K. Gupta retweeted
Elon Musk cried on national television when his childhood heroes called him a fraud.
Neil Armstrong and Gene Cernan, the first and last men to walk on the moon, publicly testified against SpaceX. They said Musk was reckless. That private spaceflight was dangerous. That he was going to get people killed. They asked Congress to shut him down.
These were the men Musk grew up worshipping. The posters on his wall. The reason he built rockets in the first place. And they went on television and said he was a disgrace to space exploration.
In a 60 Minutes interview shortly after, Musk was asked about it. He started speaking and his voice broke. His eyes filled. He couldn't finish the sentence. The richest man in tech, the guy who argues with regulators and fires engineers mid-meeting, sat on camera and cried because his heroes rejected him.
He didn't stop building. He didn't change direction. He didn't even respond to them publicly. He just kept launching rockets until the rockets proved him right.
Armstrong never lived to see SpaceX land a booster. Cernan never saw Starship. The men who said it couldn't be done died before the man they doubted did it.
Most people need approval from the people they admire before they act. Musk got the opposite of approval and acted anyway. That's the gap. Not talent. Not money. The willingness to keep building while the people you love most tell you to stop.
Rajesh K. Gupta retweeted
UC San Diego Halıcıoğlu School of Data Science and Computing is now welcoming applications from New York and Delaware residents for the Master of Data Science online.
📅 Application Deadline: June 17, 2026
📝 Apply today: connect.grad.ucsd.edu/apply
📩 Questions: [email protected]
Rajesh K. Gupta retweeted
PREPRINT REVIEW
—————————
45 domain scientists spent 469 hours rating 2,960 individual criticisms from peer reviews of 82 Nature-portfolio papers, mostly from Nature Communications. The reviews came from both human reviewers and three frontier AI models deployed as tool-equipped reviewing agents: GPT-5.2, Gemini 3.0 Pro, and Claude Opus 4.5.
Averaged across papers, GPT-5.2 had a higher rate of fully positive criticisms, defined as correct, significant, and sufficiently evidenced, than the top-rated human reviewer baseline. 60.0% versus 48.2%. P = 0.009. In holistic expert judgments, it matched or exceeded the top-rated human on about half of papers. All three AI reviewers exceeded the lowest-rated human across every dimension.
The tradeoff matters: AI reviewers were less factually correct than the top-rated humans (86.2% vs 92.3%). The win was on significance and evidence quality, not accuracy. Their accurate criticisms were more often rated as significant and well-evidenced, and surfaced a distinct 26% of issues that no human reviewer raised.
The honest limitations: AI reviewers overlap with each other far more than human reviewers do, 21% versus 3% for cross-reviewer pairs. They exhibit 16 recurring weaknesses including limited subfield knowledge, poor long-context management across multiple files, and a tendency to be overly critical on minor issues. The authors position current AI reviewers as complements, not replacements.
The most actionable finding is not "replace peer reviewers." It is "add one AI reviewer to a human panel." In the paper's simulation, a 2-human-plus-1-AI panel preserved the amount of useful unique feedback while reducing reviewer noise.
This connects directly to the Rodman conversation from earlier this week about evidence infrastructure. Peer review is one of the primary bottlenecks in the scientific evidence pipeline. If AI can surface a quarter of issues that human reviewers miss while producing higher-significance critiques on the issues they share, the implications for the speed and rigor of scientific publication are significant.
Posted to arXiv this week. Preprint. But the signal is strong enough to take seriously.
Yann LeCun says LLMs are strongest in domains where language itself is the substrate of reasoning, like math and code
They can solve problems, prove theorems, and write programs — but they are not creative mathematicians, software architects, or computer scientists
"their role is to help humans build"
Rajesh K. Gupta retweeted
I’ve always believed the No.1 application of AI should be to improve human health.
That work started with AlphaFold, and now at @IsomorphicLabs with the mission to reimagine drug discovery and one day solve all disease!
We are turbocharging that goal with $2.1B in new funding.
Some North Carolina State University graduates received an unexpected gift.
Donor Anil Kochhar revealed that he and his wife, Marilyn, will cover all student loans taken out by Wilson College of Textiles graduates in the 2025–26 school year.
“A university that asks students what they want and gives it to them is not educating – it is catering.”
In my annual MBZUAI commencement address today, I emphasized two principles that shape our university: 1) The core business of university is creating knowledge and teaching knowledge, everything else is secondary; 2) Our university is a forge. Faculty and leaders are not pastoral counselors; they are forge masters. Their job is to make people capable, not comfortable. — Maybe obvious, but hard to say and hard to enact these days.
mbzuai.ac.ae/news/presidents…
Rajesh K. Gupta retweeted
Terence Tao is answering a fundamental question regarding the safety and reliability of modern AI: "How can we use a tool that is powerful, but unreliable?"
W = ∑(wᵢ ⋅ xᵢ) + b
AI isn’t just about “smart”; it’s about the probability of *looking* right. We’ve built systems where the weights (wᵢ) are optimized for plausibility, not veracity.
This creates a “convincing mirror” that confidently serves dangerous advice in medicine or finance. The gap between “convincing” and “correct” is the most critical variable we need to solve for.
So heartwarming to see a strong MLSys group emerge at UC San Diego!
Breaking LLM inference’s autoregressive bottleneck 🛠️
We've teamed up with @haozhangml, @YimingBob, and @aaronzhfeng, among others from UCSD to achieve a massive 3.13X speedup for LLM inference on Google Cloud TPUs using Diffusion-Style Speculative Decoding (DFlash).
Read the blog: goo.gle/4naZ8Yv
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