We provide commercial risk management services & advanced quantitative analytics for commodity hedgers inside of a leading investment bank (Hilltop Securities).
Joined April 2022
- Tweets4.5K
- Following527
- Followers3.4K
- Likes9.1K
YIKES
“Analysts expect companies in the S&P 500 to report a 30% jump in third quarter earnings from a year ago just two companies Nvidia & Micron account for 34% of that growth” And only 10 companies account for roughly two-thirds of the profit growth.
wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-e…
US total #cattle placements July-September -583,000/hd from 2025. SHOCKER!!!
RIPPER!!! in the cash markets.
Nebraska #cattle placements during September 490K head -16% YoY = SHOCKER!!!
October USDA #cattle on feed results....another big placement miss by the pre-report estimates. September placements -12% YoY compared to the pre-report estimate of -8% YoY.
Calling the feeder and live trades firm on Monday.
Good luck out there!!!
REMINDER.....October #Cattle on Feed in 40 minutes, 2 pm CST. Bloomberg's pre-report estimates are below.
Good luck out there!!!
If we had to guess, today's #corn export sale to "Unknown" is not Mexico or Canada
Argentina #wheat is on track for a large crop. Yet, according to the Rosario Board of Trade "many agronomists" cite overcast skies as a potential yield drag. Not rain, snow, sleet, hail or dryness. Cloudy skies. Lots of questions about those genetics.
Compared to last week, the choice beef cutout is losing some steam. Trimmings and grinds are a major DUMPER!!! as imports of Latin American beef food the market. Ribs are a little bit softer but the bid market marches on.
YTD 2026 #cattle slaughter has declined by 1.6 million from 2025 or about 3 weeks of slaughter. Not too bad for having a major plant close and some smaller processing facilities down.
Beef production is down 828 million pounds, or basically 1.5 weeks of slaughter.
Just a visual reminder of what the supply side of supply & demand looks like in #cattle....
The good news: Ukraine's #wheat production rose by 3 mmt YoY to 25.5 mmt.
The bad news: Russia keeps attacking Ukraine's ports which is slowing exports.
The ugly: US HRW exports are still floundering.
Estimated CME Feeder #cattle index for 10/22 +$.78 @ $343.56/cwt on moderate volume, 816 head.
Except for Aberdeen, SD prices at all auctions were higher compared to last week.
Much to the relief to crude traders, the CME group suspends plans to launch a 24/7 crude oil futures contract. Industry resistance and "security" are the primary reasons. Going with industry pushback as the key reason here.
In an attempt to remedy the lack of reportable negotiated cash #cattle data USDA's Market News will add a price for CO, TX, KS, NM and OK on Monday 10/26. Not good enough. USDA calls it "transparency". Absent reliable data funds are not trading cattle
usda.gov/about-usda/news/pre…
US #wheat futures getting smoked this morning as the US and Putin begin talks in Russia. Low confidence in the output. Seasonally soft wheat futures can add another 10-20 thousand short positions into the end of the year and ahead of the Winter Wheat Seedings report.
Choice cutout for 10/20 is in good shape. The value is at parity with 2025 levels and is ridding the tailwinds of the record setting prices of the rib (11% of the cutout value) and the chuck (30% of the cutout) Cash #cattle values are rising but packer margins are positive.
Bloomberg's October #cattle on feed pre-report estimates. Placements are forecast to move LOWER as the average estimate is -8.3% from 2025, 1.853 mh vs 2.021 mh in 2025.
The October COF is this Friday, 10/23 at 2:00 CST. Good luck out there!!!
