26 | sports modeling | @AMPAnalytics_ | ⚾️: 26/30 | 🌲: 9/63
NY x NJ
Joined June 2019
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Updating pinned with more recent results for credibility in the sports betting space. Need the resume on hand when calling out some BS on here. These are just my P1 accs too 😉
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️ retweeted
Also added the 3PM projections to the website with a nifty feature, "who's playing"
Think a guy sits tonight before it’s announced? Set him to Out and his whole team reprices instantly... Get there before the books do
7-day free trial: ampanalyticsarena.com/signup
+19,700 banger last night, I never formally "introduced" my NBA model so here we go....One ticket doesn't prove anything, so here’s what does.
My NBA model has priced 92,324 alt 3PM lines across 3 full seasons it never trained on, plus every game this season so far.
When it says a play hits 10% of the time, it hits about 10%. When it says 20%, about 20%, and so on.
That’s the whole game with longshots. A +1900 isn’t a good bet because it might hit, but when the real chance is bigger than the price says, and you only know that if your percentages are honest...
Here’s how it works 🧵
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️ retweeted
+19,700 banger last night, I never formally "introduced" my NBA model so here we go....One ticket doesn't prove anything, so here’s what does.
My NBA model has priced 92,324 alt 3PM lines across 3 full seasons it never trained on, plus every game this season so far.
When it says a play hits 10% of the time, it hits about 10%. When it says 20%, about 20%, and so on.
That’s the whole game with longshots. A +1900 isn’t a good bet because it might hit, but when the real chance is bigger than the price says, and you only know that if your percentages are honest...
Here’s how it works 🧵
OH YA BABY CASH THAT SHIT
+19,700 ✅
+1900 ✅
Everything I play is derived from my model outputs, posted in VIP section of discord
discord.gg/7JgD56k6f
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️ retweeted
OH YA BABY CASH THAT SHIT
+19,700 ✅
+1900 ✅
Everything I play is derived from my model outputs, posted in VIP section of discord
discord.gg/7JgD56k6f
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️ retweeted
MLB Strikeout Wagers Final P/L
Overall: +$1,111 ✅
Straights: +$2,464✅
Parlays: -$1,353❌
Finished up 22.2u with a 2.03% ROI, disappointing but we’ll be back next season, whenever that is
Still going strong with now over 60 units of profit on NHL props over the last 4 weeks with a ROI comfortably in the double digits. Almost all of that volume and profit coming from SOG bets based on my projections.
Also want to shout out @KSplitAnalytics for helping my ideas come alive at AMPAnalyticsArena.com. I use many of the tools on the site daily to help me with my betting process and having all the tools and info I need in one place significantly increases my efficiency. Not only are my projections and probability distributions useful, but being able to reference team stats, expected line combos, and then having the various odds calculators (such as American -> % and expected ROI) plays a part in my decision making.
Up 44 units since October 2nd betting NHL props based on my projections at AMPAnalyticsArena.com.
One thing I want to point out however, is that I don’t blindly bet everything that my projections would suggest as good bets, or appear as the best bets on the website. I would never bet against my projections, but am selective in deciding what perceived edges to bet on. I just wanted to make that clear for anyone referencing the website, that I don’t use it as the only factor in deciding on bets, rather just the driving force.
Can’t control the outcomes but we can control getting good prices. All of these posted in @AMPAnalytics_ discord today
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️ retweeted
Me and @IIPatll put our brains together for this
.3u and .1u recs
All plays ➡️ discord.gg/SX7CV9tnM
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️ retweeted
I know nothing about betting on NHL and have tailed everything sent in the discord from @Dfsprodigy23 and @IIPatll
I trust my guys
+31.5u with a 23% ROI 🫡
Say the line @KSplitAnalytics
Surprised I haven’t seen this question yet but a good one to address. I have a few “checks” in my daily pipeline that would “throw players out”. The main idea behind it is to avoid having bad or erroneous projections displayed on the site and Garland fit into one of the criteria today.
Question: should I still include these players on the site and add another column that would indicate “low confidence” or something along those lines?
Up 44 units since October 2nd betting NHL props based on my projections at AMPAnalyticsArena.com.
One thing I want to point out however, is that I don’t blindly bet everything that my projections would suggest as good bets, or appear as the best bets on the website. I would never bet against my projections, but am selective in deciding what perceived edges to bet on. I just wanted to make that clear for anyone referencing the website, that I don’t use it as the only factor in deciding on bets, rather just the driving force.
Excited to partner with @KSplitAnalytics and @Dfsprodigy23 to develop @AMPAnalytics_ . We will be taking what previously was the KSplit Analytics website/discord and turning it into a product/service with projection models, bet calculators and other research tools across multiple sports, not just MLB.
Starting today, my NHL SOG and goal scorers projection models are available on the website, and the most +EV bets being shared in the discord. I have high ambitions and plans to create and add more content/value to the website. I am looking to contribute something for NBA in the coming months. For next MLB season, I am planning on building a fully comprehensive starting pitchers model, that will include projections for not just strikeouts, but home runs, hits, and walks allowed as well. I also have in mind other tools that can be used to evaluate hitter props based on my starting pitchers models.
Looking forward to working with @KSplitAnalytics and @Dfsprodigy23 for the indefinite future. Below are my betting results using my NHL models so far this season for reference:
Didn’t need a model to figure out that the guy with back to back hat tricks would shoot the puck, but happy my model backed this anyway. Surprised I didn’t see this more on the TL today, seemed obvious
Top 9 skaters by projected SOG today with probability distributions and fair values @ AMPAnalyticsArena.com.
Top 9 skaters by projected SOG today with probability distributions and fair values @ AMPAnalyticsArena.com.
Pat 🧘♂️⚾️ retweeted
Whole team cooked last night 🔥 🔥
+8888 ✅ from @Dfsprodigy23
+3320 ✅ from @IIPatll
+3100 ✅ from @KSplitAnalytics
+2240✅ from @KSplitAnalytics
AMPanalyticsarena.com
