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@I_keepchanging

...I delete my tweets. Message is my only goal. Master Corporate Finance. Technical analysis. Bitcoin OG. Independent offgrid farmer. Mensa Sverige. Wealth

 Mars
Joined August 2015
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116Media
$ASST heavy. Are we seeing ATM-ing or just anticipation thereof!? Or FOMC and Inflation data in coming week spooking? I can see Strive doing ATM just to add those last BTC for Big money to be able to enter. It would justify going hard on the ATM. Just thinking out loud.
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$Bitcoin price is testing down, not up. Every new test down adds probability of a break.
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Someone needs to explain the CEBE mnav logic to me. If company grows pref with 100k BTC. They now hold 100k more BTC in balance. But because size of those prefs are subtracted, the net value creation is zero. Company just added a cost. Dont you find the CEBE calculus weird!?
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more replies
$ASST $MSTR
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We can't calculate a company as being in default in real time. That what CEBE does. Not realistic because thats not what we are having Treasuries are like banks. Customers assets has value, they are assets. Not a liability. Just my thinking.
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I feel a little bit sad for $ASST. They are doing everything perfect. But $Bitcoin aint going up and that destroys the whole meticulous build. Amplified up means amplified down aswell. BTC hashrate growing & 17 mnths halving. The bottom is in. But we might need to test it. 68K
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$ASST always dumps on announced new purchases of Bitcoin 😄
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$ASST shouldn't do ATM at these low mNAVs. ~3.5 Bln in BTC and mcap valued at ~2.9 Bln. That is capital destruction no matter how you twist or turn your metrics. Dont sell your worth below what is worth. Ever.
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Lots of Neocloud debt FUD. Alot of $Bitcoin miners involved. They hold BTC as inventory. Could be selling of coins if they really need cash. Could put drag on Bitcoin. 70-80K probably be the range for a longer time. $ASST
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$Bitcoin is very likely revisiting 68k. All we need is S&P500 dropping 10% as it normaly and occasionally does from top. $ASST and $MSTR will likely finish the move down before BTC hits the new local low. I hope I am wrong. But I lean towards this a t m.
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Saylor bought ~1 million coins. IBIT bought ~ 1 million coins. Price hasn't moved. So why would Satoshis coins selling affect the market!? 😄
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It's pretty simple from my point of view. We can not have shitcoins rallying with $Bitcoin. We can not have Etherium and cRipple pushing up. It's not sustainable. They need to crash when BTC rally. But that aint gonna happen, and thats why BTC been stuck for 5yrs. $ASST
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Hash dumped Friday but now completely turned and put in a new high. That is actually bullish. Miners are likely starting to discount the halving and end of bear prices. So right now I'm very ambivalent. No idea about shorter term price up or down.
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$Bitcoin needs to start performing now or we are headed back to the lows of 60k. That would be extremely demoralizing. ...so....UP.... very soon, or else.
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~17 months until halving. Long, but coming from 48 mnths, makes it now visible. How many outside the BTC space are truly aware of this event!? Not alot. But I got a feeling the big money & majority of fin-retail are this time going to be the one who anticipate & cheers it on.
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$ASST general price action are likely going to be strong outburst when BTC move up & then fizzle down slowly because of yield cost. That is what to expect. And that price action is the hardest to hodl 4 sure. You should mentally prepare. Or have dry powder to DCA every fizzle
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...if you try to trade it, you are likely just going to miss the strong moves and hold the fizzle 😉😊
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The HUGE shorts in $ASST are still there and being passive. I can not wrap my head around these shorts. I'm starting to think it's retail who holds the majority. That would be very squeezeable 😅 All sitting on the margin. X-citing times
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