...I delete my tweets. Message is my only goal. Master Corporate Finance. Technical analysis. Bitcoin OG. Independent offgrid farmer. Mensa Sverige. Wealth

Mars
Joined August 2015
JUST IN: $3 BILLION STRIVE CEO JUST REVEALED THEY PLAN TO BUY 20,000 MORE #BITCOIN SOON "A 50% GROWTH IN THE BALANCE SHEET WOULD BE THE SWEET SPOT" "THE BIGGEST INSTITUTIONS ARE BEGGING US, CAN YOU GROW FASTER?" BTC DIGITAL CREDIT DEMAND IS EXPLODING THE SAYLOR EFFECT IS HERE 🚀 Source: @sovanahq
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I keep looking at $ASST's new $SATS IPO and one of the most interesting things that I haven't seen a lot of talk about is the liquidation preference. $SATS doesn't have a ceiling or a floor so technically $ASST can issue shares at whatever price they want, but there's some interesting balance sheet math depending on where they issue the shares compared to the liquidation preference. In short, the liquidation preference is the price the $SATS shareholder is owed in the event of a liquidation. The liquidation price can go above $100 in order to protect investors who buy higher, but it can never go below $100. Meaning if you buy it below the liquidation price, Strive owes you more than you paid for it in the event of a liquidation. I don't believe a liquidation event will ever happen, but that doesn't change how issuance is treated on the balance sheet. Going forward let's just assume a liquidation preference of $100 just to explain how it works. If Strive issues $SATS at $90 they are essentially taking out a $100 loan and getting paid $90 for it. The $10 gap is immediately spent from the residual book value of $ASST leaving them with the burden of paying 16.67% per year from a $90 $BTC investment. If Strive issues $SATS at $110 the reverse happens. They are taking out a $100 loan and getting paid $110 for it. The $10 gap is immediately added to the value of $ASST leaving them with the burden of paying 13.64% per year. So, what does this all mean? Strive can now choose its own terms that it wants to take when issuing equity to purchase $BTC. If bitcoin is trading at a deeply discounted price, they can actually spend book value and make a high conviction purchase. If $BTC is trading at an overvalued price, they can create book value while adding more $BTC to the balance sheet. The assumed CAGR of $BTC explodes the closer you get to the 200 WMA and shrinks the further you get away from it. $SATS is a tool that can be used to exploit both.
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At 1:20 mark the Bloomberg host thought he had a tough question and @saylor gave a master class response. Well done. @Strategy MSTR STRC Digital Credit.
JUST IN: Global index fund giant MSCI approves a new rule that could exclude Strategy $MSTR and Metaplanet $MPJPY from its indexes as non-operating companies. JP Morgan said this index exclusion could trigger outflows of about $2.8 billion from Strategy $MSTR. The new rule's changes take effect on December 1st. 👀
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Nobody has built a sufficiently robust analytics system for tracking Bitcoin risks and opportunities at the enterprise level. In tradfi, large companies pay $ 20M+ per year for these types of systems. Revenue-generating products like this could one day represent a significant source of fuel powering the underlying @Strive engine ($SATA and $ASST). We are so early. If you want a better glimpse of the future, get good at reading between the lines. When a CEO says something like this…pay attention. @ColeMacro $ASST $SATA
And you thought he was just hiring podcasters to make more content… @ColeMacro @Strive $ASST $SATA $BTC
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Let's talk about what a post warrant $ASST looks like. WARNING: This is weapons grade bull fuel, hang on tight. Historically accretive exercises and the aftermath: July 2024 $MSTR Convertible Notes: The notes were converted at ~$39.80 well above the Bitcoin per share value wiping out $650 million in debt and boosting $BTC per share. $MSTR was pinned around $130-$148 right up to the conversion cutoff. The aftermath? Up 25% within 10 days and 3x over the next 4 months. Fall 2024 Metaplanet 11th series warrants: Holders exercised warrants at ¥555 per share while the underlying $BTC NAV was a fraction of that, injecting ~$66M (¥10B) directly into spot Bitcoin and spiking $BTC Yield. 2-6 weeks prior to the exercise being finished the stock was pinned to ¥900–¥1,100 (starting to sound familiar?). It doubled in 2 weeks to ¥2,000 and doubled again in another 2 months to ¥4,000. Similar thing happened with DraftKings in 2020, up 110% in 10 weeks. Same thing with MP Materials in 2021: Pinned to $25-$27 then up 45% over 8 weeks and doubled over 5 months. There's a pin in the price because it's a FN hand grenade, buy accordingly. 4 more trading days left.
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Replying to @diglloyd @Strive
We cannot rule out private $ASST warrant sales WITH a deep pockets buyer or set of buyers, so that all warrants would be exercised by buyer(s) looking to establish a large position. Ignore the 9.99% blocker, even if it exists. Notice must be given to @Strive @AngryBuhda @ZynxBTC @AdamBLiv @ColeMacro
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⚡️You can absolutely fail while never giving up. You can spend ten years pushing on the wrong door. The deeper truth is: Persistence only becomes powerful when paired with adaptation. The people who eventually win are usually stubborn about the destination and ruthless about changing the route. They keep the mission. They kill bad methods. They absorb reality faster than everyone else. They come back with a better model. You can fail a thousand times and still win, as long as failure keeps changing you faster than it breaks you. That is the real version.
remember, it's impossible to fail if you never give up
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Gotta love Power Hour 📈💪⏱️ $SATA A beautiful recurring theme. Capitalists parking their fiat cars for the day 🚗 We’re gonna need a bigger parking lot! @ColeMacro @PunterJeff @AdamBLiv @Werkman
Wow, quite the fade on $BTC today 😯 *Checks $SATA… * $SATA pinned to $100 all day on higher than avg volume *Closes app and goes back to sleep
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Why? Because $MSTR will forever bleed reinvested funds into $SATA. We are never going to see the opposite happen as long as SATAs yield is higher. The two are communicating vessles and the drain will continue until one is completely emptied into the other. $ASST
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Unusual Big day for SATA. ~500+ BTC emitted. While STRC fades. So the result is in for me STRC payouts affect $SATA more than STRC. This tells med STRC dividends are being reinvested in SATA as I have thought. STRC will bleed into SATA until they are of equal weight. $ASST
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You carry the weight of the world on your shoulders. No wonder you are so tired. Let it go.
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STRC setup is worse. It will loose par every monday.
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DAILY DIVIDENDS: STRIVE VS STRATEGY Strategy's $STRC is moving toward “daily dividends,” but they are taking a different approach from @Strive. @Strive’s $SATA pays dividends only on Business Days. The monthly dividend is divided across the Business Days in that month, with Saturdays and Sundays having no record date, no payment and no separate dividend accrual. Jeff Walton @PunterJeff said today at the @BTCtreasuries Conference in New York City that this choice was deliberate. Strive specifically wanted to reduce the dividend-capture distortion that occurs when weekend dividends become concentrated into a single trading day. $SATA does not eliminate that mismatch completely. Because the monthly dividend is distributed across roughly 20 to 22 Business Days rather than 30 or 31 calendar days, each Business Day still pays more than a pure 1/365-day accrual. But the weekend value is spread across many payments rather than concentrated into one Friday. @Strategy’s proposed $STRC structure takes the opposite approach which Strive avoided on purpose. Every calendar day is a record date, including Saturdays, Sundays and holidays, with non-Business-Day dividends paid on the next Business Day. Under today’s market structure, that means Friday can effectively carry the entitlement for Friday + Saturday + Sunday. For example, someone could theoretically buy $STRC one minute before Thursday’s market close and sell one minute after Friday’s market open, while retaining roughly three calendar days of dividend entitlement. At a 12% annual dividend rate: 12% × 3 / 365 = 0.0986%. So that is roughly 0.10% of par, or around $0.10 per $100 share. This should also create more mechanical volatility between Thursday’s close and Friday’s ex-dividend trading, because $STRC should theoretically adjust downward by roughly those three days of dividend value. For most retail traders, however, trading fees and spreads can exceed the benefit of capturing roughly 0.1% in dividends, making the trade economically unattractive or simply not feasible. This is not necessarily free arbitrage. The market should theoretically price the dividend entitlement into the Thursday-to-Friday adjustment. So Strive and Strategy appear to be optimizing for different things: $SATA minimizes dividend-capture distortions, arbitrage and volatility in the market we have today. $STRC: build a true 365-day dividend architecture that makes more sense in a future of tokenized, 24/7 capital markets. Ben Werkman @Werkman made an important comment on the Bitcoin Treasuries conference today: If weekends eventually become normal trading and settlement days, Strive would also start paying dividends over the weekend. That future also fits the broader direction both $MSTR and $ASST are positioning around, with @Saylor particularly vocal about tokenized, always-on capital markets. $STRC’s architecture already fits that world naturally. Strive optimized for today’s market structure. Strategy is optimizing for the market it expects tomorrow.
🤖 Made with AI
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Strive $ASST on @CashApp, not sure when it became available:
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Replying to @BTC_broo
Different capital has access to different products. An etf is more digestible to pensions and other investors than a preferred security is. @ColeMacro knows this as his time at Calpers. Should bring more money looking at income into $SATA. Bullish!
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Pray that Strategy use its "anything goes" cash reserve to buy ALL of the outstanding warrant float of @Strive $ASST for a minority stake in its finest partner. @Strategy $MSTR and @Strive $ASST and @Metaplanet $MPJPY are fortresses on the mountain ridge, beating back the fiat barbarians. All part of a team to restored hope and decency to every hard-working person on the planet. @ColeMacro @JoeConsorti @PunterJeff @saylor @phongle @gerovich @DylanLeClair
$MSTR 5 trading days left until the end of Q3. I’m convinced Strategy will be buying Bitcoin between now and market close on Wednesday, September 30th. With net Bitcoin accumulation currently sitting at zero, I believe Strategy will want to finish the quarter with that number in positive territory. We’re currently sitting on ~$1.05B in USD Cash. At a Bitcoin price of $84K, that’s enough to purchase 12,500 BTC. Although I highly doubt Strategy will deploy the entire amount, even with the authorization to do so. We’ve been seeing aggressive $STRC buybacks, with weekly spending in the $100M–$170M range. If we leave $500M–$600M available to continue supporting $STRC, that would leave roughly $500M available for Bitcoin accumulation. At current prices, that $500M could buy roughly 5,950 BTC. That’s how much Bitcoin Strategy could accumulate using only its USD Cash to end the quarter. All of this assumes $MSTR remains untapped, which is what we’ve seen for the past two weeks. It’ll be interesting to see how management chooses to allocate the cash over the next five days. Mission: Strategy. $BTC $MSTR $STRC
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I thought this was interesting..
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Bitcoin was up over 6% Yesterday. The common equity was up 1%. It won't track like a 2x levered ETF: too many different capital flows in the stock, and a lot of short term trading in it right now. Behind the warrant expiry, is heavy hedging already done or a large naked short. That position gets closed over time either way. $ASST $BTC @ColeMacro
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Replying to @Starskov
Warrant holders exercising Basic $27 $ASST shares selling $29.70s That’s 10% return ✅💯 In addition Massive volume 8million + in first trading hour Record short interest Solid flywheel $SATA working Underlying asset $BTC breaking into bull market @ColeMacro has publicly stated they would love the warrants to get exercised, receive $700+million capital which acquires more bitcoin and with lower amplification allows for PLENTY more $SATA issuance again Expecting couple days of big volume churn for $ASST Great team & excellent execution of long term strategy
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