Starskov retweeted
Today was the most difficult day in the history of Digital Credit.
$STRC traded as low as $82.50 before recovering sharply. $SATA traded from par down to the low 90s before also rebounding. It was a difficult day for many investors.
What happened today was a leverage liquidation event, not a deterioration in underlying credit quality.
There is an old saying in income markets that the road to hell is paved with carry.
When investors discover an asset that offers attractive yields, relatively low volatility, and strong underlying credit characteristics, many eventually decide that owning it is not enough. They borrow against it. They lever it. They attempt to enhance the carry.
That works until it doesn't.
When markets move against leveraged holders, forced selling can create a cascade. Prices fall, margin calls increase, more selling occurs, and the cycle feeds on itself. The selling becomes disconnected from fundamentals and becomes driven by balance sheet constraints.
We have seen this many times before in traditional finance. Some of the largest hedge fund failures in history involved highly leveraged positions in U.S. Treasuries. Not because Treasuries suddenly became poor credits, but because investors became overextended while trying to earn additional yield on assets that appeared safe and stable.
That is the dynamic that played out today in Digital Credit.
Importantly, the creditworthiness of the issuers remains strong.
At @Strive, our dividend reserves remain intact. Our company is not under stress. We remain well positioned to meet our obligations and continue executing our strategy. The underlying credit profile remains substantially unchanged from where it was before today's volatility.
One of the lessons markets teach repeatedly is that leverage flushes are not necessarily evidence of weak collateral. In many cases, they occur precisely because the underlying collateral is viewed as stable enough to encourage excessive leverage in the first place.
In that sense, today's events were difficult for some investors, but they were also instructive.
Digital Credit is still in its infancy. It is better for the market to experience and learn from these dynamics now, while the market remains relatively small, than years from now when the market is many times larger. Investors, issuers, and market participants all benefit from understanding the risks associated with leverage and liquidity before the asset class reaches full scale.
No one knows with certainty whether today's lows will ultimately prove to be the bottom.
What is clear is that there was substantial demand at those prices. Both $STRC and $SATA experienced significant buying interest off their intraday lows, resulting in sharp recoveries. That price action reflects meaningful demand entering the market at lower levels and is an encouraging sign for the health of the asset class.
A liquidation event and a credit event are not the same thing.
The price action today did not change my conviction in the long-term opportunity for Digital Credit. If anything, it reinforced my belief that we are building an entirely new category of financial instrument that will experience many of the same growing pains that other large fixed income markets experienced before reaching maturity.
The volatility was uncomfortable for many participants.
The lesson will prove valuable.
Stay calm. Focus on fundamentals. Markets have a way of working through excesses, and when they do, stronger foundations are often left behind.
Starskov retweeted
Air passengers are bracing for travel disruptions to worsen in the coming days, as thousands of flights were delayed and canceled over the weekend and the longest government shutdown in U.S. history reached its 41st day. wapo.st/3Xr4VNr
Will Strategy ($MSTR) finally join the S&P 500 in September?
Will Strategy ($MSTR) finally join the S&P 500 in September?
Letâs break it downâthis time, with all the receipts. đ§ľ
In June, $APP and $HOOD were left at the altar. Both had the market cap, liquidity, and GAAP profit. But the S&P Committee passedâsignaling itâs not just about checking boxes.
Now Strategy steps up. Entirely different scale.
The numbers donât lie:
Start of Q2: 528,185 BTC
End of Q2: 582,000 BTC
Total Q2 buys: 53,815 BTC
All publicly filed. All verified.
Cost basis: ~$40.8B
BTC fair value @ $110K: ~$64.0B
Unrealized gain: ~$23.2B
Under the new FASB fair-value rules, thatâs GAAP income.
GAAP TTM income calculation (fully reconciled):
Q3 2024: â$340M
Q4 2024: â$671M
Q1 2025: â$4.2B
Q2 2025: +~$15.3B â driven by BTC at $110K
â
Total: ~+10.1B in TTM GAAP profit.
Yes, positive. Yes, real. Yes, reported.
Now letâs check the S&P 500 criteria:
â
U.S.-listed
â
Public float & liquidity (top 1%)
â
Market cap: $100â110B
â
TTM GAAP profit: Confirmed
Formally eligible for the first time ever.
But⌠formal eligibility didnât save $APP or $HOOD.
So will Strategy be treated the same?
Hereâs why this case is different:
Itâs massive - much bigger than $APP and $HOOD.
Itâs earned ~$10B profit on the books.
It doesnât just clear the barâit pole-vaults over it.
Itâs the most direct BTC proxy in U.S. markets.
Passive S&P funds would instantly gain Bitcoin beta.
The risk? Thatâs exactly why the committee hesitates.
The committee must now choose:
Include Strategy and accept a BTC-driven mega cap
or
Skip again and risk looking out of touch while Bitcoin reshapes capital markets
Thereâs no structural excuse left. If BTC closes Q2 at $110K, Strategy has earned its seat.
Odds?
BTC ⼠$110K â â
Earnings eligibility â â
Slot opens â ~80%
Committee greenlight â ~70% if âĽ2 slots, ~40% if 1
Blended probability: ~60%
This is a coin flip - with a heavy Satoshi bias.
Key dates to watch:
⢠June 28 â Rank Day
⢠July 29 â Q2 earnings release (estimated)
⢠August 30 â Inclusion announcement (Friday)
⢠September 20 â Rebalance effective (Friday close)
If not now, when?
If not Strategy, who?
All BTC buys confirmed in SEC filings. GAAP profit model reconciled to public numbers.
This isnât speculative. Itâs math. And itâs time.
#Bitcoin #MSTR #Strategy #SP500 #BTC #MicroStrategy @PunterJeff @werkman @btc_overflow @JoshMandell6
Will Strategy ($MSTR) finally join the S&P 500 in September?
Letâs break it downâthis time, with all the receipts. đ§ľ
In June, $APP and $HOOD were left at the altar. Both had the market cap, liquidity, and GAAP profit. But the S&P Committee passedâsignaling itâs not just about checking boxes.
Now Strategy steps up. Entirely different scale.
The numbers donât lie:
Start of Q2: 528,185 BTC
End of Q2: 582,000 BTC
Total Q2 buys: 53,815 BTC
All publicly filed. All verified.
Cost basis: ~$40.8B
BTC fair value @ $110K: ~$64.0B
Unrealized gain: ~$23.2B
Under the new FASB fair-value rules, thatâs GAAP income.
GAAP TTM income calculation (fully reconciled):
Q3 2024: â$340M
Q4 2024: â$671M
Q1 2025: â$4.2B
Q2 2025: +~$15.3B â driven by BTC at $110K
â
Total: ~+10.1B in TTM GAAP profit.
Yes, positive. Yes, real. Yes, reported.
Now letâs check the S&P 500 criteria:
â
U.S.-listed
â
Public float & liquidity (top 1%)
â
Market cap: $100â110B
â
TTM GAAP profit: Confirmed
Formally eligible for the first time ever.
But⌠formal eligibility didnât save $APP or $HOOD.
So will Strategy be treated the same?
Hereâs why this case is different:
Itâs massive - much bigger than $APP and $HOOD.
Itâs earned ~$10B profit on the books.
It doesnât just clear the barâit pole-vaults over it.
Itâs the most direct BTC proxy in U.S. markets.
Passive S&P funds would instantly gain Bitcoin beta.
The risk? Thatâs exactly why the committee hesitates.
The committee must now choose:
Include Strategy and accept a BTC-driven mega cap
or
Skip again and risk looking out of touch while Bitcoin reshapes capital markets
Thereâs no structural excuse left. If BTC closes Q2 at $110K, Strategy has earned its seat.
Odds?
BTC ⼠$110K â â
Earnings eligibility â â
Slot opens â ~80%
Committee greenlight â ~70% if âĽ2 slots, ~40% if 1
Blended probability: ~60%
This is a coin flip - with a heavy Satoshi bias.
Key dates to watch:
⢠June 28 â Rank Day
⢠July 29 â Q2 earnings release (estimated)
⢠August 30 â Inclusion announcement (Friday)
⢠September 20 â Rebalance effective (Friday close)
If not now, when?
If not Strategy, who?
All BTC buys confirmed in SEC filings. GAAP profit model reconciled to public numbers.
This isnât speculative. Itâs math. And itâs time.
#Bitcoin #MSTR #Strategy #SP500 #BTC #MicroStrategy @PunterJeff @werkman @btc_overflow @JoshMandell6
đŤ Why werenât $APP (AppLovin) and $HOOD (Robinhood) added to the S&P 500 â even though they qualified?
Letâs break down what really happened in the latest S&P rebalance â and why the Index Committee said no despite the hype đ§ľ
In the lead-up to the June 2025 S&P 500 rebalance, both Robinhood and AppLovin checked the technical boxes:
â
Market cap well above $20.5B
â
4 consecutive quarters of GAAP profits
â
U.S.-based public companies with adequate liquidity
In fact, both rallied HARD in May on S&P inclusion speculation:
â $HOOD surged to $66B market cap
â $APP was one of the largest non-members by cap
â Analysts at BofA and Barclays named them top candidates
â Even options markets priced in inclusion
But when the S&P Dow Jones Indices committee released its quarterly update?
đ§ Crickets. No changes at all.
No $APP. No $HOOD. No anyone.
So what happened?
First, remember: S&P 500 inclusion isnât automatic. Itâs discretionary.
Meeting the criteria = eligibility.
Getting in = committee decision.
And if thereâs no natural vacancy (like a merger, delisting, or boot), the committee can simply⌠do nothing.
Which is what they did.
But thatâs not all.
Two key under-the-radar factors likely played a role:
1ď¸âŁ $APP faced a major short-seller campaign (March 2025).
Fuzzy Panda Research lobbied the S&P Committee directly, accusing AppLovin of misleading business practices and violating Apple/Google policies.
The stock tanked ~20%, then rebounded â but the stain lingered.
The S&P Committee is extremely cautious with controversial names. They may wait for clouds to clear before adding exposure to the flagship index.
2ď¸âŁ $HOOD = volatility risk.
Yes, Robinhood flipped to profitability. But itâs still highly exposed to retail trading sentiment, crypto swings, and regulatory scrutiny.
The Committee tends to prefer âsteady compounders,â not stocks with meme-era baggage and wild beta.
Also worth noting: $COIN met criteria well before it was added in May 2025 â but wasnât added until Discover ($DFS) created a spot.
Same for Tesla in 2020. Qualifying â entry.
So when will $HOOD or $APP get their chance?
đ
Possibly when U.S. Steel ($X) is removed post-acquisition.
Until then, no vacancy = no inclusion.
And the Committee has no obligation to rotate in new blood if they think the current list holds up.
Bottom line:
Robinhood and AppLovin were passed over not because they were unqualified â but because the S&P 500 is a curated list.
The bar is more than financials. Itâs also judgment, governance, and stability.
Thatâs the S&Pâs discretion â and their brand.
Will they get in eventually? Probably.
But for now, itâs wait and see.
đ Both stocks dropped ~6â7% post-snub.
đ§ Lesson: Never trade solely on inclusion hype. The Committee plays the long game.
â
If youâre tracking index plays or speculating on S&P additions, watch these variables closely:
1.Financial viability
2.Volatility profile
3.Controversy risk
4.Vacancies (M&A, exits)
5.Committee behavior patterns
$APP and $HOOD â still on deck. Just not in the game yet.
#SP500 #Robinhood #AppLovin #IndexFunds #Investing #Markets
No Second Best: The AâZ of Bitcoin-Backed $STRX Tickers - plenty to build out the yield curve products.
When @Strategy rolled out Bitcoin-backed products such as $STRK (Strike), $STRF (Strife), and $STRD (Stride), it showed the world itâs doubling-down on BTC in every strand of its business. As Michael Saylor likes to remind us, âThere is no second best,â and because #Bitcoin is hope for all things - yes, even alphabet soup - hereâs a AâZ lexicon of potential $STRX tickers. Each riffs on mostly real English word that begins with âStr.â Think of it as Strategyâs way of saying âYou donât sell your Bitcoinâ - you alphabetize it. đ
$STRA â Strata: Layers of strategy built on solid bedrock (of BTC, naturally).
$STRB â Strobe: Flashy moves in the market, signaling Bitcoinâs bright future.
$STRC â Struck: Lightning has struckâBitcoin inspiration hitting like a bolt from the blue.
$STRD â Stride: One stride at a time, marching forward with a Bitcoin-standard game plan.
$STRE â Street: A nod to Wall Street finally catching on to digital-gold dynamics.
$STRF â Strife: Volatility and strifeâit builds character (and HODL conviction).
$STRG â Strong: Built strong with Bitcoinâleveraged optimism needs iron hands.
$STRH â Strath: A wide valley (strath) of opportunity, mined with BTC-backed debt and equity.
$STRI â Strict: Strict disciplineâno selling, just leveraging BTC. Compliance teams, rejoice.
$STRJ â Strajk: Going on strajk (strike) against fiat conventions - another whisper of âno second best.â
$STRK â Strike: Hitting targets with precisionâpreferred equity thatâs anything but striking out.
$STRL â Stroll: A stroll through the Bitcoin park - slow, steady accumulation.
$STRM â Stream: Income stream backed by BTC flowsâWall Streetâs new cash flow meets crypto.
$STRN â Strain: Financial engineering can be a strain, but BTC-backed resilience makes it easy.
$STRO â Strop: Sharpening strategy on a stropâhoning that Bitcoin edge to a razorâs finish.
$STRP â Stripe: Earning your stripes by innovating with Bitcoin collateral.
$STRQ â Strand: Spinning a strand of Bitcoin DNA into every corporate action (Q was a struggle, but worth it).
$STRR â Strap: Strap in for the rideâno loose ends when youâre secured by BTCâs power.
$STRS â Stress: Testing every stress scenarioâBitcoin still comes out on top.
$STRT â Strut: Walking with confident strut thanks to a BTC-fortified balance sheet.
$STRU â Strum: Play the market like a guitarâjust strum those BTC notes and enjoy the gains.
$STRV â Strive: Always strive for moreâmore Bitcoin, more innovation. (Looking at you, @ColeMacro)
$STRW â Straw: The last straw for fiat? Bitcoinâs the real drink-stirrer here.
$STRX â Strix: As wise as an owl (Strix) - nocturnal and laser-eyed on the Bitcoin prize.
$STRY â Stray: Not one stray satoshi left behind - every unit of value accounted for.
$STRZ â Straza: Going the full distance to Straza and beyondâbecause in BTC-backed creativity, you donât sell, you scale.
Each ticker is its own Easter egg - a tongue-in-cheek nod to Strategyâs Bitcoin zeal and a dry, alphabetical homage to the idea that Bitcoin fixes (almost) everything, even the alphabet soup of finance. Strategy isnât just playing with BTC-backed ideas; itâs indexing them A-to-Z, with hope, humor, and a firm ânever sellâ mindset.
CC: @Saylor @PunterJeff @ryquant @ColeMacro @werkman @TimKotzman â enjoy the ride and keep stacking tickers the way we all. stack sats. âĄđ
More $STRX productsâŚ.?
No Second Best: The AâZ of Bitcoin-Backed $STRX Tickers - plenty to build out the yield curve products.
When Strategy rolled out Bitcoin-backed products such as $STRK (Strike), $STRF (Strife), and $STRD (Stride), it showed the world itâs doubling-down on BTC in every strand of its business. As Michael Saylor likes to remind us, âThere is no second best,â and because #Bitcoin is hope for all things - yes, even alphabet soup - hereâs a AâZ lexicon of potential $STRX tickers. Each riffs on mostly real English word that begins with âStr.â Think of it as Strategyâs way of saying âYou donât sell your Bitcoinâ - you alphabetize it. đ
$STRA â Strata: Layers of strategy built on solid bedrock (of BTC, naturally).
$STRB â Strobe: Flashy moves in the market, signaling Bitcoinâs bright future.
$STRC â Struck: Lightning has struckâBitcoin inspiration hitting like a bolt from the blue.
$STRD â Stride: One stride at a time, marching forward with a Bitcoin-standard game plan.
$STRE â Street: A nod to Wall Street finally catching on to digital-gold dynamics.
$STRF â Strife: Volatility and strifeâit builds character (and HODL conviction).
$STRG â Strong: Built strong with Bitcoinâleveraged optimism needs iron hands.
$STRH â Strath: A wide valley (strath) of opportunity, mined with BTC-backed debt and equity.
$STRI â Strict: Strict disciplineâno selling, just leveraging BTC. Compliance teams, rejoice.
$STRJ â Strajk: Going on strajk (strike) against fiat conventions - another whisper of âno second best.â
$STRK â Strike: Hitting targets with precisionâpreferred equity thatâs anything but striking out.
$STRL â Stroll: A stroll through the Bitcoin park - slow, steady accumulation.
$STRM â Stream: Income stream backed by BTC flowsâWall Streetâs new cash flow meets crypto.
$STRN â Strain: Financial engineering can be a strain, but BTC-backed resilience makes it easy.
$STRO â Strop: Sharpening strategy on a stropâhoning that Bitcoin edge to a razorâs finish.
$STRP â Stripe: Earning your stripes by innovating with Bitcoin collateral.
$STRQ â Strand: Spinning a strand of Bitcoin DNA into every corporate action (Q was a struggle, but worth it).
$STRR â Strap: Strap in for the rideâno loose ends when youâre secured by BTCâs power.
$STRS â Stress: Testing every stress scenarioâBitcoin still comes out on top.
$STRT â Strut: Walking with confident strut thanks to a BTC-fortified balance sheet.
$STRU â Strum: Play the market like a guitarâjust strum those BTC notes and enjoy the gains.
$STRV â Strive: Always strive for moreâmore Bitcoin, more innovation. (Looking at you, @ColeMacro)
$STRW â Straw: The last straw for fiat? Bitcoinâs the real drink-stirrer here.
$STRX â Strix: As wise as an owl (Strix) - nocturnal and laser-eyed on the Bitcoin prize.
$STRY â Stray: Not one stray satoshi left behind - every unit of value accounted for.
$STRZ â Straza: Going the full distance to Straza and beyondâbecause in BTC-backed creativity, you donât sell, you scale.
Each ticker is its own Easter egg - a tongue-in-cheek nod to Strategyâs Bitcoin zeal and a dry, alphabetical homage to the idea that Bitcoin fixes (almost) everything, even the alphabet soup of finance. MicroStrategy isnât just playing with BTC-backed ideas; itâs indexing them A-to-Z, with hope, humor, and a firm ânever sellâ mindset.
CC: @Saylor @PunterJeff @ryquant @ColeMacro @werkman @TimKotzman â enjoy the ride and keep stacking tickers the way we all. stack sats. âĄđ
There's a new version of this post
Letâs see how this one ageâŚ
Bitcoin Price Falls. Key Crypto Conference Fails to Lift Digital Coins. trib.al/HGfmdKn












