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1/ How a Tiny Ancient Group Bounced Back from Near-Extinction
Samaritans once numbered in the hundreds of thousands. Persecution dropped them to 146 by 1918. Today they number 900. Resilience through high fertility, endogamy, and adaptation as the following will show.
James 🇦🇺 retweeted
Was Nebuchadnezzar right to establish blasphemy laws against the Lord in Babylon (Daniel 3) or was that too much Christian Nationalism type stuff?
Fertility in Kenya is declining at a steady pace and has actually accelerated in the most recent data.
3.9 to 3.4 in 8 years represents a ~1.6% decline per year from 2014 to 2022.
3.4 to 3.1 in the next 4 years represents a ~2.2% per year from 2022 to 2026.
James 🇦🇺 retweeted
Goondiwindi Regional Council:
Population: 10,495 (87-90% White)
TFR: 2.51
Notes: Essentially no one moves in from overseas, interstate or even from other parts of QLD, but a small number of people leave annually, the population remains rather stable anyway due to above replacement TFR, the surplus created ends up mostly in metropolitan southeast Queensland.
About ~7% of the population is Aboriginal, they skew the TFR higher, but not by enough to suggest the White population isn’t also decently above replacement, I’d still place the White TFR at ~2.4 based on weighting and Aboriginal TFR elsewhere.
Great work from @0bservationism
Definitely worth a follow.
My new Queensland TFR by LGA map.
Please note, this is based on 2024 data, the 2025 data actually comes out tomorrow (November 4th 2026), so I’ll begin to post more up to data fertility data, as well as comparisons between the 2024 and 2025 maps, noting which LGAs are most or least resilient.
These maps take me an hour or more to make and present, so if you’re interested in more, please repost and maybe follow, i’ll keep doing it for as long as people are actually keen on seeing this information. 👍🏻
I’ll be covering some individual LGAs in QLD that I think are interesting next, before moving to Victoria, the plan is to do all the states, then deep dives into LGAs and I’ll also make a map for the entire country broken down by LGA (those that are incorporated and have data).
#Demographics #Auspol
🇬🇧🇦🇺This is absolutely true. Until the start of 1949 there wasn't even an Australian citizenship and folks born in Australia were simply British subjects only and travelled on British passports.
Brits (and Irish) and Aussies are essentially One Nation.
It is, Australians and Brits are the same people, Australian, in the most true and original form of the word just means ‘to be a Brit in the southern continent’.
It was only later when other people co-opted this identity that it lost its meaning and became a universal identity that anyone can attain with the right documents.
James 🇦🇺 retweeted
🇺🇸 Demographic change under Trump II is looking different.
📈 The share of births to White mothers is growing and - if trends hold - may increase +2.9% across Trump II. Policy matters.
Factors at play:
1. Higher deportations
2. Lower inward migration
3. Pro-natal culture shift
James 🇦🇺 retweeted
The same data with population weighted cartography (all incorporated LGAs) for those interested.
Kempsey and Nambucca heads are quite the coastal outliers.
Kempsey is 80-85% White with a TFR of 2.46 (pop: 32k).
Nambucca Valley is 82-84% White with a TFR of 2.5 (pop: 21k).
James 🇦🇺 retweeted
I always bang on about the regional TFR divide, but fr, very rural Aussie populations have quite a high TFR, and most of these regions are supermajority White.
James 🇦🇺 retweeted
Wollondilly Shire, New South Wales:
TFR: 2.25
Population: 62k (88%+ White)
Internal migration gain: +1,251 annually (mostly White people fleeing Sydney).
Births minus deaths: +350 a year
Overseas migration: +70 a year
(Mostly from the UK, NZ, Malta, Italy and Germany).
Annual population gain: ~1,671
James 🇦🇺 retweeted
Precedent: A stable, above replacement TFR, white majority town in Australia.
Narrabri, NSW:
Shire population: 12,797
Town (urban) population: 6,953
Total fertility rate: 2.56
White population: 88%+
Regional migration: -50 people annually.
Births minus deaths: +~35 people annually
Net overseas migration: +~15 in a given year (Some Filipinos and English people, mostly).
The town is effectively demographically stable, within a margin of error.
The small Filipino and Nepalese population are somewhat transient and make up a disproportionate share of people leaving the town after they satisfy their visa requirements (to stay regional for 2-3 years), this means their share of the population barely changes even as more move in.
Replying to @Sneedysneed
Yes, but per the regional movers index (RMI), this trend has reduced in recent years, and now the cities send 30% more people to the regions than they receive, the issue is, most of the city to regions surplus goes to satellite regions of Sydney and not back to their original home town.
There is one exception, Narrabri, I’ll write more about it later.
James 🇦🇺 retweeted
Trick or treating in Alaska.
Maybe the hardest Halloween fits seen so far ✝️
God wills it!
🇮🇹 The Neocatechumenal Way in the Eternal City:
(TFR: 3.5-4.2 / Population: Approx 20k)
@luxembourgdusud inspired me to take a look at NCW numbers in the city of Rome
• The way arrived in Rome in 1968
• The city now has one of the largest concentration of NCW families and missionaries in the World
• In 2009 the then Pope Benedict XVI spoke of 500 communities in about 103 parishes.
• Contemporary reporting put membership at roughly 20k in the city (Vatican/ RomaSette).
• 2018: 477 communities cited across over 100 parishes (FarodiRoma).
• Typical community size is 20-50 people each according to Cammino Neocatecumenale
- Their presence in the Eternal City has been large and is rivalled possibly only by Madrid, where the organization was founded.
- Available data from the movement's parish reports and missionary family figures give an average family size of approximately 3.5–4.2 children, citing various reports.
- This in turn is substantially above Italy’s current TFR of of 1.14 births per woman.
- "The Ways" total pop (20k) in the City is therefore about 0.7%. Their much higher fertility implies these communities could account for a percentage well in excess of this of Total births in Rome. Perhaps something on the order of 2–3% of annual births in the city, as a very rough estimate.
- This, of course is speculative, but an educated speculation non the less, and is based on the fertility differential and available membership numbers.
- The Way remains active in parish life in the city, and may be having an outsized impact on its percentage of Total births, even given its small base.
(Sources used: Vatican- RomaSette, FarodiRoma, Cammino Neocatecumenale, Istat)
🇻🇦 The Neocatechumenal Way:
(TFR approx 3.5)
I decided to see what demographic material is available for the Neocatechumenal Way.
- Many have heard of Traditional Latin Mass Catholics and their fertility. Fewer have heard of the Neocatechumenal Way, a Catholic formation movement that operates within ordinary Novus Ordo parishes.
It was founded in Spain in the 60s. The general premise is to form people into small communities focused on various aspects of Catholic life like Scripture and liturgy.
- The movement places a strong emphasis on welcoming children and large families are a documented trend within the movement, although specific numbers and data are hard to parse.
- The Way is currently present in 139 countries, with more than 20k communities worldwide. The vast majority approx 16-17k are in Italy and Spain. In those countries it maintains its largest network of parishes and communities.
• Family size: What we can decipher....
• 📊 Barcelona, Spain: A 2012 parish report from Santa Joaquina de Vedruna recorded an average of 4.2 children per married couple across its Neocatechumenal communities. It reported over 700 adults and 400 children under 14.
- Approx 70% of the children had been born after their parents joined the Way,
- Additionally and quite interestingly the report also stated that almost 80% of children over 14 continued in the movement.
• 📊 1986: At an audience with Pope John Paul II, the Way reported 48 families with 203 children an average of over 4.2 children per family.
• 📊 1994: Another papal audience this time involved 120 missionary families with 441 children. So an average of about 3.7 children per family.
• 📊 2018: The movement reported 1,668 families serving in missions worldwide, with approximately 6k children.
• 📊 2022: The Ways own figures reported more than 2k missionary families with around 6,5k children and thus approximately 3.25 children per family.
- Additionally there is a large body of stories of individual families, some with enormous families that has been reported in local news in various countries. Particularly again in Italy and Spain
- Taken together, the reported missionary family figures suggest an average in the region of 3.5 children per family, although as a caveat this is a very rough estimate from the information available. This also does not allow for completed family size which may push the average slightly higher.
(Sources Below)
James 🇦🇺 retweeted
Projected fertility rate by race
2025 2026(Jan-Sep)
White 1.582->1.598
Hispanic 1.784 ->1.725
Black 1.503 ->1.423
Asian 1.189 ->1.180
Total 1.576 ->1.558
James 🇦🇺 retweeted
The CDC has issued its US birth update for September. Year over year for Sept. (bearing in mind this overstates the declines, since numbers are preliminary), births to NH White mothers are -2.3%, Hispanic are -3.9%, NH Black are -6.9%, Asian are -1.9%, and Other are -3.3%.
James 🇦🇺 retweeted
There were 138,989 births in England in Q2 2026 (April to June)
Here is the ethnic breakdown in numbers and percentage
Bangladeshi: 3,177 (2.3%)
Indian: 8,229 (5.9%)
Pakistani: 8,101 (5.8%)
Any other Asian background: 6,003 (4.3%)
Black African: 8,580 (6.2%)
Black Caribbean: 1,045 (0.8%)
Any other Black background: 1,153 (0.8%)
Mixed/multiple ethnic groups: 10,470 (7.5%)
Any other ethnic group: 3,727 (2.7%)
White British: 73,139 (52.6%)
Any other White background: 13,548 (9.7%)
Not stated: 1,817 (1.3%)
Source: Quarterly births in England and Wales, provisional: January to June 2026































