CCM, Master Instructor: NWS Warning Decision Training Division, past Acting Director: NIST NWIRP, Chair: ASCE WindstormEstimation Standards Committee
Oklahoma
Joined December 2008
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James G. LaDue, CCM retweeted
I don’t think Europeans fully appreciate what is happening to the European Union right now.
The EU is under an extraordinary, multi-front assault, both from outside and from within. And I struggle to think of another period in its history when so many powerful actors had an interest in weakening it simultaneously.
Russia has spent years waging hybrid warfare against Europe. Weaponised migration, sabotage, cyberattacks, coordinated disinformation campaigns, bot networks and political interference. The objective is clear: undermine trust in democratic institutions, deepen social divisions and weaken European unity.
China has different motivations, primarily economic and geopolitical. A fragmented Europe is easier to pressure, easier to negotiate with individually and less capable of defending its economic interests.
And then there is the United States. Perhaps the most disturbing development of all.
Under Trump and MAGA, a country that helped rebuild the old continent and then spent decades supporting European integration now has an administration openly hostile to much of what the EU represents. Its own National Security Strategy even calls for cultivating resistance to Europe’s current political direction.
Think about that for a moment.
Meanwhile, within Europe, parts of the far right and far left amplify these divisions, whether through ideological alignment, political opportunism or outright sympathy for authoritarian regimes.
This doesn’t mean Russia, China and MAGA are all following some jointly coordinated master plan. They don’t have to. Their interests increasingly overlap, and Europe’s internal divisions make their work considerably easier.
What makes this particularly alarming is what is actually at stake.
For all its flaws, the EU remains one of the world’s most consequential projects built around liberal democracy, the rule of law, individual freedoms and cooperation between nations.
At a time when authoritarianism is gaining ground and even longstanding democracies are showing disturbing tendencies, that matters enormously.
Europe is far from perfect. Its bureaucracy, indecision and inability to act decisively are real problems. But the answer cannot be to retreat into 27 competing nation-states, each too small to meaningfully influence a world increasingly dominated by continental powers.
Quite the opposite.
Europe needs deeper integration, stronger common institutions, genuine strategic autonomy and the political courage to defend its interests and values.
Because fragmentation is precisely what so many external actors want.
And perhaps that’s the central irony of our time: people are being deliberately manipulated into believing that the reverse is true — that national identity and sovereignty can only be protected by weakening European cooperation. In reality, a divided Europe is less sovereign, less secure and far easier for outside powers to pressure. Therefore the very thing that will make Europe stronger is the thing its adversaries are working hardest to prevent.
A united Europe is a geopolitical power. A divided Europe is a collection of countries waiting to be played against one another.
James G. LaDue, CCM retweeted
It is a basic principle of American democracy that the government can’t selectively target individuals simply because of their political beliefs or what they say. But that’s exactly what the Trump Administration is doing to Congresswoman Ilhan Omar of Minnesota.
To understand why this is so appalling, it’s important to know the facts. Congresswoman Omar came to this country with her father when she was 12 years old. Five years later, her father became a naturalized citizen. If Ilhan had been 18 at the time, she would have had to apply for citizenship separately. But because she was 17, she became a naturalized citizen automatically.
Congresswoman Omar went on to graduate from college, work as a community organizer, become the first Somali-American legislator elected to public office in the U.S., and win a seat in Congress. There, she has been one of the Trump Administration’s fiercest critics, which has led the president to repeatedly single her out as someone who he believes does not belong in this country.
Now the Administration is actively trying to deport Congresswoman Omar, seemingly based solely on the unsubstantiated theory that she was actually 18 when her father was naturalized, and therefore is not a citizen. Federal agents have raided her home, confiscated personal records, and seized her phone — all to try and uncover a nonexistent smoking gun from 20 years ago that will somehow make their case.
Think about that. The full weight of the federal government is being brought down on a law-abiding elected official because she has dared to criticize the president. And it’s not the first time this has happened. Under President Trump, the Justice Department has repeatedly gone after those he considers his political enemies — from the Attorney General of New York, to the former head of the FBI, to members of the Federal Reserve.
In those cases, the prosecutions either stalled or were dismissed for having no basis in law, and the same is likely to happen in this case. But not before Congresswoman Omar’s life has been turned upside down, her legal bills have piled up, and she’s been forced to spend time fighting unsubstantiated charges instead of serving the people of Minnesota.
The fact that any president, or any administration, is willing to engage in such transparent efforts to intimidate someone should outrage all Americans, regardless of how they feel about Congresswoman Omar’s political views. Because if this becomes the new normal, there’s no reason to believe it will stop with her — or that future presidents, in either party, won’t do the same.
But I thought Trump knows best and doesn’t need expert advice.
Donald Trump admitió hoy que haber asesinado a Ali Jamenei y a los demás líderes de Irán fue un error. Dijo que Estados Unidos fue demasiado lejos con esa decisión. Está claro que hoy está empezando a ver todas las consecuencias de la irresponsabilidad de haberse metido con ellos. Los iraníes les destruyeron todas las bases de Medio Oriente, les destrozaron aviones, vehículos, drones, interceptores, les hicieron perder decenas de hombres y millones de dólares. Los estadounidenses encima no lograron ningún objetivo, cambiaron un régimen con el que tenían mejor diálogo por uno mucho mas radicalizado y consolidaron a Teherán como la principal potencia de la región. Terminaron humillados y con mucha menos influencia en la región. Esta guerra fue un absoluto error histórico.
James G. LaDue, CCM retweeted
I spent 15+ years investigating Russian secret services and organized crime. I know people who served with Putin in the KGB and sat in on his deals with St. Petersburg crime bosses. So let me explain the "diesel deal" the way they would — in gangster slang. Because that's the language Putin actually thinks in.
First, the facts.
Putin just raised Russia's 2027 military budget by 27% to a record 17.1 trillion rubles — about $203 billion. Who budgets that kind of money for a war they're about to end?
The FT reported yesterday that Western intelligence has warned the heads of European defense companies that Russia is plotting to assassinate them.
Since September, Tusk, Macron and the intelligence services of Poland, Czechia, Latvia, Belgium, France and Denmark have all warned that Russian hybrid attacks — including drone and missile strikes — will intensify in the coming months.
None of this looks like a country preparing for peace.
Who actually benefits?
🇺🇸 What the US gets: Every serious analysis I've read says the announced volumes won't move American diesel prices. This is a PR move for Trump before the midterms — a story about prices that will "very, very soon" come down once his friend Vladimir's tankers reach US shores, plus the chance to claim he ended another war (I've lost count). The only US "benefit" is Trump's rating.
🇷🇺 What Russia gets: billions of dollars to keep funding its genocidal war against Ukrainians. Sanctions relief. A demonstration of power to the rest of the world. A deeper rift between the US and its European allies. And a real chance to disrupt US weapons and intelligence flowing to Ukraine.
So what is Putin's actual goal?
Trump's disapproval is at record highs and polls show his party will most likely loose midterm elections. In less than a month his power will be badly weakened. Why would Putin sign a long-term peace deal with a lame duck whose signature will soon be scrutinized at best and annulled at worst?
He wouldn't. And here's where the slang comes in.
In the eyes of Putin and his siloviki, Trump is a baryga — a greedy, unscrupulous businessman who puts profit above law and principle. Gangsters despise barygas, but they love using them. The goal is always to turn a baryga into a lokh — a mark, an outsider who doesn't understand the rules of the underworld and gets played to serve the gang's interests.
By signing the diesel deal, Putin plays two scenarios at once:
A) The deal miraculously helps his lokh keep power — great.
B) The deal changes nothing, the baryga loses the midterms — but by then it has already done its job: inflamed US political tensions and acted as arson inside the American system.
Putin knows that the majority of Americans support Ukraine. He knows that by signing, Trump draws unprecedented criticism, including from his own party. And he knows a baryga won't give up power easily, because he will have to answer for everything he did in office — this deal included. That's classic gangster/secret-service method: tie a man to your organization, make him a partner in your crimes, so he can't walk away.
Pouring more oil — diesel, in this case — onto the most explosive fault lines of American politics, raising the stakes for Trump and pushing him past the point of no return serves Putin far better than a peace deal that could be voided within months.
Remember: Putin's goal in the West is chaos, not peace.
This is an informative post on the attributes of this strong jet like wind band northwest of #Isaias. I think the differences in the structure of this feature are just different enough that this is not the classic sting jet. But the key ingredients are similar.
Quick case study w/AI using HRRR operational data on the "sting jet" with Hurricane Isaias. I supplied a hypothesis based upon my old research.
Yes -- definitely a "sting jet" but origin not like intense extratropical cyclones -- intense air stream was in lower-levels and only dried / descended at very end of the road.
Call it --> "cold-conveyor-belt jet wrapped round the upshear side of a hurricane in extratropical transition, with a sting-jet-like descent at its end."
The trough decapitated the storm's PV tower, shearing it apart, then drying its west side, and forcing the descent. The trough did not supply the wind -- that was entirely the hurricane undergoing ET.
forecasteagle.com/cases/isai…
James G. LaDue, CCM retweeted
Durante estos espacios se abordan temas relacionados con el monitoreo sísmico y la gestión del riesgo, promoviendo el acercamiento entre especialistas, autoridades gubernamentales y municipales, integrantes de las COLRED, representantes de organizaciones de la sociedad civil...
The highest nontornadic wind gust I’ve seen tonight came at 2030 LT from the Jay station 20 mi north of Pensacola Airport courtesy of the FAWN network. I didn’t expect to see a gust to 118 mph that far inland and northwest of the land falling storm.
Adding Matt Cappucci’s post talking about a sting jet like feature in the model fcst. The sfc winds wound up northeasterly along the convective band whereas Keith Browning’s 2004 model comes as Matt described but with rapidly deepening cyclones. Let’s update conceptual model.
STING JET-like feature likely to form with Hurricane Isaias, increasing risk of "stinger" of destructive 95-105 mph wind gusts on its back side. This could affect Mobile, Gulf Shores, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Pensacola, Milton, Navarre, Fort Walton Beach and perhaps Destin.
Isaias will be beginning to transition to a non-tropical storm around landfall. It will swirl a LOT of very dry mid-level air around on its back side.
Wraparound rains just west of Isaias's low pressure center will be swirled into that dry air. The rain, and moisture, in the stinger will rapidly evaporate in this region, and the air will become dry quickly. Dry air is denser and therefore heavier, so that air will sink – and drag strong winds from high altitudes down to the surface.
That will lead to a narrow "stinger" of 95-105 mph wind gusts on the southwest side of the center, which usually is the less potent side. These winds will be northerly or northwesterly and blow OFFSHORE. The sting jet-like feature could penetrate up to 30 miles inland.
Given the fact that these are dry parcels (pockets) of air descending, the sting jet may not feature rain.
A similar sting jet-like feature formed during Hurricane Milton's landfall exactly two years ago tonight, bringing 100+ mph wind gusts to Sarasota.
Radial winds from KEVX are coming down and the NHC lowered #Isaias to 2. The highest wind gust I saw was a handheld anemometer gust of 85 mph which I think can convert to 100 mph unless the spotter was in a high exposure spot. I’m expecting a peak measured gust of around 105.
I’m watching supercells in the main feeder band move westward and emerge from the other side as a thin rain band embedded in the half circle eye wall of #Isaias. I see other bands, each one with a velocity perturbation. Fascinating.
James G. LaDue, CCM retweeted
The new SPC REFS page is here!
spc.noaa.gov/exper/refs/view…
The techniques devs (mostly Tim) have worked tirelessly on this, on a short deadline. This is SPC's own ensemble of best-performing REFS/HRRR members. I think the pan and zoom is really cool:
