Physics teacher, tech geek and jack of uncorrelated trades. Attitude is everything...find joy in the journey!
Joined February 2018
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I've been involved w/ tech since the early 90's and have framed a few tenants over the years:
1. If a new tech blows my mind, like keeps me up at night, and totally consumes me, it will eventually change the world, but...
For Bitcoin specifically, Binance hack is roughly 18k BTC whereas Mr. Gox was 850k BTC. 48x more Bitcoin stolen in Gox.
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Finding truth in tragedy and improving from it is crucial to human progress. Really enjoyed this talk about by @bgurley at the @theallinpod summit this week.
youtu.be/A4Q7zAayW20
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The AI data center / Anthropic doomer irony:
Assume resistance against data centers is marginally successful in the short to medium term, but AI continues to improve and demand grows anyways. This is the most probable outcome I see presently. What then?
Anthropic compute will be constrained and what they can access will cost them more. Given their current tact, they clearly haven't achieved ASI yet. 😂
AI compute will shift the only place it can---local. Open source demand & popularity grows. Businesses and homes will inevitably stand up more compute and mini data centers in offices that truly strain the grid and cause actual price increases, in front of the meter.
As with any transformational tech, there's no stopping this train. This could be totally avoided with large scale, thoughtful permitted planning, behind the meter projects. Instead, we'll get decreased efficiency with home and small scale, unpermitted mini data centers in busineses.
The end result is worse for environment, worse for middle class blue collar workers, worse for middle America towns that could have profited, worse for national security, worse for GDP, and worse for those least able to afford higher energy prices.
This is too complicated for a mid-term political ad, but this is not hard to piece together. Come on folks. Hoping this becomes mainstream understanding after November and we get back to building the future instead of handing it to our adversaries.
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The “data centers will drink all the water and eat all the power” panic is going to age as poorly as “AI is useless because it's bad at math and hallucinates too much.”
We’re sharing a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize Problem, one of the deepest problems at the frontier of mathematics.
The proof was produced by a group of agents, using an OpenAI next-generation model significantly more capable than GPT-6 Astra.
The problem concerns whether the description of smooth three-dimensional fluid motion modeled by the Navier-Stokes equations can break down. It has remained unresolved for roughly 90 years.
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US Bitcoin reserve is gonna actually be an AI reserve
Better just to send money directly to the people from the Treasury.
So long as the increase in goods & services exceeds the increase in the money supply, which will be the case with AI & robots, there will not be inflation.
In fact, my prediction is that we will desperately be fighting deflation!
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2026: became clear that agents are white collar robots
2030: will be clear that humanoids are blue collar robots
Same function, a few years delayed. The masses don't love working in cubes or ditches. Will be as freeing for humanity as the industrial revolution.
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@elon never gives up on his big dreams: internet money, space travel, and battery powered self driving robot cars. Rolling robots now lead to humanoids which are really just miniature, but very precise self-driving cars.
The reason why Elon Musk started working on reusable rockets
"I started reading quite a bit about rockets to try and understand why they're so freaking expensive
If one could make them reusable like airplanes, then the cost of rocketry would drop dramatically
The cost of the fuel was maybe anywhere from 0.2% to 0.5% of the cost of the rocket
I came to the conclusion that there wasn't really a good reason for rockets to be so expensive and that they could be a lot less even in an expendable format
"Nobody had really been able to make a reusable rocket work... but if we can do that, then that would really be the key breakthrough"
- Elon Musk
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In the age of AI, "be the most hyper curious person" in your work.
Bill Gurley just identified the only career advantage that AI cannot commoditize.
It isn’t talent. It isn’t your degree. It isn’t your network.
Gurley: “The thing that will differentiate you more in your career than anything else is to be the most hyper curious person that’s trying to do this thing.”
For centuries, knowledge was gatekept. Elite institutions. Expensive mentors. Geographic luck.
The information existed but access to it was the moat.
That moat is gone.
Gurley: “You have no excuse not to be the most knowledgeable person, because the information’s all out there.”
Every question you can formulate now has an answer available instantly.
Every industry. Every domain. Every skill you want to acquire.
The playing field didn’t just level. It inverted.
The people who used to win by controlling access to information now compete against anyone willing to ask better questions.
Gurley: “I can’t make you the most talented person in your company or your field.”
Talent is genetic. It’s luck. It’s the variable you cannot control.
But knowledge is a choice. And curiosity is a compounding asset.
Gurley: “If you are the most curious person that’s constantly learning in your field, you will do extremely well.”
This was always true. What changed is the multiplier.
Gurley: “That advantage is put on steroids with these AI tools.”
A relentlessly curious person with access to all human knowledge and the ability to interrogate it in real time doesn’t just outlearn their peers.
They outlearn entire institutions.
The gap between the curious and the incurious was always there.
AI just made it insurmountable.
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Tim has been much more right than wrong about macro and Bitcoin over the last 5 years I've followed his research. He speaks what data tells him, regardless of consensus. Not always what we want to hear but it leads to alpha.
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1) Are stocks at top-of-cycle? Yes! Does that mean crash? No!
2) How long can stocks stay on top? 20 years! ('85 - '05) The reason: the internet.
3) What about this time? 20 years! The reason: AI + robotics.
4) Is gold at top-of-cycle? No!
5) How long till it gets there? Years! (at least 5).
6) Ratio of stocks to gold performance is 2:1 !!
7) Upside gains for gold? Assuming 13%/year, Gold -> $6,800. Silver -> $400!
8) Upside gains for stocks? Assuming 26%/year, S&P 500 -> 51,000!!
9) Stocks minus gold has reversed -> gold will probably outperform stocks in the near term.
10) For how long? About 5 years!
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Palantir CEO prediction of AI impact on jobs, companies and governments:
"The revolution that's coming is going to expose the actual market value of what you are doing."
- Alex Karp, WEF 2026.
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Instead of criticizing compensation of those building our biggest factories, might be smart to do the opposite and create incentives for CEO's building things. China is not messing around. US playing politics with those we will need to preserve freedom is very short sighted.
In WWII, US auto factories were used to build planes and weapons. China would do the same, if needed...a 50 sq mile military drone and autonomous sub factory. People can't fathom how many they can produce. This one alone is 5x bigger than our top 3 combined!
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👐🏻 for $ZEC...the one alt I've held through all the bears, on principle. Thank you to @zooko and the whole dev community
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This is holding back new money flowing into Bitcoin more than people realize. I believe this is the biggest reason for the lack of a blow off top this cycle. There are just so many other massive opportunities.
You may not realize it now, but:
We are witnessing a once in a lifetime run in markets, driven by the intersection of one of the biggest technological revolutions in history, deregulation, and trillions of dollars of investment.
What a wild ride.
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An additional two factors: teapaw.org/BitcoinPierre/status/1…
Bitcoin has been trading almost sideways for the past year after a massive rally from the 2022 lows. Three factors: OG whales taking profits after an epic decade, tech traders rotating into NVDA and other LLM-related opportunities, and commodity traders rotating into gold.
These are external and temporary negative catalysts. Bitcoin's intrinsic utility and fundamental value have only increased over the past year.
Bitcoin continues to be the most undervalued asset in the world.
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Odds favor ≈$145k soon enough. It's never a straight line. It never takes the path everyone agrees on.
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👀🤔🤯
Elon Musk: In the future, you'll be able to inhabit an Optimus robot.
“As we advance the Neuralink devices, you should be able to actually have full body control and sensors from an Optimus robot. So, you could basically inhabit an Optimus robot. Not just the hand, the whole thing. So you could basically mentally remote into an Optimus robot and it'll be kind of cool. The future is going to be weird, but pretty cool.”
Neuralink presentation, June 27, 2025
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Good read, but to appreciate this, you need to understand the concept of intelligence and AI productivity being related to how long a human can work on a problem. Think of the detailed attention and time on task it takes a human to solve a hard calculus or physics problem vs a two step arithmetic problem. How long an AI can think and stay on track is like the difference between a human who can only do simple arithmetic vs one who can do calc. So, AI working 2x longer before going off track is a big, big deal! And it's getting 2x better again, and again and again over a two year period.
As a researcher at a frontier lab I’m often surprised by how unaware of current AI progress public discussions are.
I wrote a post to summarize studies of recent progress, and what we should expect in the next 1-2 years:
julian.ac/blog/2025/09/27/fa…
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