Analyser les tendances du marché et les politiques commerciales du Canada 🇨🇦 et au-delà 🌍.
Toronto
Joined June 2022
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Jake Stevenson retweeted
The Iran War, Isaias storm, and their continuing impact on business.
“Closing the book too early” is exactly the risk, and these two animations show why. The first shows strands fading in and out: Hurricane Isaias faded within days, but policy, Russian diesel supply and the war in Iran took up the load, and the effects are still traveling outward to food prices and brewers as hedges roll off.
The book on the storm closed. The book on what it crossed did not.
The second is not a finished exhibit. It is our Reverberation Lab’s continuous, human-set tracking: built only from what the lab has recorded, and updated at regularly scheduled check-ins, with the check-in periods for monitoring each strand set by the human orchestrator, not the system. It includes the two places where the record caught its own misses.
That is what ARA™ RAM 2025™ running on SLAP OS™ is built to do: keep the book open, let the outcome become evidence, and carry what changed into the next decision.
Jake Stevenson retweeted
Maps are static snapshots of what is believed to be true. The real world does not work that way.
procureinsights.com/2026/10/…
Jake Stevenson retweeted
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Curious about how much Chinese value added is hidden in each ASEAN country's exports to the US?
1. Chinese value added in total exports to the US
🇰🇭 Cambodia: Around 26%
🇻🇳 Vietnam: Around 21%
🇹🇭 Thailand: Around 8%
🇮🇩 Indonesia: Around 7.5%
🇸🇬 Singapore: Around 7%
🇲🇾 Malaysia: Around 8%
🇵🇭 Philippines: Around 5%
ASEAN average: Around 12%.
Cambodia and Vietnam stand out. A significant share of the value of their exports to the US originates in China.
2. The picture is even more interesting for electrical and optical equipment.
🇻🇳 Vietnam: Around 28%
🇵🇭 Philippines: Around 15%
🇲🇾 Malaysia: Around 12%
🇹🇭 Thailand: Around 11%
Vietnam's share increased sharply, particularly after 2017, reaching almost 28% in 2024.
What does this mean?
Imagine Vietnam exports a $100 electronic product to the US. If Chinese value added accounts for 28%, approximately $28 of that export value was created in China, while the remaining $72 comes from Vietnam and potentially other countries.
This shows why changing the country of final assembly does not necessarily eliminate dependence on Chinese supply chains. One important distinction: Chinese value added is not the same as the value of goods shipped directly from China, nor does it prove that products are simply being re-exported through ASEAN.
Notes: Latest data shown 2024. Value-added trade statistics are usually published with a lag of one or two years.
Source: @amro_asia
Jake Stevenson retweeted
Vortexa: USG and West Africa VLCC rates are off 27% and 32% from their record highs in two weeks. The tide's turned, but with a record 29 Hormuz incidents in October, the floor should hold.
Jake Stevenson retweeted
White House targets robotics imports in a new national security trade review
logisticsmgmt.com/article/wh…
Jake Stevenson retweeted
US officials say yesterday's high-level meeting focused on economic pressure against Iran rather than military strikes, according to Axios reporter Barak Ravid
Jake Stevenson retweeted
Opening Print: China's Plenum Is Here. Will There Be A Consumer Boost?
youtube.com/watch?v=6L0P5JHh…
00:00 China's plenum: will there be a consumer boost?
00:36 What this meeting is, and isn't
01:14 GDP vs. retail sales
01:52 Car sales are the drag
02:12 Chinese households are saving more
02:43 Golden Week: traveling, spending less
03:07 Property: the main reason for caution
03:33 What Beijing has done: trade-ins and mortgages
04:12 The new promises
04:40 My test: where the next yuan goes
05:04 Prices: cost push, not demand
05:51 Exports and car overcapacity
06:15 China and ASEAN trade
06:33 Southeast Asia: who could win or lose
07:48 Markets: the CSI 300 and the yuan
08:16 Oil
08:51 This week: Fed, Big Tech, the plenum ends
09:24 Three things on my list
Jake Stevenson retweeted
Obsessing over competitors can lead companies to lose sight of the people they’re building for. Sushanth Raman, CEO at Pallet, explains why solving customer problems, rather than chasing competitors’ latest moves, can be the key to standing out.
“If you’re gonna focus on your competition, you’re gonna make a bunch of really stupid decisions because you’re too concerned about what features are launching and so on.
I just am gonna look at my customer and figure out how to just go solve your problems and I don’t really give a ***** about what everybody else is doing, I’m gonna build a far more interesting experience. What matters is, am I solving the client problems in a way that’s repeatable, successful?
You should not pay attention to your competition because you want unique insights and you actually want to play the game in your own way, otherwise you’re just gonna become the average everyone else
Rewatch the full episode with Sushanth on YouTube, or listen to it on Apple Podcasts, and Spotify, by searching 'The FreightCaviar Podcast'.
Jake Stevenson retweeted
Listen to the conspiracy theory level thinking you have to get to justify there isn’t demand. He even invokes “the laws of physics” as a reason for why there couldn’t be demand for these.
Performative skeptics call us AI/SI optimists deranged cult members while putting on tin foil hats and pretending physics is a demand limiter.
These people have figured out that if you arrange words together into the right order “the laws of physics” it can be used to end a debate with their audience.
Best to shine a light on this insanity
SpaceX CFO panicked on the earnings call
‘We installed them in the racks but we haven’t turned them on yet and there’s a very important reason why a CFO would jump in and cover their butt, because the second you turn on those GPUs you have to start depreciating them; you have to start booking the loss of the capital that you spent to buy them’
‘If they are not turned on yet you don’t have to encor that depreciation expense and if you take that exchange and the gigawatts and the CFO, that’s why our earnings are so great because we’re not depreciating all these assets’
‘They are just buying these things, buying them in thousands and they are just putting them on shelves; they aren’t even installing them, they can’t install them because they can’t get the data center built’
Jake Stevenson retweeted
UAE Foreign Minister and Arab League Chief Review Efforts to Enhance Regional Stability
#UAE #ArabLeague
@ABZayed
@mofauae
@lassecgen
Jake Stevenson retweeted
Brent is above $117 and WTI is at $103 on fears of new US strikes on Iran. Brent is trading around $117.2 to $117.4. That's its highest since March 19 and about $2 below this year's high, and it's up about $4 on the day. WTI is around $103.
Jake Stevenson retweeted
🔔Save the date and join us for our annual conference
Global Shifts, Regional Stakes: Looking Ahead to 2027
🗓️December 9 and 10
#CMEC2027
⚡️ More details here: carnegieendowment.org/middle…
Jake Stevenson retweeted
Canadian heavy oil is now selling at a US$28-per-barrel discount to the North American benchmark, as growing competition from Venezuela and limited pipeline capacity put pressure on prices. This is yet another reminder of the urgent need to expand pipeline infrastructure and diversify our energy exports. Canada cannot afford to keep its oil landlocked. #energy #trade
theglobeandmail.com/business…
Jake Stevenson retweeted
Not sure how anyone can be as confident as what I'm seeing on my timeline about what will happen over this weekend after the 34 Iran War weekends we've already experienced...
Jake Stevenson retweeted
What will it take for Canada to become an “energy superpower?”
On @erinotoole’s podcast “Blue Skies,” guest @ExnerPirot, director of energy and Senior Fellow at MLI explores what it will take for Canada to live up to its potential as a modern energy superpower. From oil and gas to nuclear energy, hydroelectricity to critical minerals, they examine Canada’s resource potential and the opportunities to strengthen our economy while leveraging energy security as part of Canada’s new “variable geometry” on the world stage.
Jake Stevenson retweeted
QatarEnergy has issued a tender to sell al-Shaheen crude loading via ship-to-ship transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz in early December, trade sources said on Wednesday.
The company also offered the grade for loading on a Free-on-Board basis at Qatar in mid- to late November, they said. #oott marketscreener.com/news/qata…
Jake Stevenson retweeted
The narrowing of crack spreads with WTI and Brent rallying is telling you we could be in this for the long haul. And the majority of stocks selling off hard in September confirmed it.
Jake Stevenson retweeted
“Long-term market leadership now belongs exclusively to firms that can balance continuous market-driven innovation with total operational discipline.” — Carl Odame-Gyenti, PhD
Read more; africabusinessinsight.com/ke…
#AfricaBusinessInsight #AfricaBusinessInsightNews
