Could the world’s most dangerous conflict be Taiwan? Yes! the world cannot absorb this conflict... In the quoted post, several Taiwan-related variables appear to converge around 2027. It may not be visually sophisticated, but it carries a very important strategic message. The intersection of military modernization goals, the declining probability of peaceful reunification, and the changing balance of deterrence all seem to point to the same date. This is worth keeping in mind as we continue the Taiwan discussion. Taiwan Not Ukraine. Not Russia. Not even the Gulf wars. The most dangerous conflict the world may still not be fully prepared for is Taiwan. Because this is not only a territorial dispute. It sits at the intersection of: history identity unfinished civil war Japan’s colonial legacy China’s rise the Koreas semiconductor production global shipping East Asia’s industrial system And because of that, the rest of the world would not be a spectator. Some historical background Taiwan passed through several defining phases. First, after the First Sino-Japanese War, Taiwan was ceded to Japan in 1895 and remained under Japanese rule until 1945. During this period, Japan industrialized the island, expanded railways, sanitation, sugar production, and education, deeply shaping its modern economic structure. After Japan’s defeat in World War II, Taiwan was placed under the Republic of China (ROC) with Allied and U.S.-backed postwar arrangements. Then came the decisive break: after the Chinese Civil War, the KMT retreated to Taiwan in 1949, while the People’s Republic of China was established on the mainland. Why are people of the same civilizational root in conflict? This is perhaps the deepest question. At the cultural and ethnic level, there are major overlaps: Han Chinese roots migration waves from Fujian and Guangdong later mainland migration after 1949 strong Japanese institutional legacy a distinct Taiwanese civic identity today Taiwan identiy So the conflict is less about ethnicity and more about: political legitimacy, sovereignty, and future alignment. The identity trend now makes this divide even more structurally complex. As the chart shows, the share of people identifying as Taiwanese only has risen from below 20% in the early 1990s to above 60% by 2025, while those identifying as Chinese only have fallen to nearly negligible levels. This suggests that Taiwan is no longer shaped only by historical migration roots or civilizational continuity. A distinct political and civic identity has clearly consolidated over time. This makes the issue even more sensitive, because any conflict scenario would not only be about sovereignty claims, but also about a population that increasingly sees itself as politically separate. Why the world is not ready The danger is not only military. And... a conflict here would directly affect: China Japan South Korea both Koreas indirectly Europe U.S. Chart source: @nccu1927

Vietnam is rising! Vietnam vs China: Industrial production indices (2020 = 100) The index measures changes in real industrial output, excluding price effects. Each country is compared only with its own production level in the base year. The charts show industrial production indices (2020 = 100), not absolute production volumes. An index of 140 means real output is 40% higher than in 2020. Each country is measured against its own 2020 level. Key observations Vietnam (blue) has outpaced China (red) in most manufacturing sectors since 2022–2023. Stronger Vietnamese growth is visible in total manufacturing, basic metals, rubber and plastics, wearing apparel, leather, electrical equipment, and motor vehicles. China remains relatively stronger or more stable in mining and quarrying and some traditional sectors. Overall, Vietnam’s industrial output has recovered and expanded more rapidly relative to its 2020 baseline than China’s in the majority of the sectors shown. This can be seen as assembly shifting away from China, but Vietnam is also creating real value. This could mark the beginning of a leap. In other words, if a leap is going to happen, Vietnam is ready! Source: @UNIDO