@eco3min

Macroeconomic regime research. Monetary transmission, liquidity cycles, geopolitical constraints. No signals. No noise.

eco3min.fr/en/
Joined December 2025
  • Tweets508
  • Following213
  • Followers34
33Media
Eco3min focuses on macroeconomic regimes, liquidity transmission and structural constraints. We don’t forecast headlines. We analyze mechanisms. Framework over forecasts. Regimes over narratives.
3
6
725
The US 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.32% this week, per Freddie Mac. The two prior weeks, at 7.40%, were the highest since November 2023. In late 2024 the Fed cut 100 bps while this rate rose 96 bps. It tracked the 10-year Treasury (+116 bps), not the policy rate.
1
1
2
64
Data, chart and sources: eco3min.fr/en/term-premium-d…

10Y Term Premium 1961–2026: Decomposed Yield Data

Fed cut rates 100bps in late 2024. 10-year Treasury rose 116bps. Decomposed across 65 years of NY Fed ACM data: it was the term premium.

eco3min.fr
1
41
11 US refineries have stopped processing crude since capacity peaked at 18.98 million b/d in January 2020, removing about 1.72 million b/d. Yet net capacity was down only 4.3% by January 2026: expansions put roughly 760,000 b/d back. Fewer, larger refineries, per EIA data.
1
1
12
Data, chart and sources: eco3min.fr/en/us-refinery-cl…

US refinery closures since 2020: the complete record

11 US refineries stopped refining crude since the 2020 peak — ~1.72M b/d gross, ~0.9M net after expansions. Registry with capacity, dates and primary sources.

eco3min.fr
1
7
The 2s10s Treasury spread was +33 bp on Oct 20, between February's +74 bp and the 2026 low of +20 bp on Sept 21 (U.S. Treasury data). Since 1976, all five confirmed sustained inversions preceded a recession. The sixth, a record 26 months to Aug 2024, is still under evaluation.
1
1
1
47
Data, chart and sources: eco3min.fr/en/yield-curve-in…

Yield Curve Inversion History: Recession Signals & 2s10s Since 1976

Complete history of 2s10s yield curve inversions since 1976, including timing, depth, and recession lead times. Data, charts, and macro analysis.

eco3min.fr
14
The median American man married for the first time at 30.8 in 2025, the highest in Census Bureau data going back to 1890. The youngest ages on record are not from the 1890s but from 1956: 22.5 for men, 20.1 for women. In 1890 the medians were already 26.1 and 22.0.
1
20
Data, chart and sources: eco3min.fr/en/us-age-at-firs…

Average Marriage Age in the US Since 1890 (Census Median)

The average marriage age in the US, as the Census median age at first marriage: 30.8 for men and 28.4 for women in 2025, against 22.5 and 20.1 in 1956.

eco3min.fr
1
13
📊 Our US Strategic Petroleum Reserve chart was featured on @SeekingAlpha 🙌 🛢️ 283M barrels: lowest since 1982 📉 Down from 727M in 2009 Full history 👉 eco3min.fr/en/us-strategic-p…

Crude Oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Back to Its 1982 Level

The SPR peaked at 726.6 million barrels in December 2009 and held 283.0 million on 2 October 2026. EIA data since 1977, interactive chart, CSV download.

eco3min.fr
1
14
📰 The Seeking Alpha article: seekingalpha.com/article/495…

The Risk I Feared Is Materializing (NYSEARCA:SPY) | Seeking Alpha

Rising long-term interest rates and debt costs are the primary macro risks to AI infrastructure investment returns. Read this for a cautious investing strategy.

seekingalpha.com
8
... I’ll leave the comment on this chart to you Manufacturing employment share vs. industrial production and GDP Source: @federalreserve
5
28
776
US CPI rose 3.7% over the 12 months to September. Energy: +20.4%. Core: +2.6% (BLS data, out this morning). In the five oil supply shocks since 1986, core inflation rose materially only when it already ran above 3% before the shock: +1.34 pp in 1990, +2.18 pp in 2022.
1
1
29
Data, chart and sources: eco3min.fr/en/wti-shocks-amp…

WTI Supply Shocks and US Core Inflation (1986-2026)

5 oil shocks since 1986. Only the 1990 and 2022 episodes — when core CPI was already above 4% — produced sustained core inflation. Oil amplifies the inflation that already exists.

eco3min.fr
1
15
At the 12 US stock-market peaks since 1953, the Baa corporate bond spread was widening at 4, a state seen in 47.0% of all months. Six months after the peak, it was wider at 9 of 12. Moody's data via FRED, monthly, 1953–2026.
1
1
2
48
Data, chart and sources: eco3min.fr/en/baa-credit-spr…

Baa credit spread vs stock market peaks, 1953–2026: widening at 4 of 12 tops, wider at 9 six months...

Moody's Baa minus 10-year Treasury at the 12 US stock-market peaks since 1953: widening at 4, a state found in 47.0% of all months, then wider six months on at 9. 1,203 months of data.

eco3min.fr
1
15
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve held 283.0 million barrels in the week ending Oct 2, its lowest level since 1982. That is 39% of the December 2009 peak of 726.6 million. The last month-end below today's level was September 1982, at 277.9 million. EIA data.
1
1
2
76
Data, chart and sources: eco3min.fr/en/us-strategic-p…

Crude Oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Back to Its 1982 Level

The SPR peaked at 726.6 million barrels in December 2009 and held 283.0 million on 2 October 2026. EIA data since 1977, interactive chart, CSV download.

eco3min.fr
2
26
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve held 283.0 million barrels in the week ending Oct 2, its lowest level since 1982. That is 39% of the December 2009 peak of 726.6 million. The last month-end below today's level was September 1982, at 277.9 million. EIA data.
1
1
2
527
Data, chart and sources: eco3min.fr/en/us-strategic-p…

Crude Oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Back to Its 1982 Level

The SPR peaked at 726.6 million barrels in December 2009 and held 283.0 million on 2 October 2026. EIA data since 1977, interactive chart, CSV download.

eco3min.fr
2
22
Around 2029, Americans aged 65 and older are projected to outnumber children under 18 for the first time in US history. In 1950 there were almost four children for every older adult. By 2024: 73.1 million children, 61.2 million aged 65+. US Census Bureau data.
1
1
16
Data, chart and sources: eco3min.fr/en/us-children-vs…

U.S. adults 65+ set to outnumber children by 2029

For the first time in U.S. history, adults 65 and older are projected to outnumber children under 18 around 2029. Interactive chart and full Census dataset.

eco3min.fr
9
Load more