Comparative political economist. Teaching @BlavatnikSchool, Oxford. Views my own, if at all.
Oxford
Joined September 2011
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James Conran retweeted
Viewing the world economy as a system of chokepoints has its own deadly blind spot, Yeling Tan & coauthors write in @ForeignAffairs. It is leading policymakers to focus on capabilities rather than strategy—to fixate on what leverage they have, & what leverage others have over them, rather than considering what happens when many countries build up their chokepoint power all at once. foreignaffairs.com/united-st…
James Conran retweeted
Despite the 2026 Budget being relatively well received, the public remain pessimistic about the state of the economy
State of economy
Good state: 5%
Neither: 18%
Bad state: 74%
Economy over next year...
Get better: 13%
Stay about the same: 20%
Get worse: 59%
yougov.com/en-gb/articles/55…
James Conran retweeted
In terms of perceived fairness, the 2026 Budget is the best received since Rishi Sunak's March 2021 Budget
Oct 2026: +25 net fair
Nov 2025: -27
Oct 2024: ±0
Mar 2024: -5
Mar 2023: -2
Nov 2022: +1
Sep 2022: -38
Mar 2022: -21
Oct 2021: +9
Mar 2021: +39
Mar 2020: +40
James Conran retweeted
This is quite something ! Serbian RTV channel starts yesterday's bulletin by apologizing to viewers👇
"For years, we failed to fulfill our duty. We kept silent, turned a blind eye, reported events one-sidedly and failed to ask necessary questions. We owe our viewers an apology”
James Conran retweeted
27% of Microsoft’s workforce 👀
Microsoft offers voluntary buyouts to 60,000 employees cnbc.com/2026/10/26/microsof…
James Conran retweeted
Floating Orbán feels like a stalking horse from Trump and his autocratic friends meant to make the UAE’s Lana Nusseibeh look like the “compromise candidate.” Countries shouldn't be fooled into handing the UN to a top denier of the UAE’s role in arming the RSF in Sudan's genocide.
New: Sources from three countries confirm that the Trump Administration has advocated Viktor Orbán for UN Secretary-General.
The US has encouraged Orbán to enter the race, even bringing him the initial idea of a joint U.S.-Russia-China candidacy.
WSJ:
wsj.com/opinion/viktor-orban…
James Conran retweeted
New: Sources from three countries confirm that the Trump Administration has advocated Viktor Orbán for UN Secretary-General.
The US has encouraged Orbán to enter the race, even bringing him the initial idea of a joint U.S.-Russia-China candidacy.
WSJ:
wsj.com/opinion/viktor-orban…
James Conran retweeted
Serbia, 56.0% sample of CeSID / Ipsos parallel count:
National parliament election
SL-*: 52.0% (+52.0)
SNS+-EPP: 39.3% (-8.8)
SPS/JS+-*: 2.3% (-4.4)
SVM-EPP: 0.9% (-0.8)
NDSS/PKS-*: 0.8% (-4.4)
PDD+-*: 0.8% (+0.8)
SDP/CDP-*: 0.5% (+0.5)
SDA Sandžaka-NR: 0.4% (-0.2)
PSS BK-*: 0.4% (+0.4)
SPP-*: 0.3% (-0.5)
SSP/SRCE+-PES: 0.3% (+0.3)
RS/NKPJ-*: 0.2% (-0.1)
LZS-*: 0.1% (+0.1)
SRSJ-*: 0.1% (+0.1)
NS/BUNT-*: 0.1% (-0.8)
Gruda-*: 0.1% (+0.1)
SBR/GSGS-*: 0.0% (-0.2)
ĆOJZT-*: 0.0%
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/serbia
James Conran retweeted
The IDF chief of staff has effectively told/confirmed to the Israeli public that Netanyahu is trying to provoke a war with Iran for political survival.
חשיפה עכשיו במהדורה |
עימות חסר תקדים בין הרמטכל לבין ראש הממשלה שהגיע לשיא או לשפל ביממה האחרונה
הנושא ברקע: הסוגיה האיראנית
וחשש של זמיר שנתניהו והדרג המדיני עלולים להוביל לתרחיש של מיסקלקולציה מול איראן רגע לפני הבחירות
גורם ביטחוני: מדובר בפעולה שעלולה להוביל לעימות בזק מול איראן בעיתוי רגיש ודרמטי, ולייצר מיסקלקולציה
גורמים בקיאים בפרטים: חשש של הדרג הצבאי מניסיון לנצל את הסוגיה האיראנית לתנופה פוליטית , טענה שגורמים מדיניים מכחישים וטוענים שמדובר בשקר של ממש
כך או כך, 2 מקורות מספרים לי שזה הגיע לרמה שהיום בביקור בפלמחים האווירה בדיון הייתה עכורה עד מאוד
בימים האחרונים זמיר קיבל איזושהי הנחיה מהדרג המדיני אבל ביקש דיון מעמיק לפני ביצוע
הוא גם ביקש אסמכתאות חוקיות וחתומות של הדרג המדיני על המהלך
בכיר ביטחוני: ההיסטוריה לא תשכח את התפקיד שמילא פה זמיר בימים האחרונים
ובשורה התחתונה: עימות יוצא דופן בחריגות שלו בין זמיר לנתניהו, סביב הסוגיה באיראן, רגע לפני מועד הבחירות.
נדגיש: כל הפרטים בידיעה הזו עברו את אישורה של הצנזורה הצבאית
James Conran retweeted
Brazil’s electoral authorities have ordered the arrest of Salvador’s municipal mobility secretary, Pablo Souza, following widespread reports of bus shortages during today’s presidential runoff.
According to @Folha, voters in several neighborhoods of Salvador, the capital of Bahia, reported long waits and overcrowded bus stops, despite requirements that public transportation be free and operate at normal weekday frequency on election day.
www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/…
James Conran retweeted
Un policier assène un violent coup de matraque à l’arrière de la tête d’un manifestant.
Un geste extrêmement dangereux, pouvant provoquer une commotion cérébrale, une hémorragie intracrânienne, des séquelles irréversibles, voire la mort.
Ces coups sont même interdits à l’UFC.
James Conran retweeted
Open sourcing my regression lectures 🍻
AI is changing how we teach. Here’s one way I’m adapting: I’ve open-sourced my regression course, POLI 450A, built on Jens Hainmueller’s original class.
The course is suitable for first-year political science PhDs, as well as advanced undergraduate students in economics, political science, and other social sciences.
The materials include slides, R code, data, worksheets, and a short video for every lecture.
github.com/xuyiqing/regressi…
James Conran retweeted
FT: In Brazil, "almost 2mn people, mostly men, now work full-time for transport or delivery apps — around 2 per cent of the workforce — with driver numbers climbing 37 per cent in three years, according to government research. The most common reason people work for the apps is that they could not find another job."
The FT notes that in Brazil, the transport and delivery app economy has become a kind of unemployment insurance scheme, although one with declining "benefits".
The same is true in China. It is hard to get good data, but the best estimates are that 12% of China's working population works in the gig economy, of which 7% work in the transport and delivery app economy – i.e. three to four times the share in Brazil.
ft.com/content/3868b320-2c24…
James Conran retweeted
extrait :
Alors que le pouvoir désigne l’ultragauche et LFI comme responsables des pillages de ce week-end, des policiers réfutent ces accusations. Un commissaire du renseignement affirme même avoir eu pour consigne de cibler le parti de Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
mediapart.fr/journal/france/…
James Conran retweeted
Alors que le pouvoir désigne l’ultragauche et LFI comme responsables des pillages de ce week-end, des policiers réfutent ces accusations. Un commissaire du renseignement affirme même avoir eu pour consigne de cibler le parti de Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
mediapart.fr/journal/france/…
