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Former Republican, Politically Homeless, Never Trump, Never Vance, Haley Voter, Election and Redistricting Expert. 🇺🇦🇮🇱

Joined December 2020
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According to State Navigate: Gov Margin Projection: Spanberger+14.0 My Prediction: Spanberger+14 HoD: 64-36 D My Prediction: 64-36 D Unless AC Cordoza pulls off a miracle I will have 100/100 HoD races correct and be within 0.1% of the gov margin. Please clap.
FINAL 2025 PREDICTIONS: VA Gov: Safe D🟦 Spanberger+14 VA LT Gov: Safe D🟦 Hashmi+11.5 VA AG: Leans D🟦 Jones+2 NJ Gov: Likely D🟦 Sherrill+7 VA HoD: Safe D🟦 64-36 D NJ GA: Safe D 🟦 53-27 D NYC Mayor: Safe Mamdani🟦 Mamdani 50% Cuomo 30% Sliwa 20% In short, I expect a blue wave
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The Talarico-manders are going to be BIBLICAL
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In 2024, Kaufman County, TX (just east of Dallas) was the most left-trending large county in Texas, as Harris improved several points on Biden. Though it was still very red in those cycles, Talarico appears to have carried it by about a percentage point.
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I expect a 4-4 incumbent protection map in Wisconsin. One of the few states certain to redraw this cycle.
WISN: Governor-elect David Crowley says he’d sign a bill that immediately redraws Wisconsin's congressional maps if passed by the Democratic-controlled legislature early next year. Link to article: wisn.com/article/crowley-say…
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Personally not my cup of tea but way better than the Christian nationalist version on the right
One major strategic win for Democrats was the appeal of the “liberal Christian” candidate. Talarico and Hamilton turned Trump +14 Texas and Trump +17 Kansas into their clearest paths to Senate control, outperforming candidates in Ohio, Iowa, South Carolina, and likely Alaska.
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They didn't like that Crowley was pro Big-Thansgiving
While it still voted 79% for David Crowley, the only county to swing right from 2024 in Wisconsin was Menominee County, a majority-Native area.
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