1/ Russo-Ukraine War Weekly Operational Assessment: Russia lost ground for a 4th straight week. We lowered our culmination call anyway: very likely → likely (55–80%).
Why: a 31 km² Russian gain north of Kharkiv, its largest since September, and first reinforcements toward Lyman.
Week 44 + October review: jominiofthewest.substack.com…
4/ The air war went the other way. October drone launches: 5,736, 15% above the summer average. Interception held at 84%, so ~900 got through.
This week: a 433-drone night, daytime waves three days running, and a train strike at Dnipro that killed at least 14.
5/ Scorecard: 9 of last week’s 16 forecasts correct. Brier 0.24, worse than last week’s 0.19.
Three misses were wording: we forecast “Ukrainian gains” where Russia lost ground but the Ukrainian table logged nothing.
Full issue, 17 forecasts to Nov 25: jominiofthewest.substack.com…
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1/ Russo-Ukraine War Weekly Operational Assessment:
Russia’s autumn offensive has very likely (80–95%) culminated, up from likely last week.
All three indicators at once: a second major weekly net loss (43.57 km²), an assault tempo of −19%, and three Ukrainian brigades transferred to the Kramatorsk axis. Russia moved none.
jominiofthewest.substack.com…
3/ Three Russian missile salvos this week included ballistic missiles. Ukraine reported intercepting none.
It has received 24 Patriot interceptors in 90 days. It is very likely (80–95%) that the grid will remain Russia’s main target through winter.
4/ Scorecard: of last week’s 14 operational forecasts, 8 were correct and 6 missed.
The pattern in the misses: we expected Russian advances along the Krasnopilia, Velykyi Burluk, and Dobropillia axes. Russia lost ground in all three.
jominiofthewest.substack.com…
Contrary to President Trump's recent Truth Social post, the Pentagon still prepares for the possibility of ground operations against Iran.
🇺🇲🇮🇷BREAKING | According to CBS News, Pentagon officials have developed detailed plans for the possible deployment of U.S. ground forces in Iran — in preparation for this option, high-ranking military commanders have already presented specific requests to the leadership in case President Donald Trump makes such a decision.
The preparation also includes how Iranian military personnel and paramilitary units will be detained, including where Iranian military prisoners will be transferred.
Additionally, in the Middle East, the U.S. Army's Immediate Response Force (IRF), which is part of the 82nd Airborne Division, and approximately 5,000 Marines from the 11th and 31st Marine Expeditionary Units (MEU) are planned to be deployed.
See the latest updates with us: @visionergeo
For your consideration: President Trump's recent Truth Social post about the state of the war with Iran. Courtesy @sentdefender
In a post moments ago on TruthSocial, President Trump stated that they are getting “very close” to meeting their objectives in the Iran War and are considering winding down military efforts in the Middle East directed at Iran, with those objectives including:
1. “Completely degrading Iranian Missile Capability, Launchers, and everything else pertaining to them.”
2. “Destroying Iran's Defense Industrial Base.”
3. “Eliminating their Navy and Air Force, including Anti Aircraft Weaponry.”
4. “Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability, and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation, should it take place.”
5. “Protecting, at the highest level, our Middle Eastern Allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others.”
President Trump closes the post by stating regarding the Strait of Hormuz: “The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it - The United States does not! If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn't be necessary once Iran's threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them.”
Reporting from @sudanwarmonitor on fighting around Dilling, Sudan.
Siege of Dilling: Sources report fighting around the city in recent days between the Sudanese army and the allied rebel forces of RSF and SPLM-North. Below is footage of RSF troops at the PETCO pipeline station 12 km south of the city. 📍11.941115, 29.699068
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Statement by QatarEnergy regarding the overnight strikes on the GTL plant, courtesy @JavierBlas
Qatar state-owned LNG giant QatarEnergy has published a statement detailing the overnight damage, providing more granularity (particularly around the damage of the GTL plant).
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The US needs to keep building the necessary ground combat power to have a range of options to alter the calculus of the war with Iran.
Observed Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon, courtesy @LebMonitor1
🧵Monitoring Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon:
Me and @Stinky915846091 assessed Sentinel 2 satellite imagery (via @SoarAtlas and the Copernicus Dataspace Ecosystem) from March 17.
Here's what we could find:
Khiam:
- Major damage and visible ground activity (newly paved/heavily used roads, dug up soil, damaged buildings) throughout the southern and eastern neighbourhoods. Northern, western and central neighbourhoods seem to be mainly intact.
Addaysseh - Rab Thalatheen - Taybeh:
- Enormous damage to Addaysseh and Rab Thalatheen; dug up soil and newly paved/heavily used roads visible.
- Incursion towards Taybeh, with visible ground activity on the southern and eastern outskirts, coming from the direction of Addaysseh-Rab Thalatheen.
Aitaroun - Maroun Al-Ras - Yaroun:
- Dug up soil/paved areas visible in parts of Maroun Al-Ras.
- In Yaroun, a road shows heavy use plus a heavily damaged area at its end (suggesting ground demolition), but I could not find a logical explanation for how ground forces reached it. The road is not connected to any other heavily used roads from the border; it comes from the direction of Maroun al-Ras, but no heavy usage is visible from there either.
- In Aitaroun, no ground activity is visible. Either reports were false or the IDF was unable to advance in the area.
Aita Ash-Shaab - Ramyeh - Qouzah:
- In Aita Ash-Shaab, multiple controlled demolitions are visible (confirmed via geolocation too), along with newly paved/heavily used roads coming from the direction of the border.
- In Ramyeh, multiple damaged buildings are visible, but no clear signs of ground activity. Damage could be from artillery or airstrikes.
- In Qouzah, no ground activity is visible. Either reports were false or the IDF was unable to advance in the area.
Western Sector:
- No notable ground activity visible throughout the western sector. Either reports were false or the IDF was unable to advance.
Detailed analyses for the imagery we assessed is attached in a thread below.
Update on the progress of the Tripoli ARG, courtesy of @MT_Anderson
Quick update on the Tripoli ARG transit
OSINT Confirmed (Mar 18): Sentinel-2 imagery from 03:45 UTC shows the formation is still just two ships.
The USS Tripoli (LHA-7) and the USS New Orleans (LPD-18) were spotted making way ~55 km off Port Klang.
We are still waiting to see if they link up with additional escorts or the rest of the ARG before pushing further into theater.
The United States and Israel exert increased pressure on Iran by targeting its gas infrastructure, although it is uncertain whether this will prompt Iran to contemplate an immediate cessation of hostilities.
The U.S. and Israel have begun bombing Iran's gas infrastructure.
The strike on the Bushehr facility today represents an intensification of existing coalition tactics, pursuing two main goals:
First, to cripple the power grid.
Since the South Pars fields, which were hit, account for 70–75% of Iran’s natural gas production, and nearly 80% of the country's electrical grid is gas-fired, these strikes directly threaten national energy security.
Second, the U.S. and Israel anticipate that Iranian retaliation will target infrastructure in Gulf countries. This is a calculated move to further strain relations between Iran and the GCC, effectively dismantling any remaining hopes of regional neutrality as these countries are drawn into the conflict.
Escalation of the Iran War continues as Iran directly targets production facilities in the Gulf, reporting courtesy of @sentdefender.
QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan Industrial City to the north of Doha, Qatar's main site for the production of liquefied natural gas and gas-to-liquid, as well as the largest export terminal for LNG in the world, has been heavily targeted tonight by ballistic missiles fired by Iran. Extensive damage to the site and several facilities are being reported by QatarEnergy.
The clashes between the IDF and Hezbollah continue to escalate and intensify. Reporting courtesy of @AMK_Mapping_
Violent clashes are ongoing between the elite Hezbollah "Radwan" force and the IDF in southern Lebanon, especially in the towns of Meiss El Jabal, Taybeh, and Khiam where the IDF has been attempting to advance for some time.
Hezbollah has targeted 5 Israeli Merkava tanks with ATGMs in the last 24 hours, engaged in numerous clashes, and shelled IDF positions in these areas with rockets.
Update on the Progress of the Tripoli ARG as it keeps moving toward the Middle East, reporting courtesy of @MT_Anderson
HIGH-SPEED TRANSIT: USS Tripoli Flanked by Heavy Escorts
OSINT Update (Mar 15 imagery): Tracking the USS Tripoli (LHA-7) as she continues her rapid push toward the Middle East for Operation Epic Fury. She is not making this run alone.
The Fix: Spotted ~678 km from Manila, pushing deep into the South China Sea.
The Speed: Just like our last pass in the Bashi Channel, the Tripoli and her escorts are throwing massive wakes. This indicates a sustained, high-speed transit rather than a routine patrol.
The Muscle: The critical tactical update is her screen. She is now flanked by 2x Arleigh Burke Destroyers.
The Assessment: Running an aviation-optimized amphibious assault ship at high speed with a dedicated twin-destroyer escort is a heavily protected, offensive posture.
They are moving with purpose, bringing a major Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) umbrella with them as they sprint toward the theater.
Source: @esa
Date: 15 March 2026
@sentdefender






















