I discovered a new framework for understanding the housing bubble, the financial crisis, and costly housing markets. See my substack link for ongoing analysis.

Gilbert, AZ
Joined August 2010
Kevin Erdmann retweeted
Trump: "Angie Nixon was the lead sponsor of a bill to let schools turn children, all of them, transgender without parental consent"
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Kevin Erdmann retweeted
Saw this a few days ago and it’s put a worm in my brain. Can’t stop thinking about it.
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I found out today that I am personally the largest urban landowner in history. I need to quantify this, but I must have control over thousands of acres of prime real estate.
A Massachusetts country club claims that because its members have been shanking golf balls onto a neighbor’s property for 125 years, it has a legal right to stop that neighbor from building housing… 📍Tedesco Country Club, Marblehead
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Nashville, Austin, and Charlotte, ftw. Also 3 of the cities that have done the best job of increasing multifamily permits and keeping homes more affordable than similar cities since 2008.
"if you have been to downtowns of Atlanta, Dallas, Houston etc., lately, it ain't hard to look around and realize it's not where the action is." — @jayparsons
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Kevin Erdmann retweeted
The one genuinely zero sum aspect of housing is that there are some people no one wants to live around. Prices sort those residents into a few specific neighborhoods, and policies that resist this sorting will generate an enormous amount of deadweight loss.
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Kevin Erdmann retweeted
“The Simpsons” was a beloved animated sitcom that ran for ten legendary seasons and concluded in 1999. The show was celebrated for what was widely perceived as a near perfect run that wrapped before it wore out its concept and overstayed its welcome. Creator Matt Groening and showrunner James L. Brooks famously decided to bring the show to a conclusion after experiencing the negative audience reaction to the season 9 episode “The Principal and the Pauper,” in which it was revealed that the school’s principal was actually an impostor who had stolen the real Seymour Skinner’s identity. Brooks did not want to sully the show’s legacy by doing a bunch of weird episodes as the franchise slid into mediocrity and cultural irrelevance, so the writers and cast decided instead to go out on top and end things on a high note. However, because of its centrality in 90s pop culture, a long-running Internet joke is to pretend “The Simpsons” is still on the air, a premise that gets more absurd and deranged with each passing year. If this show were still producing new episodes, it would be in its 38th season now, and most of the voice cast would be in their 80s. The joke is to imagine how distorted this charming show would have become if it had been stretched out to more than 800 episodes. Comedy posters on “weird Twitter” used to try to top each other by making up terrible ideas for what modern episodes of the show might be like. For example, a viral 2012 tweet imagined an episode where Lady Gaga helps Lisa Simpson with her self esteem. In 2019, popular shitposter Megan Amram originated the premise of Bart Simpson becoming a men’s rights activist to protest a gender-swapped reboot of “Itchy and Scratchy.” But perhaps the most elaborate Internet “Simpsons” joke was a 2017 YouTube mockumentary “The Problem With Apu,” in which the comedian Hari Kondabolu ironically pretended to be offended by the charming and innocuous convenience store owner character Apu. Everyone thought this was hilarious, especially since the show had been off the air for nearly two decades when the mockumentary was released. So, Twitter ran with the joke by pretending to “cancel” Apu, and the viral gag memorably resulted in the character’s voice actor, Hank Azaria, recognizing the meme by promising never to perform the character again, which everybody thought was really funny since Azaria had been retired for years. Now, nearly a decade later, fans are pretending that the show — which has now been off the air longer than most people tweeting about it have been alive— has brought back the “cancelled” character with a new racially-appropriate voice actor. I actually don’t think this is that funny, and I kind of think the gag of pretending “The Simpsons” is still airing new episodes has overstayed its welcome, a mistake the actual show “The Simpsons” would never have made. If you haven’t seen this 1990s classic, which — and I cannot emphasize this enough — ended after 10 seasons in 1999, you can watch all the episodes on Disney+ (except the one with Michael Jackson that got pulled from streaming).
Apu has returned to The Simpsons. The character got a speaking appearance tonight for the first time in almost a decade, with Sunil Malhotra taking over the role.
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I don't know why he blocked me after making this reply, so I can't respond. His mistake in this reply is a key part of supply skepticism. It is empirically false. The cheapest, lowest amenity locations are the most inflated. Not the nicest. 1/
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This is a common circular argument that comes from the failure of the economics academy. Economists have fueled the myth that being a nice place makes cities expensive. Blocking building to a ridiculous degree is why they are expensive. 100% RtB cities don't displace the poor. 2/
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Kevin Erdmann retweeted
One of the most concerning trends in politics. Red states are desperately trying to speed run recreating the California housing market.
“I’m old. I’ve paid my home off,” said Ray Warner, a 72-year-old Akron resident. “Why would I pay property tax?” Across the country, homeowners are asking the same question and revolting against property taxes at a scale not seen in a half century. politico.com/news/magazine/2…
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If she was serious, she’d mandate rickshaws. Weak sauce.
DC is facing a jobs crisis. Rushing the legalization of autonomous vehicles is irresponsible given the anticipated AI-related job displacement and disruptions that put countless workers at risk.
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Kevin Erdmann retweeted
Site selectors confirm that the #1 economic development issue (and constraint on job growth) is power 🔌 bisnow.com/news/national/eco…
The #1 economic development issue in Arizona right now is power supply & the grid. Bar none. When we meet with site selectors that represent top employers, they talk about how it can often be a 4+ yr wait until they’re able to secure enough power for their facilities. We need 🔌
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Kevin Erdmann retweeted
can you imagine if a mayonnaise company also owned a hot sauce? chilling
Hellmann's mayo McCormick spices Cholula hot sauce Frank's RedHot What do these products have in common? One company could soon control them all. I have concerns that McCormick and Unilever's $45 billion merger could increase YOUR grocery prices.
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Kevin Erdmann retweeted
Cavemen Issues Dire Warning That The Wheel Is Going To Eliminate Countless Jobs
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Kevin Erdmann retweeted
According to the new @CatoInstitute Government Ownership Dashboard, the Trump admin has done 35 equity-stake deals since last June. Prior to that, US equity deals were unheard of in non-crisis times. You can dig into each one here: cato.org/restoring-free-ente… #CatoRFE @Cato_RFE
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They should invite Elizabeth Warren on to "Hot Ones" and then just serve her 10 wings with the exact same sauce on them, and then be like, "That's what Big Spice took from us. This is all we have now."
Hellmann's mayo McCormick spices Cholula hot sauce Frank's RedHot What do these products have in common? One company could soon control them all. I have concerns that McCormick and Unilever's $45 billion merger could increase YOUR grocery prices.
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This is interesting. The reason income plays such a large role is that the upper 1/3 of the regression are cities with a lot of highly regressive net outmigration. 30 years of poor families leaving bc there isn't housing greatly raises avg income. Causality goes the other way.
What makes homes so expensive in San Francisco, NYC and LA? High earners bidding up scarce housing, zoning that limits new building, and the amenities and density that make a city desirable but also slow and costly to build in. How much each factor matters is controversial.
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So, basically, 49% of that regression explains the way things always were, and 51% explains why they are different now.
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Upside-down CAPM, the AI boom, and interest rates, by @KAErdmann kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/…
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The illegal tariffs had a positive effect on real growth by temporarily creating a one-time windfall for corporations that received rebates, leading to an investment bonanza. Plausible?
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