Psych Investor

Compass' stock is down almost 30% since market open, likely because retail investors are losing their shit over the Usona news. Usona is developing the same API (psilocin) in a different formulation for a much larger target indication (MDD vs. TRD). News broke that Usona filed their NDA (last step in the regulatory process), which some sources like Psychedelic Alpha are suggesting MAY give them an edge over Compass. It’s extremely unusual for a commercially successful drug to have been taken through to NDA by a non-profit. There are examples, but not in neuroscience. I think the commercial strategy knowledge piece could be a major variable in who wins the market, regardless of how unusually the nonprofit is positioned. What I'm specifically referring to here is actually market access and less modality of delivery. Who has the prescriber and PBM relationships? The future success of a drug product like this is also probably somewhat dependent on BD relationships, especially because neither Usona or Compass have a proven track record in handing off drugs post-approval. On a somewhat unrelated tangent, I attended the UW-Madison School of Pharmacy for my Masters degree in Psychoactive Pharmaceuticals, and witnessed a somewhat failed attempt to build care delivery programming. I'm almost certain the the Wisconsin network has been trying to gain an edge in care delivery education and know-how, but I'm not sure this regional affiliation is any reason to believe that it's going to translate into some sort of edge commercially for Usona. I'm of the opinion that specialized care delivery is an overly analyzed segment. Care delivery knowledge and know-how will probably be helpful in understanding what a post-marketing commercial rollout can look like (specifically in terms of assumptions on the finmod), but I don't think it's the major piece here.