I've finally narrowed down my Flag Plant players for 2026 This is it; these are "My Guys" and "My Fades" that I am resting my reputation on But please, understand the reasoning behind the players I am fading 1. Their upside is not high enough relative to their ADP cost (I don't see them as "league-winners" in 2026) 2. There are other options near their ADP that I like a lot more 3. I expect them to underperform relative to their ADP or that they'll be volatile to the point they can't be trusted in your lineup on a weekly basis 4. They fall in an ADP range where I would much rather draft a different position (typically RB over WR or RB/WR over QB/TE)

I was curious how QBs rank when stripping away a lot of the things they cannot control or that are not representative of true passing efficiency By removing the following: screens, trick plays, checkdowns, throwaways, spikes, dropped passes, or WR errors Here is how QBs currently rank by ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt) with these conditions: 1. Michael Penix: 11.85 2. Brock Purdy: 11.76 3. Josh Allen: 10.89 4. Bryce Young: 10.29 5. Jared Goff: 10.27 6. Jayden Daniels: 9.94 7. CJ Stroud: 9.48 8. Patrick Mahomes: 9.45 .... 27. Justin Herbert: 5.52 28. Jacoby Brissett: 5.51 29. Daniel Jones: 4.79 Metrics per @FantasyPtsData

Which QBs have the shortest aDOT on 3rd-and-long or 4th-and-long (8+ yards to go)? - AKA, who is playing way too conservatively? 1. Kyler Murray: 3.86 Yards 2. Bo Nix: 4.90 Yards 3. Cam Ward: 5.48 Yards 4. Jacoby Brissett: 6.63 Yards 5. Drake Maye: 6.87 Yards Metrics per @FantasyPtsData

I feel like we are doing this exact same song and dance with JJ McCarthy as we did last year He comes in to a blowout game in the 4th quarter, where I would imagine defensive coverages/effort is a little softer, and performs fairly well - Then people immediately assume he can turn things around, and this is some sign he can play at a consistently average level However, despite the Giants' cakewalk schedule ROS, I would be legitimately worried if I was a Malik Nabers or Isaiah Likely owner - I guess if McCarthy fails, then Winston goes right back in I think any optimistic perception of McCarthy is founded on his ability to make impressive plays - Over the last two seasons, McCarthy leads the league in Hero Throw Rate at 9.5% (the next closest QB is at 6.8%) Yet, his biggest issue is playing consistently well through the entirety of a full game - He had a 52.4% completion rate and a 61.9% catchable throw rate in Week 6 (that is not good) Metrics per @FantasyPtsData

Which teams have the most favorable WR matchups in Week 7? This chart outlines FPG allowed vs. FP/Opportunity Allowed based on their defensive matchup Metrics per @FantasyPtsData

I feel like every DeVonta Smith owner is wondering the same thing after Week 6: Sell high or hold and ride the Tanner McKee wave? - McKee threw for 215 passing yards in Week 6 (Jalen Hurts averaged 186.6 in his 5 starts) Here is how Smith performed in Week 6 (per @FantasyPtsData): - 26.7% Target Share - 2.21 YPRR - 173 Air Yards 👀 - 35.3% First-Read Target Share 💪 - 20.6 XFP - 20.5 Fantasy Points My main concern was that the vast majority of his production came in the 4th quarter - 16.3 of his 20.5 Fantasy Points (79.5%) That is likely a combination of game script (being behind 12 points early in the 4th quarter) and McKee getting a little more comfortable 🤞 - Smith ran 44.1% of his routes in the 4th quarter alone, where McKee fed him a perfect 7-for-7 catchable targets One reason I am bullish on Smith ROS is how dominant he has been in a WR1 role If we just break things down to raw, non-gimmicky standard passing plays (no trick looks, screens, checkdowns, or scramble drills), here is how he ranks: - 38.6% Target Share (WR2) - 3.83 YPRR (WR4) - 0.42 TPRR (WR3) - 39.7% First Read Share (WR4) - 0.90 FP/RR (WR3) It's no surprise that Smith is clearly the most talented WR on the team and is getting fed as such And is my favorite "advanced stat" for him. What if we look at these non-gimmicky plays a little closer? In terms of his team share rate of separation wins on these plays? - AKA the percentage of route wins he has amongst the team DeVonta Smith ranks 1st in the league with a 54.5% route win share - Meaning, he has the highest percentage of route wins relative to the rest of his team This is a long-winded approach with a lot of data just to tell you that I've decided I am bullish on DeVonta Smith ROS - Don't fail me Tanner McKee

Here are the updated Strength-of-Schedule Matchup Grids for the rest of the season! (per @FantasyPtsData) I have included the playoff schedules (Weeks 15-17) for each team as well - The listing of whether a team's schedule got easier or harder is based on how much this data changed compared to last week

I have another ASS chart update for everyone! Average Separation Score against Man & Zone Coverages (per @FantasyPtsData) Why won't Daniel Jones target Josh Downs 😭

I have updated TE usage and volume trends for the last 4 weeks (per @FantasyPtsData)! 1. Check your waivers if Chig Okonkwo is still available because he is on a bye 2. Colston Loveland owners should love seeing his increased usage in Week 6 (I expect this to hold/continue to increase) 3. Dalton Kincaid is a nice buy target on his bye week after we saw his usage swing back in the right direction in Week 6 4. Harold Fannin's complete lack of volume has been shocking to see over the last few weeks (despite him having a top-5 route win rate among TEs this season) 5. Juwan Johnson's usage has been obliterated over the last two weeks, and he may not recover, with Jordyn Tyson expected back soon

I have updated RB usage and volume trends for the last 4 weeks (per @FantasyPtsData)! 1. I think that Woody Marks retains the RB1a role in Houston, even when David Montgomery returns 2. I am not as worried about Samaje Perine cutting in for more work as it pertains to Chase Brown's upside as most people are 3. It's interesting to see the fluctuation in RB usage with the Chargers and how that is going to look after their bye 4. It would be malpractice for John Harbaugh to continue to bench Cam Skattebo 5. Bucky Irving continues to earn a larger role every week, shrinking Kenny Gainwell's

I have updated WR usage and volume trends for the last 4 weeks (per @FantasyPtsData)! 1. Emeka Egbuka is going under the radar as a nice "buy candidate" based on his increased production and usage 2. Jerry Jeudy has slowly been squeezing KC Concepcion out of the WR2 role 3. Michael Wilson dropping in production and usage after the Cardinals traded Marvin Harrison is wild to see 4. My biggest concern for Garrett Wilson is the increased target competition he will face when the entire Jets offense is healthy