GP/CIO @StarkillerCap a quant driven digital assets investment firm, Founder @Estimize (acq), even I don’t agree today with everything I’ve tweeted

Joined January 2009
Air strikes alone are not going to accomplish this
Israel Hayom Report: The Iranian regime could ultimately fall if a devastating direct strike on its leadership is paired with military measures never used before. Past operations already set a precedent for this kind of strike. That assessment sits behind an operational plan Israel and the U.S. are now preparing. The aim is to topple the regime and end the "rule of fear" imposed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
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Putting aside whether owning the stock at $2T is a good bet, I’d be willing to bet the compute commitment not only never becomes an issue but still won’t be enough to serve the demand for intelligence that is basically infinite
Anthropic S-1 did not disappoint: TL;DR - exponential growth or they die. -$518B in reported compute commitments, ~80% payable whether used or not (whoa) -$132B cash -$81B H1 net loss, mostly noncash. Adjusted operating margin actually +10% -Explicit warnings about AI resisting shutdown, blackmail, and human extinction -Founders retain 50.1% voting control Now I'm focused on the compute payment schedule and insider unlock dates. $518B of commitments against $132B cash = goblin mode.
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Also, even if Anthropic’s business of selling models fails, they’ll still be able to cover that by simply selling inference Unless there’s some insane development in inference efficiency in the next few years someone is always gonna want those contracts
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Being an existential risk to humanity shouldn’t be an S-1 risk factor because if it’s right we’re all dead anyway, that’s not an investment risk Dweebs
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Is it? What’s don’t we know already
This has to be the most anticipated S-1 since Facebook, right?
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The next 5 years is just gonna feel like this over and over again
Thinking back to using OpenClaw and Hermes at the start of this year and comparing it to using the best tools on the market today is like comparing broadband internet to dialup It's absolutely insane how janky and clunky things were back then, and how INSANELY good they are now
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Leigh Drogen retweeted
it's the golden age of the white hats. the world has never needed you more. there should be a huge prize pool for finding flaws in civic infrastructure. their work should be strongly protected by statute
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There may yet be a time when Israel legitimately needs to strike Iran again There’s zero reason that time needs to be on the eve of an election Bibi needs to go, time to throw him out
פניתי הבוקר ליועצת המשפטית לממשלה בדרישה לפתוח בחקירה פלילית נגד בנימין נתניהו באשמת בגידה. בחודש האחרון ראש ממשלת ישראל, בנימין נתניהו, לוחץ על ראשי מערכת הביטחון לנקוט צעדים שעלולים לייצר מיסקלקולציה מול איראן. הניסיון לגרור את מדינת ישראל ערב הבחירות למלחמה, יחד עם הנכונות להקריב את חיילי צה״ל רק בשל חשש מהפסד בבחירות, הם בגידה במדינה, בביטחונה ובחיילי צה״ל.
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Leigh Drogen retweeted
I am okay with Kimi 3.1 deliberately leaving out top-end offensive cyber capabilities from their training data. Discriminating against use cases is MUCH less bad than discriminating against users. And the world does need all the time it can get to prepare, harden, check old code, (properly) formally verify new code, etc before the full weight of very powerful cyber attacks is upon us. And if this first big wave of AI risk is not handled well, then we may well get a dystopia of highly locked down models, KYC gating on everything, highly intrusive surveillance on everything, a society where you may be a second or third or fourth-class citizen in terms of model access based on your credentials and nationality.
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The debate over what to do about access to AI feels very similar to housing where people don’t want sprawl but also don’t want more density in downtowns It’s one or the other guys, and I vote for giving everyone AI instead of giving only a central authority all that power
Starting to get a little scared we are giving super intelligent agents to every single crazy fucker on the planet. Makes worries about guns look quaint.
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Just like I would rather have 6 story buildings take over downtown Whitefish instead of California style housing sprawl, I’d rather have every crazy fucker on the planet have AI access than give our central government the only power
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There’s going to be an epic masks off moment for a lot of tacitly anti Israel dems when Eizenkot wins, Bibi is gone, and their general sentiment doesn’t change because his foreign policy is basically the same Yes Bibi is bad, but let’s be honest, this was never about him
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The next CBA need to include arbitration and offer sheet rights for all RFAs
Sounds like Nikishin’s camp came to terms with fact #CarolinaCulture didn’t have a trade offer on the table they’d find acceptable, it was better to finally get playing again and worry about the future later. The $3m AAV was lack of leverage as a 10.2(c) player with no rights.
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Social reconning being a total flop was completely and utterly predictable
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I’d only for the sake of Smits, the Rangers need to move on from Schneider ASAP
Bad: Braden Schneider is not an NHL defenseman and Dylan Garand is not an NHL starter yet. Good: Adam Fox, HOLY s**t @NYRangersRadio | #NYR
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Sure, kinda… The difference is these people weren’t/arent sitting there saying “this is a fixable issue we simply need to fix”, they are dooming with rhetoric about how these are inevitable catastrophes, huge difference
Y2K was remediated exactly because people were rightly worried about it. Calling that doomer reads history backwards
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Leigh Drogen retweeted
We finally have an explanation for “Facebook is listening to me through my phone”. They’d never do that (and it’s not really possible). Turns out literally everyone else was — and then selling that to ad data brokers.
WTF, $3000 Samsung TV has an always-on mic, automatic content recognition, geo tracking, network mapping, and ships your data to Samsung + 400 partners. Bro Rooted a brand-new 2025 Samsung TV after noticing absurdly targeted ads. Firmware was locked down, so zero-days it was. Got a root shell. then found: always-on voice service, ACR, geo, full telemetry pipeline, and four separate DRM systems. This isn’t a bug, It’s the product bro.
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I wanna take some gummies and hang out with this dude
Another Devin Cooley banger just dropped 🍿
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Leigh Drogen retweeted
Ukrainian POW returned from Russian captivity in prisoner exchange had “Jew” carved into his back. Putin isn’t fighting Nazis, he IS the Nazi.
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lol of course
Dario Amodei was so worried about Y2K that his high school teacher still remembers it decades later. He’s been a doomer for much longer than I thought!
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