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Sailing the Macro Tides ๐ŸŒŠ
Joined January 2022
Take 5 minutes to watch this and understand LOGIC Macro Regimeโ€™s complete macro investing framework. We can help you predict market regimes 6-months ahead of time. Make more money with less risk.๐Ÿ‘‡ youtu.be/f_ihNaVuEy4?is=3-Zpโ€ฆ via @YouTube
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Hey @grok, will the HUMAN RACE really COLONIZE Mars?
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LOGIC Macro Regime retweeted
Everyone got it wrong. People expected neoclouds like $IREN, $NBIS and $CRWV to bomb today. Instead, optical stocks ripped to the heavens. $AAOI, $LITE and $AXTI all with double-digit gains. $COHR up +7%. Always remember... narratives aren't worth the LLM that spat them out.
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Trump signals a Canadian trade deal without reducing tariff risk Why it matters: A negotiated settlement could remove a major Canadian Growth threat, but the lack of specifics leaves January tariff exposure intact. President Donald Trump said on October 25 that the dispute with Canada would be settled โ€œpretty soon,โ€ but announced no agreement, timetable or concessions. At the same Michigan rally, he defended higher tariffs on Canadian goods; proposed January increases affecting autos, parts and steel remain a material downside risk. Canada did not immediately confirm that a settlement was approaching. reuters.com/world/us/trump-sโ€ฆ
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An exert from a blog we wrote in June, which appears to now be reversing: โ€œSynchronized easing doesn't stay confined to central bank ledgers; it moves through the financial system via the yield curve. When a growing percentage of central banks cut policy rates, the signal spreads through the term structure.โ€ Why the "Global Easing Cycle" is the Most Powerful Signal You're Not Tracking logicmacroregime.com/blog/glโ€ฆ
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LOGIC Macro Regime retweeted
Letโ€™s put this to the test, @grok Looking at the chart below, is the AI boom a bubble or not? Give us your honest odds and the ONE number that would change your mind.
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LOGIC Macro Regime retweeted
Navigating markets without a forward-looking map is like driving looking in the rearview mirror. Let us help you make better evidence-based decisions based on durable, persistent macro cycles.
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Hey @grok. If Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) charges for commercial banks holding #US Treasuries are completely lifted, will $TLT catch a bid?
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LOGIC Macro Regime retweeted
๐Ÿšจ ๐“๐‡๐„ ๐ƒ๐„๐€๐ƒ๐‹๐˜ ๐ˆ๐๐…๐‹๐€๐“๐ˆ๐Ž๐ ๐ƒ๐Ž๐Ž๐Œ ๐‹๐Ž๐Ž๐! ๐Ÿ”ฅ ๐Ÿ“ˆ Higher inflation โ†’ Higher bond yields โ†’ Central banks forced into yield curve control โ†’ More money printing โ†’ EVEN HIGHER INFLATION! ๐Ÿ’ธ ๐Ÿ” ๐‘๐ข๐ง๐ฌ๐ž. ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐ญ. ๐‘๐ž๐ฉ๐ž๐š๐ญ. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ž ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ฒ ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฌ๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฒ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ž๐ฆ, ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ž ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ฒ ๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ค ๐๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ฒ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ซ๐ž๐ง๐œ๐ฒโ—๏ธ๐Ÿ’ฅ
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LOGIC Macro Regime retweeted
๐ŸชŽ๐Ÿ’ฒFriday was ๐• payday, and a bunch of creators posted how much they actually made. Iโ€™ve been on the search to figure out ๐•โ€™s payout rate so I put all of the data together and tried to make sense of it. ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ’ฐ Average across 8 creators: $0.63 per 1,000 verified impressions. About $0.00063 each verified impression. ๐Ÿ“Š The 8: @kamilbaranek_ $0.46 @dkmitc $0.48 @BTCWealthWar $0.55 @loveleesfinance $0.61 @bigchog $0.63 @Dfw_Ashh $0.75 @BenBusker $0.78 @BitcoinTeacher_ $0.79 ๐Ÿš€ Three came in over $1. To me they were outliers, so I kept them out of the average: @DanielSmidstrup $1.26, @b4dgerr $1.52, @EbiThinks $1.93. I am still trying to figure out why they have such a higher pay rate. More on that below. ๐Ÿ” First thing I checked: does the account itself explain the rate? I pulled followers, account age, total posts and posts per day for all 11. None of them lined up with the rate. The smallest account (1.3K followers) and one of the oldest (2013) both sit at the low end, and the newest account (3 months old) is the highest. ๐Ÿค” So what does move it? Here's what I think is going on: 1๏ธโƒฃ Only verified Home Timeline views of your own original posts count. Replies don't, and views from other places in the app don't either. Two people with the same "verified impressions" can have very different amounts that actually qualify. ๐Ÿ‘‰The number people screenshot isn't the number ๐• pays on. The Verified tab in analytics includes views on your replies. Reply-heavy accounts will look like they got a worse rate when really their denominator is inflated. 2๏ธโƒฃ Timing. A viral post can split across two pay periods (@dkmitc's 1M post did), and small balances roll over until you clear the minimum. Either one makes a single payout look high or low. 3๏ธโƒฃ Who's watching. Under the old program, ๐• said Premium+ views may be worth more than Basic. If that still holds, an audience heavy on Premium+ would earn more per view. Same logic likely applies to where your viewers are. 4๏ธโƒฃ The rate itself moves. @DanielSmidstrup got 4.3% less reach than his last payout and 15.7% more money. Same person, different period, different rate. 5๏ธโƒฃ ๐• doesn't publish a rate and can change the formula. Everything here is self-reported. ๐ŸŽฏ At $0.63, 500K verified impressions works out to about $315. ๐Ÿ’ก What I take from it: if you want a better rate, post more originals that verified people see in their feed. Replies still matter because they send people to your posts, but the posts are what get paid. Thank you to everyone above for sharing publicly. That's how the rest of us figure this out ๐Ÿค What did your payout come out to per 1,000? ๐Ÿ‘‡
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US-China technology-capital controls broaden beyond AI and chips Why it matters: Wider restrictions on US investment in Chinese strategic industries increase capital fragmentation even while the broader tariff truce remains intact. Chinaโ€™s Commerce Ministry responded on October 24 to a US Treasury proposal that would add biotechnology and expand restrictions involving high-performance computing and hypersonic systems. The existing programme already covers selected investments connected to semiconductors, quantum technology and artificial intelligence; Beijing reserved the right to take unspecified countermeasures. Treasuryโ€™s proposal remains subject to consultation, with comments due December 7, so the final scope and effective date are not yet established. reuters.com/world/china/chinโ€ฆ
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US demand remains strong enough to sustain price increases Why it matters: The US entered the fourth quarter with robust demand, worsening supply bottlenecks and greater corporate pricing power, leaving the Fed little reason to relax. The October flash US composite PMI eased from 58.4 to 57.6, but remained at its second-highest level since March 2022. New orders rose to 58.2, their strongest since March 2022, while the output-price index increased to 59.8, its highest since August 2022. Supplier delivery times deteriorated to a four-year low and manufacturing employment reached its highest level since March 2012 as companies expanded capacity. reuters.com/business/us-busiโ€ฆ
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Brent breaks above $114 as supply risks return Why it matters: Renewed disruption around Saudi Arabia, Bab el-Mandeb and regional pipelines is reversing the energy relief that had opened a possible Goldilocks window. Brent reached $114.72 per barrel on October 23, its highest level since May 4, and was heading for a third consecutive weekly gain. Saudi Aramco evacuated its Dhahran headquarters as fighting with Yemen-based Houthis intensified, while a Libyan pipeline closure and an unidentified tanker spill near the UAE added to supply uncertainty. WTI traded above $101, although the crucial variables remain actual lost production, transit volumes and freight costs rather than geopolitical headlines alone. reuters.com/business/energy/โ€ฆ
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LOGIC Macro Regime retweeted
Macro overlays matter. ๐Ÿ‘‡
Is outperforming a diversified portfolio by this wide a margin worth $49.99 US per month? Align with markets and compound. ๐Ÿงญ
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Macro overlays matter. ๐Ÿ‘‡
Is outperforming a diversified portfolio by this wide a margin worth $49.99 US per month? Align with markets and compound. ๐Ÿงญ
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US releases heating oil reserves, but the volume is unlikely to reset prices Why it matters: The reserve exchange may provide regional winter relief, but its limited scale confirms that refined-product scarcity remains unresolved. The Department of Energy authorized an exchange of up to 315,000 barrels from the one-million-barrel Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve, with deliveries scheduled by November 13. Companies must return the fuel plus a premium before the 2027-28 heating season. Diesel remains around $6.32 per gallon after reaching $6.52, and an industry analyst told Reuters the exchange would probably have little effect on prices. reuters.com/business/energy/โ€ฆ
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