25. CFO of anonymous startup. Value & growth investor. Looking to learn more about investing and economics while sharing my ideas. Run concentrated portfolios.
Dallas, TX
Joined February 2021
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I think people really underestimate how essential the U.S. Defense industry is to our geopolitical position. The U.S. Defense companies hold the patents to the best military equipment, but only the geopolitical allies of the U.S. can buy this equipment. 1/n
Leviathan Capital retweeted
Isn't this a fifty percent guidance drop in just a few weeks?
(hat tip a locked account)
Leviathan Capital retweeted
Look, this clown is supposed to be super tech genius talking about space data centers and he can't even use Claude. And you think this will replace every white collar worker on earth?
Gavin Baker owned 15% of Nvidia and 10% of Tesla before either was worth $2 billion. He’s 50. And he just admitted Claude Code was too hard for him, so he switched to Grok Bot.
“I glued together all this stuff with Claude Code and, you know, I’m sure it was user error on my part. 50 years old. I’m doing my best.”
Then he tried Grok Bot.
“Grok Bot is the most impactful AI product to me and to the firm that we’ve had yet.”
“It just makes it so easy. I think I’m up to like 17 Grok Bots, and every day I think of a new one to add.”
And it’s not a toy for him. It’s how he runs money:
“For the more professional use cases, Grok Bot has just been transformative for me.”
“So much of investing is making sure that the right information gets to the right person at the right time, and Grok Bot is so good at that.”
One of the best tech investors alive runs his firm on 17 AI agents. And he’s adding a new one every day.
Leviathan Capital retweeted
I don’t care how you feel about Soros as a person or his politics. He was a genius.
He was a hedgefund philosopher before there were underperforming hedgefunds.
The guy is sitting there in the 80s with rampant insider trading and assets divorced from reality, probably smoking a pipe, explaining not that people are stupid, but WHY they are stupid. How they become that way, how they become more that way, and how their delusion unbecomes.
Imagine having the audacity to say “all of this conventional wisdom - Ben Graham, intrinsic value - this is all wrong and here’s why: you’re holding each others hands.”
The solution is not to avoid the delusion but to feed it. Goddamn it that’s beautiful.
Soros: At some point every bubble will experience the big *test*, where the reflexive feedback loop flips from positive to negative. During the test, the market will try to take out the highly leveraged bulls. You do not want to own the asset during the test.
But if the market fails to push down prices enough to clear out all the bulls, then you have the greenlight to jump back in with even more size than before the test. The failure to clear out the bulls proves the broader trend is incredibility resilient.
After the test, the next phase of the bubble is the acceleration phase where it extends much higher and much longer than anyone expects.
In today's case with AI, perhaps if the market was to learn over the next few weeks/months that AI is resilient to the political cycle, then we could enter the acceleration phase?
Leviathan Capital retweeted
He just called James Talarico, James “Talafreako” and then leaned into attacks calling him a genocide supporter and now he’s begging for him to go on his stream. He’s just a disgusting parasite on the party and needs to stay away
Leviathan Capital retweeted
Your right-wing George Soros, sir
Leviathan Capital retweeted
The S&P 500 is down less than 6% from its all time peak close.
This is not even a bear market yet. (Bear market =20% down...)
Hey - its not even a correction yet. (10% down...)
Leviathan Capital retweeted
I can’t shake the feeling that selling your high-beta tech stocks already down 40-70%, to buy low/no growth consumer names at 30-100x earnings…might not be so smart, either.
Leviathan Capital retweeted
Adam Hamilton is a centrist pastor running in Kansas and only underperformed El-Sayed (running in the most blue-leaning swing state) by 1.5 points. Given the environment and the political tilt of their respective states, the two worst performing Democratic Senate winners were El-Sayed and Troy Jackson
I don't point shit like this out just to make it clear that the left is delusional (although I do enjoy that) but it's just absurd that this Democratic Senate class is actually *more conservative* than the Democratic Senate class it is replacing because of Democratic victories in Kansas, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, and possibly Alaska and Mississippi and yet the left thinks we should defer to them because they gave us our two biggest underperformers in races anyone would have won in this environment
In terms of margin of victory, El-Sayed underperformed every other statewide Democrat who was up for election in Michigan
Leviathan Capital retweeted
Nvidia is now 8% of the S&P 500, double what Cisco was at the top of the dot com bubble, and it's making the EXACT same mistake.
Cisco lent money to the telecoms buying its gear in 2000 because they couldn't pay for it any other way, and when those telecoms went bust, Cisco lost 89% and the S&P 500 lost half its value.
Nvidia is doing the same thing today, guaranteeing its customers' leases and buying stakes in the very companies that buy its chips. The more it sells, the more it's on the hook when those customers can't pay.
THIS IS THE BIGGEST MISALLOCATION OF CAPITAL IN HISTORY
WHY AM I SHORT NVIDIA ???!!!
Nvidia most important stock in the world, and I think its gonna drag the whole market down with it.
Nvidia's buyers are spending far more than they earn, so Nvidia has started bankrolling them itself, and anyone holding an S&P 500 index fund is sitting right on top of that loop.
Jensen Huang went on TV 3 times in a week to tell you his GPUs last 8 years and that the neoclouds borrowing to buy them are a great investment.
When the guy selling the chips starts vouching for the people who can't afford them, it's time to look for the exit.
CoreWeave's own lenders wanted 9% in April and wanted 15.6% in October (probably even more as of now), and the stock is down over 70% from its high, so I'll take their word over his.
Cisco ran the same play in 2000, when it was 4% of the S&P 500, and it went on to lose 89% while the index lost half its value. Nvidia is 8% of the index, and its 5 biggest customers are another 20%.
The day after the midterms the Nasdaq jumped 2% and Nvidia fell 1.9%. Today it’s diving more and everything is following.
When the most important stock in the market sits out a rally like that, you better pay attention.
I'm short, the stock is below its 200-day moving average, and a close under $200 is where I press it.
I've put the whole case into a report, including when I expect this to show up in Nvidia's numbers and the order I think the rest of the market's leaders roll over in.
Read it here:
Leviathan Capital retweeted
$BE Bloom Energy CFO: "The third quarter was another record quarter for Bloom. Revenue of $1.24 billion was up 138% year-over-year, and operating income of $286 million grew faster still, up over 500% year-over-year. On the strength of the quarter, we are raising our full year outlook for revenue, operating income, and EPS for the third time this year."
Leviathan Capital retweeted
Hasan has so little confidence in himself or his abilities that a single man booing him is enough to spook him and derail his speech. It’s been a constant through his whole career, he hides behind the Twitch stream where he can ban detractors because IRL he has no presence.
Leviathan Capital retweeted
Peter Thiel in his lectures talks about how the railroads were an amazing public good, but because there was no monopoly, the railroad building companies kept competing until they tore each other apart, so could not extract the economic value, and they went bankrupt.
It was obvious from the beginning that that was AI.
The big AI companies are screaming doom and safety because they know they are the 21st century railroad companies and know the only way to avoid that fate is a monopoly from government regulation.
It really is that simple.
So I just want to say, sorry frontier labs, u knew what u were getting into, don't hold us hostage. Ur going bankrupt, but thanks so much for what u r doing before u do.
Leviathan Capital retweeted
World seems to have woken up to the idea that AI capex actually needs a return at some point. People now realise that roughly $2-3trn of revenue will be needed annually, quite soon.
But the conversation about what counts as "AI revenue" is still highly unsophisticated. People will say e.g. "Amazon's cloud business is doing really well, ergo AI is seeing great ROI". No. What you need is revenue EXTERNAL or DOWNSTREAM to the system, ie from ordinary businesses subscribing to models. @darioperkins good on this. A lot of Amazon cloud revenue is just Anthropic buying stuff
How much is "proper" AI revenue? In the summer we made four estimates. We need more work to make these estimates better/more accurate! @hsu_steve @lugaricano @weakinstrument
Leviathan Capital retweeted
As I warned about back in January in the Hater’s Guide To Oracle, banks have been getting nervous about Larry for a while. Things only deteriorate from here
US lenders are now hesitant to back further Stargate data centers, and even asian banks are (per TD Cowen) raising the rates for these loans. This is slowing down the construction of the data centers that Oracle needs to make the revenue to pay its debts.
wheresyoured.at/haters-guide…
Leviathan Capital retweeted
The naivety is astounding to me. Like for an evil genius you're pretty fucking retarded if you thought it wouldn't be like this.
Leviathan Capital retweeted
$ORCL MUST BE ALLOWED TO GO BANKRUPT.
Failure is a feature, not a bug, of a properly functioning capitalist system,
Alternatively, it is not allowed in a corrupt system of crony capitalism.
We must try to rebuild the integrity of our thoroughly corrupt markets.
That begins will proper incentives.
Failure must be punished.
That will maximize the efficient allocation of capital.
@elonmusk @GaryMarcus @GordonJohnson19 @tomkeene @Hedgeye_HELS @DougKass @carlquintanilla @Ross__Hendricks @SamKovX @robin_j_brooks @Convertbond @chigrl @edzitron @JG_Nuke @lisaabramowicz1 @LukeGromen @biancoresearch @MarkNeuman18 @MichaelMOTTCM @TgMacro @JuliaLaRoche @maggielake @MarioNawfal @zerohedge
Leviathan Capital retweeted
Larry Ellison and $ORCL investors deserve to get completely wiped out.
That will be for the overall good of our financial system, as it will result in a better allocation of risk capital.
Investors must be penalized for poor choices. The entire system suffers when they are not.
Am I cheering an $ORCL bankruptcy and wipeout of all stock?
Absolutely.
Larry’s use of Enron “Customer Pre-Payment with Significant Interest Component” to hide Operating Cash Flow problems is essentially fraud and should have been banned. It was last used by Enron and a Red Flag.
Force Majeure hasn’t been used by a publicly traded company outside of COVID or Miners/Drillers since Enron. He deserves to lose everything. Every shareholder does.
Shareholders deserve to lose everything in the Ai bubble period. $2.5 Trillion of debt held by Anthropic and OpenAi that is roughly equal to every hyperscaler in the world combined… 7% of National Debt. All Ai debt and liabilities are now 16% of National Debt.
Oracle jobs will be safe in bankruptcy takeover. Shareholders need to lose everything. Pensions need to lose everything.
Leviathan Capital retweeted
Force Manure
Oracle on the hook to pay data centre investors even if site has no electricity ft.trib.al/IeaBT6b
Leviathan Capital retweeted
Am I cheering an $ORCL bankruptcy and wipeout of all stock?
Absolutely.
Larry’s use of Enron “Customer Pre-Payment with Significant Interest Component” to hide Operating Cash Flow problems is essentially fraud and should have been banned. It was last used by Enron and a Red Flag.
Force Majeure hasn’t been used by a publicly traded company outside of COVID or Miners/Drillers since Enron. He deserves to lose everything. Every shareholder does.
Shareholders deserve to lose everything in the Ai bubble period. $2.5 Trillion of debt held by Anthropic and OpenAi that is roughly equal to every hyperscaler in the world combined… 7% of National Debt. All Ai debt and liabilities are now 16% of National Debt.
Oracle jobs will be safe in bankruptcy takeover. Shareholders need to lose everything. Pensions need to lose everything.
