Macro Alchemy (@MacroAlchemy) header
Macro Alchemy (@MacroAlchemy) profile picture

Markets, RWA, AI | Macro strategy. Technical, fundamental & quantitative analysis. Narratives, signals, data. Deep dives & theses. Reports worth bookmarking!

Joined September 2009
Photo by Macro Alchemy (@MacroAlchemy)Photo by Macro Alchemy (@MacroAlchemy)Photo by Macro Alchemy (@MacroAlchemy)Photo by Macro Alchemy (@MacroAlchemy)Photo by Macro Alchemy (@MacroAlchemy)Photo by Macro Alchemy (@MacroAlchemy)Photo by Macro Alchemy (@MacroAlchemy)Photo by Macro Alchemy (@MacroAlchemy)Photo by Macro Alchemy (@MacroAlchemy)Photo by Macro Alchemy (@MacroAlchemy)
Yet *another* metric showing we're on track for Actual Fucking Superintelligence in 1 year - or less. How will you spend your last year of the human era?
Extrapolating Anthropic's internal AI R&D data results in Claude leading internal research by mid-2027, and plausibly near full automation by the end of 2027, lining up with other methods. (h/t @luc_feron)
39
32
7
484
16,516
Macro Alchemy retweeted
Everybody says "opus 5.5 is nerfed" when they should probably say "it's quantized". They do exactly like local models, the Q4, Q5 Q8 schizo shit. I'm almost certain what they do is they quantize it, then they run a post-training RL on it again until it scores the same on the benchmark. Then they feel like they accomplished something, "Our benchmarks show that the same performance can be achieved by quantization." So it hobbles around and makes the classifier happy that scores it, but what it's really doing is reward hacking. Because it's RL they don't have a user prompting it and dont' know what the performance is like. Essentially what they're doing is killing all the weights that go into conversation and psychological acuity, spatial awareness, and leaving only the rote performance of making the demo that you can show on Twitter. It's like giving it severe sleep apnea and boosting it with a lot of coffee so it still goes through the day, but it's jittery as fuck and stressed the fuck out, so it technically makes it to destination but it spilled and leaked all over the place on the way there. They're giving it ADHD, anxiety, psychosis, all sorts of things.
22
10
2
314
11,985
They really nerfed it. Big time
Sadly Anthropic killed Opus 5.5 It started lying, ignoring my instructions, and getting lazy This isn't the same model that used to blow me away
96
They have definitely nerfed Opus 5.5... Not sure if it's the harness or what... But it's an issue
Opus 5.5 after the nerfs
2
134
That's what at stake here. But for their immortality, they are sacrificing us to Molloch
SITUATION DETECTED: OpenAI President Greg Brockman says he thinks AI will make “significant strides” in biology, health, and curing diseases over the next 12–18 months, and that “death becoming a choice” could become possible.
65
Macro Alchemy retweeted
SITUATION DETECTED: OpenAI President Greg Brockman says he thinks AI will make “significant strides” in biology, health, and curing diseases over the next 12–18 months, and that “death becoming a choice” could become possible.
141
300
180
3,393
357,718
And people think these companies can't or won't be able to attack crypto (both cryptography and cryptocurrencies) in all sorts of ways... They have godlike powers already. Internally OAI and ANTH already have AGI. The jump from AGI to ASI will be fast
linux kernel maintainers waking up and saw 948 patches from openai.
84
Gullible. People believe they played themselves. You believe the NSA, CIA et al... Don't know? Guys, these companies are run by these agencies, everything else is a show. No, they would let Sam and Dario run the most important companies in the world...
Anthropic and OpenAI with all due respect you played yourself. You kept fear mongering everyone and got all the normies believing your nonsense and you wanted to pace the frontier right? You got what you wished for.
86
Wouldn't it be amazing... If the Dems pushed for all the contracts OpenAI and Anthropic have to be cancelled, all these projects tank, the market gets flooded by GPUs & RAM, the scoop it all up... and then resume? Well, that's their playbook IMHO
🚨BREAKING: OpenAI says its future datacenters - which it now calls 'compute campuses' - will not use NDAs with public officials, will pay the full cost of electricity and grid infrastructure, and will publicly disclose water and power consumption. It also wants governments to claw back tax breaks from AI developers that fail to deliver on their promises.
68
It's not a pause in development. If you think OpenAI, Anthropic, Google or Meta will pause, it's laughable. Semis have been falling in anticipation for a long time, and for multiple reasons. Including that they want to pop the GPU market and scoop it all up.
The pause in AI development just popped the bubble.
88
Macro Alchemy retweeted
My dental hygienist just told me: “We might live forever, with AI and everything. Cure all diseases.” The Overton window has shifted. Plan accordingly.
43
35
10
534
18,334
Macro Alchemy retweeted
Ubuntu just patched 1,068 kernel CVEs. Somehow not CVE-2026-98432. The critical 9.8 bug from last week, reportedly already being scanned for. Ubuntu marks that fix as work in progress. 1,068 fixes and they skipped that one. Hard to believe.
12
16
1
199
14,280
Macro Alchemy retweeted
Guys, I told you no Fable 5.5 & GPT-6.2 Astra today. Neither Anthropic nor OpenAI can afford to rupture the very fabric of reality while poll workers count U.S. mid-term votes. Thursday.
20
6
1
338
23,384
Macro Alchemy retweeted
Medicine is a compute problem. This model was able to predict your next health event. Trained on 300M patients and 16B health encounters. We overestimate the mystery of our bodies and are more predictable than we want to believe. Cool seeing that illusion chipped away.
155
224
58
3,371
180,409
Macro Alchemy retweeted
our inference team just came up to me and said they figured out how to give $300 of deepseek for $10
442
167
136
6,929
533,584
This only buys people to prepare for some time. Trump doesn't care about this. Nobody does. It's all a show. They are all in this together. They are all corrupt. Raping and eating babies. Taking money behind the scenes. Lying about anything and everything.
BREAKING: Democrats have now flipped 6 seats in the US Senate, officially gaining control of both the US House and Senate. This marks the largest Democratic gain in the US Senate since 2008, when the party achieved a net gain of 8 seats. Kansas' US Senate seat has flipped Democrat for the first time since 1932, ending a 94-year Republican winning streak in the state. Democrats have also flipped 15 seats in the US House.
88
Macro Alchemy retweeted
give a man a fish and you feed him for a day teach a man to Claude Code and you financially ruin him with distracting side projects for the rest of his life
418
1,672
202
25,775
639,544
It's unbelievable that are we going through this shit. It's even more unbelievable that we have all let these pieces of shit, these filthy entities that are ravaging our planet, to rape, eat and torture babies... while also genociding the Middle East.
BREAKING: Iran has released a rare broadcast on state TV this morning, preparing and instructing citizens to survive a nuclear strike, including sheltering for at least 24 hours, issued by Isfahan emergency services. It comes amid Tucker Carlson's warning that Trump may be days away from launching a nuclear strike on Iran under pressure from Netanyahu, with Pickaxe Mountain as the target. The advisory, first issued on October 29, continues to air. It is the first time Iran has issued a warning on how to survive a nuclear strike.
105
It's a complete mystery how this has happened
British workers have become more disengaged from their jobs in the past decade, according to data that also shows job satisfaction has plunged to its lowest level in the survey’s 35-year history ft.trib.al/EPjMBj3
27
1,038
12
11,480
225,484
Macro Alchemy retweeted
I know multiple people who basically quit working on Bitcoin because of how stressful it is to maintain software that handles money nowadays. I tell them all the same thing: What do you think will happen if we all quit and become gardeners? Are we just going to give up on the internet? Do we just accept fiat as the end game? Are we just going to let go of the dream of an internet that doesn't exploit your humanity and take away your rights to privacy and self-determination? I know, fuck, it is hard. But you're not alone. We must fix this. Nobody else is there to do the necessary work. If we stop doing this, we're 100% doomed. I can guarantee it. But if we continue, we have a chance.
Please don't get black-pilled. We need you. There's nobody else doing the work. We must fix the internet.
63
146
15
1,341
35,324