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Så er ugens opdatering fra NewDeal Invest ude.
Som altid går vi igennem ugen, der er gået, med fokus på markederne, teknologi, AI, makroøkonomi og global macro strategy.
Som jeg har set det de seneste par år, er der en kamp mellem forandring og ønsket om at bibeholde det bestående. Lige nu synes jeg, det er meget, meget tydeligt, at forandringskraften har rigtig meget momentum.
Det er enormt vigtigt for os som investorer at forstå.
Mit syn på markedet lige nu er, at vi – selvom markedet er i all-time high – befinder os omkring noget, der på mange måder minder om en markedsbund.
youtu.be/MXb0jdpygV4?si=HpJ_…
Mads Christiansen retweeted
🔥🚨 $ASTS OPENS A BRAND NEW SATELLITE MANUFACTURING HUB IN FLORIDA! 🇺🇸🏭
A major new footprint: a report from Miami Today confirms AST SpaceMobile has established its very first satellite manufacturing operations in Homestead, Florida.
Key takeaways from this new site:
• Expanding Beyond Texas: For the first time, $ASTS is scaling its manufacturing capacity outside its historical base to accelerate BlueBird production.
• Official Spaceport Territory: Leveraging Florida's designated spaceport zone built to attract aerospace and defense leaders.
• Defense Proximity: Operational setup and permitting closely tied with the Homestead Air Reserve Base.
From Texas to Florida: $ASTS is building the multi-facility industrial engine required to power its global Direct-to-Cell network. 🚀
🔗 Source : Miami Today
Economies are different, and monetary policy should reflect those differences. If a central bank genuinely wants to act in its country's best interests, it should theoretically make thoughtful, context-sensitive decisions. But if its mandate effectively discourages independent thinking, that becomes difficult.
Central Bankers need to wake up.
Central bankers’ lack of nuance is increasingly troubling. An economy is not a single, uniform entity. It is a collection of sectors with very different sensitivities to interest rates. Yet monetary policy treats them as though they respond alike.
Today, U.S. growth is being driven largely by two forces: Trump’s America First supply-side policies and the AI investment boom. These are secular forces, not cyclical.
Canada and the European Union lack a comparable AI engine and face mounting deindustrialization. These are fundamentally different economic circumstances, yet their central banks reach for the same blunt prescription.
The US is escaping secular stagnation, Canada and the EU are not!
In all three economies, interest-rate-sensitive sectors bear the brunt. Higher borrowing costs squeeze housing, construction and investment without directly addressing the forces behind headline inflation.
An energy shock is both inflationary, only if one focuses on headline inflation, and damaging to growth. Raising rates into it compounds the economic damage without producing more energy.
The relevant question is whether the initial price shock is spreading into persistent, broadly based inflation. With trimmed inflation measures running around 2%, the evidence for aggressive tightening is weak.
Services inflation remains sticky. But, as the experience of the 1980s illustrates, some inflationary pressures take time to dissipate. Higher rates cannot simply accelerate every adjustment; they can instead deepen the damage while that adjustment unfolds.
Nor is there a single neutral interest rate that leaves every sector in balance. A rate that barely restrains an AI investment boom can be punishing for housing or manufacturing.
Central bankers need to distinguish between supply shocks and excess demand, between booming sectors and struggling ones, and between persistent inflation and slow-moving adjustment. Applying the same prescription to fundamentally different economies is no substitute for analysis.
Mads Christiansen retweeted
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
This is the kind of rare event you’d hang a picture of on the wall. The West Texas oil shipment was not only unusual—it took two months of travel.
West Texas to south east Australia!
Do not be fooled by the shape of he maps. This is three times the distance from Houston to Europe!
Map from @Kpler
Mads Christiansen retweeted
🇨🇦It is not Canada that has been humiliated. It is Ursula von der Leyen.
Here is why:
EU member states — led by Germany, followed by France, Greece, and Italy — rejected the term “associate member” because it has no basis in the European treaties, carries no legal definition, and was unilaterally introduced by Ursula von der Leyen in her State of the Union address, without any prior consultation with the national governments.
Von der Leyen must be removed from office. Two thousand years of European civilization deserve better than this.
🚨 BREAKING: EU countries have dropped the idea of offering Canada "associate member" status in the 27-member bloc, opting instead for softer language promising "ever closer association," according to a draft statement, seen by POLITICO.
Full story: vist.ly/5qd4s
Mads Christiansen retweeted
To the uninitiated, this man was Minister of Climate, energy and utilities in Denmark from 2019 - 2022 where he did everything he could possibly do to put us in this situation, including halting all existing oil and gas exploration, as well as cancelling all future licensing rounds for oil and gas exploration in th North Sea. It's hard to find a worse person to navigate us through this winter.
Mads Christiansen retweeted
For my English-speaking followers, let's get the facts straight about the Stubb–Støre call with Putin.
New reporting from Finland provides important details missing from much of the international debate. Some of the initial accusations now look rather premature.
First, why did the call happen?
According to President Stubb, Ukraine's peace negotiations were close to collapsing last week, with relations between Kyiv and Washington in serious trouble. Finnish sources suggest there was even a risk of the US disengaging from the process.
At Zelenskyy's request, Finland and Norway organised the Oslo talks with American negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, alongside other European representatives.
The subsequent call to Putin was prepared with Ukraine and the US. According to Finnish sources, key allies were informed beforehand and briefed afterwards. Helsinki also wanted Ukraine to publicly confirm its support for the initiative.
Zelenskyy has since explicitly defended the call and praised its transparency.
Second, the controversy surrounding European coordination deserves clarification.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen accused Finland and Norway of acting independently and failing to coordinate with other European countries.
But Stubb and Støre have both stated that allies were informed in advance and received detailed briefings afterwards. New reporting from Finnish news agency STT supports their account.
There is an important distinction between not being informed, not being consulted on the decision, and fundamentally disagreeing with that decision.
Frederiksen's criticism increasingly appears to reflect a disagreement over whether direct contact with Putin should happen at all, rather than simply a lack of notification. Her initial framing therefore risks creating a misleading impression of an uncoordinated diplomatic operation.
Political disagreement should not be confused with evidence that Finland and Norway acted behind their allies' backs.
Third, what actually happened during the call?
Finnish broadcaster Yle and news agency STT have challenged the Financial Times' account of Putin delivering a lengthy history lecture to passive Nordic listeners.
Their sources describe a substantive exchange in which Stubb and Støre questioned Putin about the upcoming Abu Dhabi negotiations and stressed that prolonging the war would not diminish European support for Ukraine.
Freedom of navigation in the Baltic Sea, keeping maritime routes open and Russia's shadow fleet were also discussed.
Finnish-Russian bilateral relations reportedly were not discussed at all. The parties agreed to keep the communication channel available.
Fourth, the risks were understood from the beginning.
Finnish sources say criticism and possible Russian propaganda exploitation were anticipated. One source described the initiative as values-based realism, which sometimes requires accepting political risks and their consequences.
This was a calculated decision, not an improvised attempt to normalise relations with Moscow.
Zelenskyy has also reminded critics that Putin's diplomatic isolation effectively ended with Trump's Alaska summit in 2025. Other European governments have maintained contacts with Russia, sometimes without comparable transparency towards Ukraine.
Ukraine requested diplomatic assistance, and Finland and Norway responded in coordination with Kyiv and Washington.
Supporting Ukraine for as long as necessary must also mean supporting it in the ways Ukraine actually asks for. That includes diplomacy.
Europe needs military strength, economic pressure and diplomatic influence. These are complementary instruments, not competing alternatives.
Mads Christiansen retweeted
Legacy media will never run this list, so I will.
2018, Flint, Michigan: Elon funded filtration systems for schools with unsafe water. Over $480K.
2018, Thailand: SpaceX engineers built a mini-submarine within days to help rescue a boys' soccer team trapped in a flooded cave.
2020, COVID: He sourced and delivered ventilators and supplies to hospitals for free.
2021: He gave Tesla shares worth about $5.7 billion to charity.
2021: He funded a $100M XPRIZE for carbon removal, one of the largest incentive prizes ever.
2022: Starlink kept Ukrainians connected when their networks went down.
2022, Tonga: Starlink helped reconnect the island after a volcano cut its undersea cable.
Wildfires, hurricanes, earthquakes: Starlink terminals keep showing up for rescuers and families.
And the biggest one, the one that's easy to miss: he's spent his fortune and 20+ years building clean energy, safer cars, and a future for humanity among the stars.
They call him a villain. The record says otherwise.
Mads Christiansen retweeted
The same gas costs $2.70 in 🇺🇸 Louisiana and $31 in 🇳🇱 Rotterdam.
That’s 11 times more!
In 2025 the gap was $8.
Somebody keeps the $28. The company that pumps the gas sees almost none of it.
Oil found a way around Hormuz.
Middle East crude exports are back above pre-war levels, through the pipelines to Fujairah in the 🇦🇪 UAE and Yanbu in 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia.
Gas has no such escape.
🇶🇦 Qatar has shipped 68% less LNG this year.
So Europe enters winter short:
🇪🇺 EU storage 75% full, against a 90% norm
🇩🇪 Germany 62%
🇬🇧 UK 41%
Withdrawals started on 21 October, 3 weeks earlier than last year.
A cold snap hits Paris and Munich next week.
I found 2 names still priced as if none of this happened.
1 is a floating liquefaction company with a direct lever on the gas price from 2027 and no analyst has modelled it.
The other is a producer paid on Gulf Coast prices instead of Henry Hub.
My new article has 10 sections, covering every link of the chain with the company on it.
Do not miss it.
Link: themerchantsnews.substack.co…
Mads Christiansen retweeted
Oracle $ORCL is projecting a nearly $54B turnaround in annual free cash flow over 3 years
Now expects to turn FCF positive in the H2 of FY28 & generate at least $30B in FY29
Expects its massive AI data center spending to peak in FY27-FY28 before declining in FY29
By FY29, Oracle says its growth will be self-funded.
Oracle $ORCL targets $225B+ in annual revenue by FY2030.
Key financial targets:
• FY27 revenue: $90B+
• FY30 revenue: $225B+
• Revenue growth: 35%+ CAGR through FY30
• FY30 non-GAAP operating margin: 40%+
• FY30 non-GAAP EPS: $21+
• Positive free cash flow: 2H FY28
• FY29 free cash flow: $30B+
• CapEx to peak in FY27-FY28
• Growth to become self-funded in FY29
• FY29 net debt/EBITDA: Below 3.5x
Oracle also plans to limit additional capital raises through FY30 to $20B:
• $10B in equity
• $10B in debt
This excludes debt refinancing and is separate from the $20B equity raise already completed in Q1 FY27.
Mads Christiansen retweeted
.@SecretaryWright: “The plan is to take 15 reactors at 8 different locations and uprate them. Meaning the plant behind me would get another 150MW of power output...
Significantly more energy, puts downward pressure on rates, allows more manufacturing, more jobs to be created."
Mads Christiansen retweeted
Europe’s dependence on SpaceX and Musk is not a regulatory problem. It is an industrial & technological one. Europe needs greater ambition, a long-term strategy & public institutions as customers for European space companies. You cannot regulate sovereignty. You have to build it.
Europe is working on several plans to break the dominance of tech billionaire Elon Musk’s satellite communications service, Starlink.
The moves come as the world's richest man expands his grip on space.
🔗 vist.ly/5q5zi
Mads Christiansen retweeted
🔥WOW… HISTORIC ELON GAME CHANGER IN BRAZIL.
Elon just turned on Starlink Mobile with Vivo the day after Lula’s “win.”
50 million Brazilians can now get signal in dead zones. 7 million phones already connected. First nationwide satellite-to-phone service covering the entire country.
Elon knows EXACTLY what he is doing & is building free speech infrastructure.
“Free speech is the bedrock of democracy… if people don’t know the truth, how can you make an informed vote?” - Elon Musk
They banned X in 2024. Moraes froze Starlink accounts and tried to cut the pipes. Starlink is harder to kill than regular cell towers local ISPs can block X fast… satellite requires forcing the company itself.
Now every compatible Vivo phone has a fallback path through space for messaging and more. Rural areas… Amazon… highways places towers never fully reach.
Mads Christiansen retweeted
As I reported hours ago, Flávio Bolsonaro has arrived safely in United States.
The mastermind behind this operation is U.S. Secretary of State @SecRubio .
From the United States, free and safe, Flávio will lead the opposition against Lula.
Mads Christiansen retweeted
Massive fleet of test Cybercabs prepping for the Cybercab release in Dallas 😳
Mads Christiansen retweeted
Most surprising line in the S-1:
“Anthropic's revenue from Fortune 500 customers paying $100K+ a year averaged under 0.1% of those customers' total expenses in the September 2026 quarter. Over half the Fortune 500 is in that group.”
Absolutely wild given ~$75b in revenue.
Worth a thought
Mads Christiansen retweeted
Remember when all those innumerate AI bear clowns who are always on TV told us that frontier AI model companies were terrible cash burning, money losing businesses and awful business models?
They were wrong, just as they've been wrong about every AI bear prediction they've made over the last three years.
Hi Ed.
The most mind blowing stat we've seen so far is this:
"As of June 30, 2026, we had raised an aggregate of $141.1 billion of capital and had cash and cash equivalents of $112.4 billion and short-term investments of $19.3 billion."
That means to date, they have burned 9.7b, they are growing at a rapid pace, and are profitable on an operating income basis as of the June quarter! This is likely the most efficient scaling of a business in the history of capitalism.
teapaw.org/AnthropicAI/status/211…







































