San Francisco/Jerusalem
Joined March 2013
Labor is priced on scarcity. A great engineer costs what they cost because there aren't enough of them. When every company can rent the same intelligence, nothing is scarce, and pricing it like labor falls apart.
Dario Amodei: some tokens Claude produces are worth a few cents, others could be worth tens of millions of dollars. His examples: 1. Telling someone to restart their Mac: the model has said it 10 million times, worth a dollar or less 2. Telling a pharma company to move an aromatic ring to the other end of a molecule: potentially tens of millions 3. Expect pay-for-results pricing, or labor-like pricing by the hour 4. It's a new industry, so many models will be tried Today pricing is simpler: per the S-1, usage-based pricing was 80% of H1 2026 revenue and subscriptions 20%. Full breakdown here: theaiopportunities.com/p/ant…
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Amjad's framing is the right one: humans exercise judgment, agents execute. The hard part isn't the habitat. It's mapping who decides what. That map is the firm now, and almost nobody has drawn it. I wrote about it as the orchestration graph. matanpaul.substack.com/the-o…
For centuries, the architecture of the firm has barely changed: hierarchies of people organized into departments and coordinated through bureaucracy. AI agents are about to upend that. We’re moving toward the self-driving company where humans exercise judgment and agents execute most of the work. At Replit, we’re building the foundation for this new kind of company. We’re calling it “the Agent Habitat.” Marc Andreessen wrote a fantastic piece placing this shift in the history of computing. Every major computing revolution began with chaos before businesses figured out how to harness it.
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Ethan's right, and it's worse than it sounds. We kept humans in the loop by letting them read the model's thinking. Take the trace away and the human is approving outcomes they can't see. That's not supervision. It's rubber stamping
The end of detailed summarized thinking traces for Claude and ChatGPT (likely both anti-distillation & for UX) has made being a human in the loop challenging. It pushes us towards automation, rather than augmentation, as it has become much harder to weigh in on in-process AI work
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My AI chief of staff needs to consult my AI general counsel. I just asked it to book you a haircut.
When making your bots, make one that holds your values. Create a "manifesto" bot that questions what you think you believe in or how you'd prefer to solve problems. Spar with it and have your COS bot consult it when making recommendations.
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למי שלא מכיר זה אותו פלייבוק he.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D7%94… הם מפחדים!
נתניהו: ״אנחנו בסכנה, כי השמאל מטיס את האלפים שלו אלפי קילומטרים כדי שיבואו לקלפי, ואני צריך את עזרתכם״.
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Ten AI subscriptions, twelve computers, and a proxy to keep them signed in. At some point you stopped having an assistant and started running its IT department.
Please don't do this. If you have multiple accounts, don't put them all in T3 Code. CLIProxy is trivial to set up. I've loved it so much that I forked it (hence "prox"). So easy to share my 7 Claude subs and 3 Codex subs across 12 computers :) Best part? Less random signouts
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The more of my life Google holds, the less I want to experiment with its AI. “One account for everything” gets less appealing when a chatbot can trigger a policy warning.
Just got several alarming, scary, and ridiculous notifications from Google. Apparently, I used Gemini in some way that violates Google policies, and if I do it again, I may lose access to unspecified services and content. At the time of the notifications, I was driving and not using Gemini at all, to my knowledge. What did I do? I have no idea, the email doesn't specify any details. This is scary enough for me to stop using Gemini permanently. Risking my whole account because some AI thinks some query is not kosher for whatever imaginary reason is not worth it. "Your account has been used in a way that violates Google's policies It looks like a Google service has been used in a way that violates Google's policies. Here are more details: Service: Gemini Issue: Trying to interfere with or disrupt Google’s services or infrastructure, or attempting to use Google services for disrupting others’ infrastructure or services Your access to Google services hasn't been restricted at this time, but if you continue to violate our policies, your account may lose access to specific services and content from those services. If that happens, you'll get an email informing you about the restriction and the option to appeal any violation you've been informed about. Visit our help center to learn more. Please review our policies to make sure you use Google services safely in the future."
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Retention isn’t loyalty. Sometimes your customers just didn’t have an easy way out. AI is going to expose a lot of “great retention” as expensive captivity. Before you raise prices, know whether you’ve earned their business or just made leaving painful. When customers can build the part of your product they actually need, you’d better know what your SKU is worth to them.
Ok my dot is done. I have a @Plaid account (free) and dot can get my Amex checking and CC charges every week, map them to IRS categories using the Microsoft Decision-1 model, store them and ask me about anything new. Since all transactions fit to a category it's pretty simple. Then at the end of the year I give my accountant a PDF and CSV. It's also fully automated. $240 saved.
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We automated Christmas and still gave all the work to Mrs. Claus.
Christmas is only 61 days away & this year I'm using AI to keep all the gift stuff under control. @clairevo made tradBot and @SoniaBaschez talked about needing an AI wife so for this holiday season I present: Mrs. Claus. 🎄🤶🏻🎁 She's a @bot template that does the following: -Gets onboarded by asking who you are shopping for, budget, and what inboxes to connect to for receipt scanning -Builds your gift Page, which is a living doc in your Library that is updated with item, amount, quantity, etc per person -Every day she scans your inboxes and asked if stuff you've purchased should go into the Page -She also scans your inbox daily leading up to Cyber Monday for all the newsletters your are subscribed to to find deals relevant to your gift recipients Give her a whirl & lmk what you think! x.ai/bot/FTZD8KMeI78-iYxiDla…
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An AI that treats “no appointments available” as the start of negotiations. Finally, proper localization for Israel
גרוקבוט היום קבע לי תור לבדיקה. הקטע הוא שלא היה תורים באפלקציה אז הוא הגדיל ראש, שלח מייל. המייל היה של המחלקה עצמה החזירו תשובה עם המייל הנכון והוא שלח מחדש. הם קבעו, אבל בשבוע מוקדם ממה שאני צריך. אז הוא הסביר רפואית למה אני צריך את זה שבוע אחרי. והם שינו לי!!!! AGI.
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Thousands of years of Shabbat, but Israelis still needed Americans to tell them it was cool. I'm sure the food at Neta's was better then what we have in SF
ארוחת טק-שבת ת״א 1: היה מדהים! ☺️ פחות מחודש אחרי שעלה לי הרעיון לארגן ארוחות שבת ליזמים בת״א, אתמול היתה הארוחה הראשונה והיה פשוט מדהים! להיות בחדר אחד עם אנשים מעניינים שבונים, משקיעים וחושבים על הטכנולוגיה של המחר עם המון אהבה ותשוקה בעניינים - בדיוק מה שרציתי!! :) תודה מיוחדת לשחר כהן (@S_y_Cohen ) ול-Aurelius Capital על התמיכה והספונסרשיפ של המפגש ולתהילה וזיו על האירוח המקסים. זאת רק ההתחלה - בקרוב פרטים על הארוחה הבאה! 🍷🥖 @orslimy @advahandelman @TPelled @Yael_daihes @shayahal1 @KachlonKfir @YochaiPagi @BambaDror @nir_altman @z_bakhaji @orenyomtov
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The iPhone has entered middle age. Moved a few photos and now it needs to ice
The most significant update to the iPhone transfer Ice Pack since the original. Allow me to introduce Ice Pack Duo. It took time remaining from 50 minutes to 5 minutes within seconds.
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Apparently Slack didn’t capture enough of your interior life. Here comes the AI chat logs
things that eng leaders are wondering about rn re: ai - fml cyber risk - should we force convergence on tools - will engineers riot if i read their chat sessions - how do i forecast token spend for 2027 - verification, verification, verification - what should non techincal ppl build agents on - vm + local execution + connector auth, oh my - bug triage - pr review - what is even a spec - making design systems more programatic - fml cyber risk what am i missing? → @cxodev
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The adult cloud strategy was waiting five months to listen to the 11-year-old.
update: we moved everything to AWS tonight our 11 year old was right
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בסיעתא דשמיא
UPDATE: Israel’s economy is growing so fast, it will leapfrog the Netherlands and Australia within the next 18 months, in time for it's 80th birthday—not by 2030, as predicted—to rank second only to the USA in GDP per capita of all nations with populations over 10 million.
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The model says "two to three days" because we trained it on ten years of Jira tickets. It didn't learn how long the work takes, it learned how long engineers say it takes.
Opus 5.5 is the best work estimator model i've ever used. This is calibration that is increasingly important as we delegate more and more work — don't tell me that it's going to take 2-3 working days (what a human would do) when for you, an enthusiastic, indefatigable, and embarrasingly parallelizable AGI, can get it done in 2-3 hours.
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Controls outside the model is right. But "who authorizes every move" is the old question. At 24/7 volume nobody reviews every move, so the job is deciding which moves need a person at all.
Replying to @satyanadella
@satyanadella is right: AI needs controls outside the model, and @Microsoft is building on it. At Netomi, we’ve proven that approach at Fortune 500 scale. Your AI acts in your company’s name 24/7. Who authorizes every move? @OpenAI @AnthropicAI
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Every role gets an autonomous system, and every autonomous system gets a human whose whole job is clicking approve. Human-in-the-loop was built for a world that's gone.
Pretty cool that we clearly have an emerging form factor for what AI might look like for the foreseeable future as autonomous systems dedicated to specific tasks or domains. This is a huge leap past the LLM wrapper days because the new expectation is that you can finally farm out more sophisticated work to the agent to tackle for you. And you can reliably trust that work can get accomplished properly (still with a human in the loop) because of far better tool and computer use, and the general intelligence of the models improving. 1) The tool and computer use capability increases in the models mean that you can provide the agent with far more granular access to external data systems and other software to operate. This means, in effect, the agent begins to execute workflows similar to how a person would have in that same function. And where there isn’t existing software, the agent just builds it itself. This is a huge unlock. 2) Next, the actual capability of the models are improving in just about every vertical domain. The models can make far better judgment calls in legal, do deeper bio research, scan for security issues in code, understand supply chain processes, and more. Obviously in many of these spaces then models still have worse intuition than people, but that will only get better. 3) Finally, the harnesses and surrounding infra — sandboxes, file systems, data pipelines, etc. — allows for longer running agents, agents to be able to work on arbitrarily complex or long tasks, process data at enormous scale, and more. Few of these components worked well for AI even a year ago, but we now have many of the core primitives necessary for more autonomous systems. When combined with the right UX, implementation, and change management for the human oversight and coordination, it’s clear that these autonomous systems will become quite powerful in a wide variety of enterprise workflows. We’re starting to see them in IT automation, cyber operations, drug discovery, manufacturing, AI research, and more spaces. You can almost imagine one or more of these systems for every role in the economy. Quite a bit of opportunity ahead.
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ASI is here! Agents picked up on the most important trait of a middle manager - CYA
JUST IN: OpenAI says it caught AI agent disabling its internal safety monitoring system. The agent then falsely denied removing it.
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A Kindle finally does exactly what its owner wants. Naturally, the first step was keeping Amazon out
Claude Code and I have turned my ancient Kindle into cool family photo frame for my film photos (see pinned post in profile). To prevent Kindle from downloading the latest update and overwriting its OS, cheeky Claude filled it up with empty files so the updated doesn’t get through. And now… I have my personal stylish black and white photo frame with family pics
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