Some important weather concerns are developing for next week, but the impacts will vary a lot. The Southern Plains and Four Corners are probably the biggest areas to watch. Winter wheat planting is underway with serious soil moisture deficits. Topsoil is rated short to very short across 89% of Texas, 88% of Oklahoma, 66% of Kansas, and 81% of Colorado. Extreme to exceptional drought also remains across portions of the central and western High Plains. Now, a potentially wetter pattern is starting to show up. A slow-moving system will develop near the Four Corners early next week. There’s also the possibility that moisture from Hurricane Polo hitting Mexico gets pulled north into this system. That could bring several days of rain and storms to parts of the Four Corners and western Plains. For winter wheat, meaningful rainfall would be welcome. The problem is placement. Some of the driest areas farther south could still miss the better moisture, while heavier rain becomes focused farther west or north. The situation is almost reversed across the Upper Midwest and western Corn Belt. Parts of the region remain drought-stressed, but southern Minnesota, eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois have recently been very wet. Iowa’s corn and soybean harvest is already running behind schedule after repeated rainfall and limited fieldwork. Another round of moderate to heavy rain may spread from the Plains into the Upper Midwest and Mississippi Valley early to midweek. If that falls on the already-wet areas, harvest delays and crop-quality concerns could increase. To watch: A slower Four Corners system could focus more beneficial rain over drought-stricken areas of the Southwest and western Plains. A faster-moving system could push precipitation east sooner, potentially adding rain to areas where harvest is already struggling with wet fields. @MattMakens

The odds of a potentially historic El Niño continue to increase. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its September ENSO update today, and El Niño continues to strengthen across the tropical Pacific. Current data support a 75% chance that this event will become the strongest on the modern record. Last month, that probability was 69%. That’s significant, but there’s an important distinction. A historically strong El Niño does NOT automatically mean historically heavy snow, extreme cold, or any other specific outcome where you live. Stronger El Niño events generally increase confidence in some of the typical El Niño impacts, but they don’t guarantee them. The PDO, location of the warmest Pacific water, atmospheric circulation and other parts of the pattern will all matter as we get closer to winter. So today’s update strengthens the case for an exceptional El Niño. It does not settle the winter forecast. Our @mattmakens and @talkingaglane recently sat down to discuss the winter forecast in the latest Cattlemen's Call Podcast, and a regional weather outlook is coming to you soon in the Fall Directions magazine. #ElNino #ENSO #WinterWeather #Weather #Winter2026