Data scientist @datarobot. Co-founder https://teapaw.org/t.co/PUN0SMh4ya and @analysisevolved. @mattyanselmo.bsky.social #rstats he/him
Seattle, WA
Joined April 2012
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Continued some research on measuring how well individual soccer players play defense. Last time it was in open-play phases, and this time I tried to allocate defensive value on set piece plays:
americansocceranalysis.com/h…
Matthias Kullowatz retweeted
Excited to announce our partnership with @MNUFC
americansocceranalysis.com/h…
Matthias Kullowatz retweeted
Today, the Players are proud to announce the creation of the Om Arvind Gift in honor of the life & legacy of soccer journalist and women’s soccer advocate Om Arvind.
Read more at ⬇️
nwslplayers.com/news/nwsl-pl…
If you are actually looking for metrics to complement xGD in team predictions, consider other flavors of EPV metrics. Something like the average of the maximum EPV in each possession, or the average starting EPV of each possession.
Mostly I want to make the point that xG and EPV type metrics are doing the same thing/ using a similar framework (goal probability) just at a different level of accounting. It’s why that 2008 @soccermetrics post imagines “an expected goal value” broadly defined (not just shots)
I was able to explain nearly 90% of the difference between xGD and g+Diff (i.e. R2 = 0.9) with these two things:
1. How much passing value is lost to imaginary receivers on incomplete passes.
2. That g+ is built on a two-possession outlook, rather than just current possession.
hey @AnalysisEvolved, remind me what would be the major sources of difference above or below this trend line for team g+ diff vs xGD?
Each dribble/pass turnover hands EPV over to the other team via interrupting g+ right? Is it just the mix of dead ball vs open play turnovers?
Matthias Kullowatz retweeted
It's that time of the year! Here is ASA's NWSL g+ Best XI! Read more about how and why g+ loves these players from @KierDoyle.
americansocceranalysis.com/h…
Matthias Kullowatz retweeted
A new year means a new playoff format . With a bigger emphasis on penalties this season, knowing which clubs have the best takers could be more important than ever. @etmckinley has you covered.
americansocceranalysis.com/h…
Matthias Kullowatz retweeted
Decision Day is nearly here!
@MattyAnselmo simulated MLS playoff outcome probabilities based on the new playoff format & the strength of teams, as measured by both team-level metrics and player-level metrics according to the best combined lineup of each team's last two games.
Matthias Kullowatz retweeted
Tomorrow is the big day. Before the World Cup starts, @EvanDavisSports wrote about the the best NWSL players to never make a World Cup roster.
americansocceranalysis.com/h…
Matthias Kullowatz retweeted
And here are the five worst teams in the final third, according to goals added from @AnalysisEvolved. Atlanta United is the surprise team for me here! #InterMiamiCF #NYCFC #TFCLive #ForTheCrown #RCTID #HoldItDown #CFMTL #cf97 #wearethea #DTID
Matthias Kullowatz retweeted
𝑻𝒉𝒂𝒏𝒌 𝒚𝒐𝒖!
All of our subscription revenue from June is headed to TOPSoccer, a program for children with disabilities!
We raised enough money to help purchase new equipment for local TOPSoccer clubs.
Read more ⤵️
backheeled.com/thank-you-for…
Matthias Kullowatz retweeted
We have two exciting articles today. First, @etmckinley's annual "State of MLS Analytics Tier List". More info here:
americansocceranalysis.com/h…
And, The 2023 MLS Analytics Survey, in which an anonymous survey was sent to the analytics staff of MLS clubs:
americansocceranalysis.com/h…
Matthias Kullowatz retweeted
Holy cow. @Harrison_Crow posted this 10 years ago today, and it holds up pretty dang well! 🍰
americansocceranalysis.wordp…
Matthias Kullowatz retweeted
🚨 New R package alert! 🚨
I’m over the moon to share that nwslR is back and better than before. The goal is to make #NWSL stats and information accessible to fans and analysts of the league.
Check it out: github.com/nwslR/nwslR
ALT nwslR hex logo. It is a navy blue hexagon with red trim. In the center is a white silhouette of a player with a ponytail lining up to strike the ball. The word "nwslR" is above their head.
Matthias Kullowatz retweeted
NWSL action starts up tomorrow, which means I'm back to posting xG Race Plots and Pass Networks after each game. This season, I'll also be frequently updating #nwslR data. Some brief explanations below, as well as some updates I made in the offseason.
Matthias Kullowatz retweeted
Are shots from free kicks useless or good? @etmckinley revisited an old topic with new data. americansocceranalysis.com/h…
Matthias Kullowatz retweeted
Doing some WoSo freelancing for ESPN.
On Laura Harvey's tactics and how they made OL Reign the best defensive side in the NWSL last season (and how they're looking early in 2023):
espn.com/soccer/blog-tactics…
Matthias Kullowatz retweeted
Nobody works harder than @joeclowery and team at providing independent soccer coverage of every pro league in the US, plus the USMNT/WNT/YNT.
Consider subscribing if you can to support @Backheeled, and enjoy their content all through the 2023 seasons.
If you want to read the best independent soccer coverage, subscribe to Backheeled.
You’ll get access to every article on the U.S. national teams, MLS, the NWSL, USL, youth prospects, and more.
Subscribe today.
backheeled.com/#/portal/sign…
Do they even care how many times I’ve had to change the MLS playoff simulation code.
MLS is considering big changes to its playoff format, sources tell me and @samstejskal.
The changes would more than double the number of postseason matches.
One potential avenue? A shift to a World Cup-style competition with four groups of four teams.
theathletic.com/3730955/2022…
