Drifter

Gm Folks We are back! This is another edition of the Predict Alpha Report, our bi-monthly collaboration with @CoinsiliumGroup tracking the rise of prediction markets, event-driven finance, and the growing role of AI agents within it. Each edition focuses on the signals that matter, from capital flows and fundraising activity to regulatory shifts and product innovation. As information is increasingly priced in real time by both humans and machines, the Predict Alpha Report will track where these signals lead. But first, let’s get this part out of the way: Always DYOR: This bulletin is for informational purposes only and contains summaries of news articles originally published by third-party media outlets. Please refer to the full disclaimer at the end of the post. Now, let’s get started. Here are the highlights: 💸 Capital Signals 👉$1.4 Billion Linked To Election Day 👉Inflation Futures 👉Predictive Labs’ Nijinn Brings Cross-Market Intelligence to the US Midterms 📈 Industry Pulse 👉Swaps Include Prediction Markets 👉The First To.. 👉Prediction Markets 🤝 Stablecoins 👉Kalshi on Phantom 👉Bitcoin-Backed Trades 💸 Capital Signals 💰$1.4 Billion Linked To Election Day According to CNN, trading on prediction markets linked to the 2026 US midterm elections has surpassed $1.4 billion. @Kalshi leads with nearly $1.1 billion in trading volume, while @Polymarket has recorded more than $340 million across its US and international platforms. People are betting on everything from election winners and voter turnout to candidate endorsements, debates, and campaign speeches. The growth comes as US regulations become more favourable toward election betting, encouraging existing platforms to expand and new players to enter the market. PredictIt and ForecastEx are seeing increased activity, while UK-based @Smarkets is seeking approval to launch in the US. Beyond betting, these markets are increasingly observed as indicators of public expectations and how traders assess the likelihood of different outcomes. Trading is expected to pick up even more, as Election Day approaches. 💰 Inflation Futures Kalshi plans to launch futures contracts tied to US inflation in December. The new products will track the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, and core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices. Kalshi has brought in former Barclays trader Michael Ashton to help design the contracts and attract major banks, hedge funds and asset managers. The opportunity is significant, with the US inflation market including $2.2 trillion in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and more than $5.4 trillion in inflation swaps. Unlike Kalshi’s existing contracts that pay out based on whether an event happens, these futures would allow investors to trade changes in inflation expectations more directly and manage their exposure over time. Kalshi hopes that offering standardised inflation contracts with fixed expiration dates and nearly round-the-clock trading will make the market more accessible, particularly for investors who currently rely on complex private agreements to trade inflation. While Kalshi has already built a large business around sports and event-based trading, attracting institutional investors would open up a very different source of growth. And rounding up this section: 💰Predictive Labs’ Nijinn Brings Cross-Market Intelligence to the US Midterms With the US midterm elections approaching, @nijinn_official's dedicated midterms platform brings prediction-market data into focus across Senate, House, and governor races. Developed by @Predictive_Labs, it combines Polymarket and Kalshi order-book data through Nijinn’s TruthIndex™ to produce a single liquidity-weighted probability for each outcome, while highlighting where the two venues’ probabilities diverge. The platform offers an early preview of Nijinn Pro’s cross-venue analytics, with shareable graphics and live embeds helping journalists bring the data to their readers. Predictive Labs reports that it has shared the site with close to 1,000 US journalists and plans to extend the format to other major elections and sporting events, broadening Nijinn’s reach through timely, relevant applications. Predictive Labs will exhibit at Web Summit Lisbon on 9–12 November 2026, with founder @johann_evrard showcasing Nijinn alongside leading figures in AI and blockchain. 📌 FYI: Predictive Labs is backed by Gibraltar-based venture builder, Coinsilium Group. Coinsilium’s shares are traded on the Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market in London, under the ticker symbol "COIN", and on the OTCQB Venture Market in the United States under the ticker symbol "CINGF". But it’s not just capital flowing into the space. Keep reading for the latest signals in regulation, adoption, and structure. 📈 Industry Pulse ⚡️Swaps Include Prediction Markets The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has proposed new rules that would formally classify prediction market contracts tied to sports, politics, culture, and weather as swaps, a type of financial contract whose value depends on an underlying asset or event. The proposal aims to clarify that prediction markets operating on federally registered exchanges fall under the CFTC’s authority rather than individual state gambling regulators. The distinction matters for platforms like Kalshi, which have faced legal challenges as they expand across the US. If adopted, the proposal could give federally regulated prediction markets greater legal certainty and make it harder for states to restrict their operations. ⚡️ The First To... The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved Cboe Global Markets’ proposal to introduce contracts that let investors trade on specific company performance metrics rather than just share prices. @RobinhoodApp is expected to become the first retail brokerage to offer these products, covering more than 100 metrics across 23 companies. These include NVIDIA’s data-center revenue, Apple’s iPhone sales revenue, and Robinhood’s number of funded customers. The contracts work as binary options, allowing traders to take positions on whether a company will meet a particular performance target. For Robinhood, this adds another product to its growing range of options, futures, and prediction markets, potentially creating a new source of trading revenue. ⚡️Prediction Markets 🤝 Stablecoins @Underdog has partnered with crypto infrastructure provider @zerohashx to let users fund their prediction market and fantasy sports accounts using stablecoins and other digital assets. Announced at the NEXTPredict NYC Summit, the new feature is expected to launch later in 2026 for eligible users and will sit alongside existing payment options within the Underdog app. The main benefit is speed. Unlike traditional bank transfers, which can face delays during evenings and weekends, stablecoin payments can be processed around the clock, allowing users to add funds to their accounts in near real time. Zerohash will handle the underlying crypto infrastructure, so users won’t need to manage complicated wallet addresses or blockchain networks themselves. ⚡️Kalshi on Phantom Crypto wallet provider @Phantom is bringing Kalshi’s prediction markets directly into its app, allowing millions of US crypto users to trade on real-world events without leaving their wallets. The rollout began on October 23, and access will expand over the coming weeks. Users will need to complete identity verification through Kalshi and can fund trades using Phantom’s dollar-pegged CASH stablecoin. Funds are converted into traditional currency for settlement, while winnings and withdrawals return to users’ Phantom Cash accounts. Trading fees are set at $0.02 per contract, plus a small network fee. The integration gives Kalshi access to Phantom’s existing crypto user base while making regulated prediction markets more accessible to people already familiar with digital assets. At the same time, ⚡️Bitcoin-Backed Trades @Kalshi is expanding its crypto offerings through a new partnership with digital asset custodian @BitGo, allowing eligible institutional clients to borrow against their cryptocurrency holdings to fund leveraged futures trades. Through Kalshi Prime, customers will be able to use Bitcoin, Ethereum, and selected stablecoins held at BitGo as collateral for loans, rather than selling their crypto to raise cash. The borrowed funds can then be used to support margin positions on Kalshi’s trading platform, allowing investors to take larger positions with less upfront cash, although this also increases their exposure to potential losses. Kalshi plans to add more crypto custodians to the network in the coming months, giving clients greater flexibility in how they fund their trades. The partnership marks another step in Kalshi’s efforts to move beyond event-based prediction markets and compete in the broader derivatives trading industry. And that’s it! Long read, but if you enjoyed this, set a reminder in your calendar for the next edition of the Predict Alpha Report. Thanks to Coinsilium, we’ll be dropping these updates every other Monday, i.e., twice a month. Till then, Thank you for being a part of the When Shift Happens family. Full Disclaimer All rights to the original content belong to the respective publishers. We do not claim ownership of any third-party material and provide proper attribution, including source links, for transparency and reference. While we strive for accuracy in our summaries, we make no warranties or guarantees regarding the completeness or accuracy of the information provided. Any mention of cryptocurrency, financial products, public company stocks, or other investment instruments in this newsletter or the referenced articles is not intended as financial advice or a recommendation to invest. The information is not tailored to any individual’s circumstances and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Readers are encouraged to consult the original articles and seek independent financial, legal, or professional advice before making any investment. The author(s) of this report may hold, directly or indirectly, positions in the securities or digital assets (including shares or tokens) of the company(ies) or project(s) mentioned herein. Any such holdings are disclosed for transparency and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument.