I share deep dives on traders and strategies
Joined October 2022
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Three years ago I published the Qullamaggie deep dive research bundle
@TheShortBear called it the best thing since Tim Grittanis work was shared
With the help of AI I've now made it into an interactive app
Let me know if you want a discount code 👇
Qullamaggie turned a $250,000 trade into a $50,000 trade by being complacent
He still made about $300,000 on it..
GME, one of Qullamaggie's best breakouts, came when the weekly chart was not trending up.
"Only buy when the weekly agrees" is one of the most repeated rules in trading.
17 of his 50 best breakouts came with the weekly not trending up.
Validate everything.
I am from Norway and I love America, but your President called Norway a shit hole.
Life in "shit hole" Norway:
🇳🇴 Paid parental leave: 49 weeks v. 🇺🇸 0
🇳🇴 Paid vacation by law: 5 weeks v. 🇺🇸 0
🇳🇴 Homicide rate: 0.5 per 100k v. 🇺🇸 5.7
🇳🇴 Democracy Index: 1st v. 🇺🇸 28th
🇳🇴 Least corrupt: 5th v. 🇺🇸 28th
🇳🇴 Human Development: 2nd v. 🇺🇸 17th
Brutal place.
PS: 89% of new cars sold are electric
🇳🇴 Democracy rank: 1st v. 🇺🇸 28th ("flawed democracy")
🇳🇴 Rule of Law: 2nd v. 🇺🇸 26th
🇳🇴 Election confidence: top tier v. 🇺🇸 43rd
🇳🇴 Corruption index: 4th v. 🇺🇸 29th
🇳🇴 Press freedom: 1st (10 yrs running) v. 🇺🇸 64th (behind Sierra Leone)
🇳🇴 Incarceration rate: 54 per 100k v. 🇺🇸 542 per 100k (10x higher)
🇳🇴 Total prisoners: 3,030 v. 🇺🇸 1.83 million (#1 on Earth)
🇳🇴 Recidivism rate: 20% v. 🇺🇸 68% re-arrested
🇳🇴 Order & security rank: 1st globally v. 🇺🇸 epidemic gun violence
🇳🇴 Prison cells: 1 per inmate v. 🇺🇸 overcrowded
🇳🇴 Paid parental leave: 49–59 weeks mandated v. 🇺🇸 0 weeks
🇳🇴 Maternal mortality: <3 per 100k v. 🇺🇸 18.6 (50.3 for Black mothers)
🇳🇴 Child mortality: 2.4 per 1,000 v. 🇺🇸 6.5
🇳🇴 Child poverty: <5% v. 🇺🇸 >20%
🇳🇴 Gender equality: 3rd v. 🇺🇸 43rd
🇳🇴 Teen birth rate: 9 per 1k v. 🇺🇸 38
🇳🇴 Clean electricity: 98% renewable (hydro/wind) v. 🇺🇸 fossil-dependent grid
🇳🇴 Power balance: 18 TWh clean surplus
🇳🇴 Environmental rank: top 10 (69.2) v. 🇺🇸 27th (58.5) 🇳🇴 Oil revenues: saved in a $2T public wealth fund v. 🇺🇸 $40.4T national debt ($120k/citizen)
🇳🇴 Healthy life expectancy score: 0.983 v. 🇺🇸 0.678 🇳🇴 Freedom to make life choices: 1.092 v. 🇺🇸 0.776 🇳🇴 Youth happiness: thriving top 10 v. 🇺🇸 50-place collapse for under-30s
🇳🇴 Inequality loss to HDI: minimal v. 🇺🇸 11.3% wiped out
🇳🇴 Household debt: buffered v. 🇺🇸 $105k avg
James Muninn retweeted
📢WEEKEND STUDY RESULTS ARE IN!
Qullamaggie's tightest stops had the fewest winners.
His tightest charts had the most.
Not really surprising. What surprised me was how clear the difference was, and how it affected the avg. R
Winrate based on how wide the stop was:
Tightest: 17% ended green. Widest: 28%.
Winrate based on how wide the 10 days before the buy were, high to low, compared with how much the stock usually moves in a day.
Tightest: 28% ended green. Loosest: 17%.
A loose chart with a tight stop: 9% ended green. A tight chart with a wide stop: 32%.
Resulting avg. R?
Tightest chart: +1.90R per trade
Widest chart: +0.67R per trade
No wonder @Qullamaggie says:
"Wide and loose is for losers, tight is for winners."
📝Study work this weekend: Qullamaggie's tightest stops had the fewest winners. Did his tightest charts?
WHY
"You want tightness before a breakout, not like loose action."
Earlier this week I split the breakout buys he showed on his streams into thirds by how far the stop was under the buy.
Selling on the first close under the 10-day moving average, the tightest third ended with 17% winners. The widest, 28%.
So the tight stop was the worst. This makes sense.
But how important is it to have a tight chart? According to Qullamaggie it's very important.
THE STUDY (2 to 3 hours)
1. Open 30 breakout entries in date order. Not the pretty ones - there are many, trust me.
2. Scroll the chart so the day before the buy is the last candle. Look only at the 10 days up to it. Write down the highest high and the lowest low.
3. Turn that into a range in %, then divide it by the stock's ADR (its average daily range over the 20 days before).
4. Sort the 30 by that number and split them in three: tight, middle, loose. Then scroll forward to the exits and mark the winners.
5. Count the winners in each third. Then look at his stop on each one: were the tight charts also the tight stops?
WHAT I'M AFTER
Two win rates: the tightest third and the loosest. If a tight chart works like a tight stop, the tight charts should come out worst again.
If you want to change your life with trading, you have to stay away from groupthink.
It's not intelect. It's not discipline. It's not emotional robustness.
It's your ability to think for yourself.
Militia Capital's founder David Orr (@orrdavid) on the PM trait that signals groupthink:
"If a guy is looking for outside affirmation, like he's looking for someone to tell him that, oh yeah, what you're doing is the right thing, that's a kind of tell of groupthink."
"And people who do this tend to not perform well."
"In hindsight with my mentor, now I can tell he was testing me. He'd try to push back in these ways that were very rigid. Like, no, this is wrong. You can't do this this way."
"And I was just always thinking, I'm going to do it my way. I don't really care what you think, when I was sure."
"He's saying that nobody has been able to do it the way I've done it, for example. But that doesn't mean it's wrong. You gotta ask, well, why has nobody done it?"
James Muninn retweeted
Yesterday I told everyone who had already purchased the original Qullamaggie Deep Dive that they had full access to the app..
Feedback has been good🫡🙏
Very excited for the upcoming updates!
Three years ago I published the Qullamaggie deep dive research bundle
@TheShortBear called it the best thing since Tim Grittanis work was shared
With the help of AI I've now made it into an interactive app
Let me know if you want a discount code 👇
📢WEEKEND STUDY RESULTS ARE IN!
Qullamaggie's tightest stops had the fewest winners.
His tightest charts had the most.
Not really surprising. What surprised me was how clear the difference was, and how it affected the avg. R
Winrate based on how wide the stop was:
Tightest: 17% ended green. Widest: 28%.
Winrate based on how wide the 10 days before the buy were, high to low, compared with how much the stock usually moves in a day.
Tightest: 28% ended green. Loosest: 17%.
A loose chart with a tight stop: 9% ended green. A tight chart with a wide stop: 32%.
Resulting avg. R?
Tightest chart: +1.90R per trade
Widest chart: +0.67R per trade
No wonder @Qullamaggie says:
"Wide and loose is for losers, tight is for winners."
📝Study work this weekend: Qullamaggie's tightest stops had the fewest winners. Did his tightest charts?
WHY
"You want tightness before a breakout, not like loose action."
Earlier this week I split the breakout buys he showed on his streams into thirds by how far the stop was under the buy.
Selling on the first close under the 10-day moving average, the tightest third ended with 17% winners. The widest, 28%.
So the tight stop was the worst. This makes sense.
But how important is it to have a tight chart? According to Qullamaggie it's very important.
THE STUDY (2 to 3 hours)
1. Open 30 breakout entries in date order. Not the pretty ones - there are many, trust me.
2. Scroll the chart so the day before the buy is the last candle. Look only at the 10 days up to it. Write down the highest high and the lowest low.
3. Turn that into a range in %, then divide it by the stock's ADR (its average daily range over the 20 days before).
4. Sort the 30 by that number and split them in three: tight, middle, loose. Then scroll forward to the exits and mark the winners.
5. Count the winners in each third. Then look at his stop on each one: were the tight charts also the tight stops?
WHAT I'M AFTER
Two win rates: the tightest third and the loosest. If a tight chart works like a tight stop, the tight charts should come out worst again.
Qullamaggie says you can't manage your emotions in trading.
"I think people who think you should manage your emotions, I think they're full of shit."
What he does instead:
app.qullamaggiedeepdive.com/…
Yesterday I told everyone who had already purchased the original Qullamaggie Deep Dive that they had full access to the app..
Feedback has been good🫡🙏
Very excited for the upcoming updates!
Three years ago I published the Qullamaggie deep dive research bundle
@TheShortBear called it the best thing since Tim Grittanis work was shared
With the help of AI I've now made it into an interactive app
Let me know if you want a discount code 👇
James Muninn retweeted
This week alone I've tested 9 of fintwits' finest traders' rules on real trades.
@ShakePryzby1, half off at +4R: fewer round trips, lower average
xitter.cf/Muninn/status/21122287…
@jfsrev, three stops: less drawdown, less profit
xitter.cf/Muninn/status/21125793…
@RossHaber, 2nd close under the 20-day: longer holds, nothing extra
xitter.cf/Muninn/status/21128714…
@Wordsofrizdom, weekly trend: didn't help
xitter.cf/Muninn/status/21129249…
@ohiain, breakeven at +3R: a wash
xitter.cf/Muninn/status/21130355…
@TMLitalia, no buys with T2108 under 30: held up
xitter.cf/Muninn/status/21125237…
@PradeepBonde, skip 20%+ run-ups into earnings: held up
xitter.cf/Muninn/status/21133000…
@InvestorsLive, wait 15 min on parabolic shorts: under half the stop-outs
xitter.cf/Muninn/status/21135922…
@RealSimpleAriel, don't chase the open: right, except the biggest winner
xitter.cf/Muninn/status/21129938…
Verify everything.
In the next update of app.qullamaggiedeepdive.com I will be introducing a new research-desk. Cant' wait to share.
Always study. Always look for edge.
@jfsrev has so many brilliant ideas and adaptions.
It's not only about bagging those big winners, but also about cutting our losses (smaller).
Jeff says that "If your win rate is below 40%, your top priority should be reducing your losses further."
I tested it on Qullamaggie's breakout trades. It reduces the drawdown by almost a third, but gives up some profits..
88% of Qullamaggie's breakout buys were above the 30-week average.
@NickSchmidt says one thing he learned from Stan Weinstein "is you never buy a stock under the 30-week."
The ones bought under it: 19% winners, against 25% above.
Something I learned from Stan Weinstein is you never buy a stock under the 30-week.
A stock below the 30-week is dangerous.
All of memory is now below the 30-week besides $MU, which will not be able to diverge from its group for long.
This week alone I've tested 9 of fintwits' finest traders' rules on real trades.
@ShakePryzby1, half off at +4R: fewer round trips, lower average
xitter.cf/Muninn/status/21122287…
@jfsrev, three stops: less drawdown, less profit
xitter.cf/Muninn/status/21125793…
@RossHaber, 2nd close under the 20-day: longer holds, nothing extra
xitter.cf/Muninn/status/21128714…
@Wordsofrizdom, weekly trend: didn't help
xitter.cf/Muninn/status/21129249…
@ohiain, breakeven at +3R: a wash
xitter.cf/Muninn/status/21130355…
@TMLitalia, no buys with T2108 under 30: held up
xitter.cf/Muninn/status/21125237…
@PradeepBonde, skip 20%+ run-ups into earnings: held up
xitter.cf/Muninn/status/21133000…
@InvestorsLive, wait 15 min on parabolic shorts: under half the stop-outs
xitter.cf/Muninn/status/21135922…
@RealSimpleAriel, don't chase the open: right, except the biggest winner
xitter.cf/Muninn/status/21129938…
Verify everything.
In the next update of app.qullamaggiedeepdive.com I will be introducing a new research-desk. Cant' wait to share.
Always study. Always look for edge.
@jfsrev has so many brilliant ideas and adaptions.
It's not only about bagging those big winners, but also about cutting our losses (smaller).
Jeff says that "If your win rate is below 40%, your top priority should be reducing your losses further."
I tested it on Qullamaggie's breakout trades. It reduces the drawdown by almost a third, but gives up some profits..
📝Study work this weekend: Qullamaggie's tightest stops had the fewest winners. Did his tightest charts?
WHY
"You want tightness before a breakout, not like loose action."
Earlier this week I split the breakout buys he showed on his streams into thirds by how far the stop was under the buy.
Selling on the first close under the 10-day moving average, the tightest third ended with 17% winners. The widest, 28%.
So the tight stop was the worst. This makes sense.
But how important is it to have a tight chart? According to Qullamaggie it's very important.
THE STUDY (2 to 3 hours)
1. Open 30 breakout entries in date order. Not the pretty ones - there are many, trust me.
2. Scroll the chart so the day before the buy is the last candle. Look only at the 10 days up to it. Write down the highest high and the lowest low.
3. Turn that into a range in %, then divide it by the stock's ADR (its average daily range over the 20 days before).
4. Sort the 30 by that number and split them in three: tight, middle, loose. Then scroll forward to the exits and mark the winners.
5. Count the winners in each third. Then look at his stop on each one: were the tight charts also the tight stops?
WHAT I'M AFTER
Two win rates: the tightest third and the loosest. If a tight chart works like a tight stop, the tight charts should come out worst again.
About 56% of the breakouts that got 1R in the trade's favour still ended at a loss..
I used to babysit my trades, and was always bothered when I gave back gains.. don't do that. It happens more often than not.
Is X a toxic place with broke larpers, or is there actual value to be had?
app.qullamaggiedeepdive.com/…
Parabolic shorts in liquid stocks is probably the biggest edge we as retail traders can have.
Qullamaggie learned shorting small caps from @timothysykes and @InvestorsLive
But small caps are a lot more difficult to trade than the more liquid parabolics.
For example: waiting out the first 15 minutes cut the stop-outs on parabolic shorts in liquid names by more than half. The stop got more than twice as wide..
Similar concept can be found in small caps: @InvestorsLive on what to look for: "Traps pre market and tops within first 15-30 min before fading off all day."
In larger cap this translates to:
1-minute range: stopped out 58.5%, stop 3.5% away
15-minute range: stopped out 22.6%, stop 8.5% away
Even if we trade one basket of stocks, we can learn a lot from others..
James Muninn retweeted
Every model book trade looks obvious once you know how it ended.
So I built a simulator based on Market Wizard Kristjan Qullamaggie. 1,300+ of his real trades, each frozen where he decided.
You make the call, then you see what he did.
The best part of building it has been the messages.
One trader wrote that it "forces you to make decisions on borderline setups." That is the whole reason it exists. A surprising number of his trades aren't pretty.
Also available for parabolic shorts and EPs📈