Nice stat from @POLITICOEurope UK tech newsletter this morning: "Whitehall departments made £16 billion in day-to-day savings last year, according to the Treasury. It credited AI with efficiencies in the NHS and in schools."

There is a well-meaning argument at the heart of this piece by the excellent @RyanShorthouse, but I’d respectfully disagree with almost all of it, because it misreads how politics and power really operate. Politics doesn’t happen in a vacuum, and a policy that can’t be explained and sold to the public is a policy that won’t survive. A good media SpAd helps a minister tell a moral story about their decisions, policies and actions, building and maintaining the public (and political) support that is critical if ideas are to become reality. Floating policy ideas ahead of time matters too, because it is how government tests what is possible, hears the objections early and avoids costly mistakes further down the line. Far from confusing the public, it gives them a say before decisions are locked in and gives government the chance to change course. Background briefings and off-the-record conversations are vital to understanding how government really works, and they are one of the main ways wrongdoing and corruption come to light. Close them down and you end up protecting the powerful rather than the public. To suggest journalists don’t hold government to account is simply wrong (so many examples available). As for the claim that the media is stifling, strong governments manage it by staying ruthlessly focused on voters, while weak ones end up speaking only to the media. Abolishing media SpAds wouldn’t remove the politics either, it would simply push it somewhere less visible. Good government needs good communication, and getting rid of the people who provide it won’t make our politics any better. This wonk utopia reminds me of the many hours I’ve spent in rooms with policy teams and think tanks advisers whose brilliant ideas end up damaging a politician because they don't think enough (or at all) about how that should be communicated and their ideas land badly with the people who matter most - the voters.

I also think it may just simply be: treasury advice will be clear that we are already at the revenue maximising rate for CGT

Seems like pretty normal Budget discipline at HMT to me - weird to brief it like this!

Fun doing 5Live live from a conference balcony (good people watching spot) with @MattChorley @NationJames @PME_Politics and @Dannythefink

The real terms value of the NLW has gone up 42% since its inception. Productivity has gone up 9% over the same period. Load on employer NICs, workplace pension contributions, and the ERA and public policy has been rationing employment opportunities. By all means defend the NLW at 66% of median earnings (albeit the “bite” has significant regional distortions), but recognise that cumulative labour market policy, from successive govts, has led to ULC rising at the fastest rate in the G7 - with clear evidence of a passthrough to consumer price inflation.

Who caught the dream team on @TimesRadio last night? @StraightTie | @NationJames

Earning £100k does not make you “rich”, especially if you’re a single-earner family. The tax trap penalises work and Labour should address it on those grounds. arguably.uk/p/britain-cant-a…

Healey set to delay difficult choices with ‘breathing space’ UK Budget ft.trib.al/uZaisan

New: Andy Burnham claims he will NOT have to raise taxes to pay for his social care policy and says it could be delayed Asked by @BethRigby if he’ll raise taxes to pay for it, the PM says: “No, because there's a different way of doing it. If you delay the date of introduction and you introduce a national care service progressively” The PM’s remarks defy economists who think he’ll have to raise taxes because his changes to the triple lock won’t raise enough money. They will be watched closely by bond investors His comments also walk back his interview with @bbclaurak at the weekend when he suggested tax rises were on the table to pay for social care The suggestion of a delay raises big questions about exactly what the policy will be, when it will be implemented, who will benefit, how it will be paid for and whether it’s affordable. All that is unknown right now

Another political headache coming down the track: fuel duty. Reeves extended the freeze to the end of the calendar year. Backdrop of the January price cap will be a challenging one.

The big risk here is that all of the OBR’s boost comes in the target year for the fiscal rules: 2029/30. In other areas, the fact that 29/30 is the third year is marginally helpful (e.g. higher yields likely to be their most costly at the end of the forecast period) but not here.

Pre-Budget Speculation: Mapping The Mansion Tax Thanks to @NationJames for his great insights as ever into what might appear in the Budget and the political calculations around an early general election. knightfrank.co.uk/research/a…

Would Andy Burnham call an early election? Deputy Editor of The House Magazine, Sienna Rodgers, says it's unpalatable, but perhaps beneficial to the new Prime Minister. The latest episode of Whitehall Sources is available now: youtu.be/2BtfXbF-FFI @CalumAM | @nationjames | @siennamarla

The public finance rejoinder is that borrowing on the main fiscal rule is £4.8bn above forecast after 5mths as higher inflation drives up spending (by more than strong tax receipts). Devco bonds are not gilt issuance but the fiscal backdrop does not help bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

EXCLUSIVE 🗞️- Britain’s economic watchdog, the OBR, is concerned that it may have to revise down the boost to GDP it had attached to Labour’s flagship planning reforms and 1.5 million new homes target. The OBR has invited housing market experts in for meetings in a bid to “understand why the housing market is underperforming” so badly. This will be a blow to the government and signals the state of our housing market amid worsening economic headwinds including inflation and higher mortgage rates which, in their defence, are neither Labour’s fault nor entirely within their control. It also raised questions about the OBR’s initial forecast which experts have told me was optimistic at best. My report @theipaper inews.co.uk/news/hidden-cost…