Figuring out how everything fits together.
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Joined December 2024
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Still Learning retweeted
📊 Maine Early Vote: Through 10/26.
@MaineDems continue to lead early voting 8 days out:
- 98k returns, +24% vs. the same point in 2022
-GOP are also ahead of their 2022 pace (+19% to 42k) but remain well behind.
- Overall early returns are running +29% vs last midterm.
If this early-vote lead holds, GOP would need to win Election Day by roughly 59%–41% (~70–75k vote margin) to overcome the current Dem advantage, assuming typical midterm turnout and unenrolled voters leaning ~55% Democratic.
Still Learning retweeted
If there is a Blue Tsunami, we'll look back at these early votes in Nevada as a huge indicator, much like they were for Trump in 2024
xitter.cf/umichvoter/status/2114…
Still Learning retweeted
🚨GOP SENATE MAJORITY IN SERIOUS DANGER.
Nate Silver gives Democrats a 75% chance of taking the Senate.
🔵 NC: Cooper +10
🔵 GA: Ossoff +8
🔵 TX: Talarico +2
🔵 MI: El-Sayed +2
🔵 IA: Turek +2
🔵 AK: Peltola +1.6
Election Night could become a Senate wipeout for the GOP.
#VOTE
🤖 Made with AI
Still Learning retweeted
GA early vote numbers are historically bad for the GOP compared to 2022 and 2024. The margin on in-person EV now sits at D+10.9 on modeled party (D+11.2 with mail). This up from D+10.2 before the weekend. I changed the map color scale to show the margins a little better #gapol
Still Learning retweeted
🚨 KANSAS IS CRUSHING IT
🔵 Democrats: 73,503 (47.7%)
🔴 Republicans: 60,253 (39.1%)
⚪ Independents/Other: 20,318 (13.2%)
🔵 Democratic margin: D+8.6
Compared with the same point in 2024, Kansas early voting is 4.0 points bluer.
Still Learning retweeted
Guys…
I've been asked about early voting analysis.
The dilemma I have is that my platform is big enough such that being too blunt can have an effect on morale. I'll push out new states and tools out to my website soon, but won't announce them here on 𝕏.
I will be giving @realJeremyCarl my predictions a week in advance so he can hold me accountable after Election Day.
You MUST turn out and bring their friends, and brace yourself on election night. Even TX is going to be a fight.
Still Learning retweeted
Republicans in Texas simply not showing up…
Statewide early vote so far:
🔵Dem 35% (+2)
🔴Rep 33%
2022 at same point:
🔵Dem 29%
🔴Rep 42% (+13)
Still Learning retweeted
“I’m just stunned…at the degree to which Republicans are in trouble.”
- Larry Sabato, after reviewing both public and private polls and at minimum foreseeing a blue wave.
Still Learning retweeted
GOP Texas State Rep. Dade Phelan on why top Republicans are breaking with the party in the Senate race between Ken Paxon and James Talarico: “The fact that you're hearing very prominent, lifelong Republicans… actually endorsing and voting for the Democrat is pretty telling.”
Still Learning retweeted
Walking the line outside the Trump rally in Corinth, I was reminded that more unites us than divides us here in Mississippi. I heard from folks who want to get foreign money out of our elections, put an end to flock cameras, keep our border secure, and make sure our veterans are taken care of.
Thank you to everyone who took the time to talk with me and share what matters most to them. When I’m elected to the U.S. Senate, I’ll represent every Mississippian — whether you voted for me or not. That’s what the job is all about. #MississippiMatters
Still Learning retweeted
We warned President Trump and the MAGA Congress against passing the Big Betrayal Bill, knowing it would hurt hospitals in every part of our state.
A new report shows Washington's hospitals will lose $6 billion due to their Medicaid cuts. That is devastating to our healthcare system.
washingtonstatestandard.com/…
Still Learning retweeted
Annie Andrews on Trump's recent comments regarding her: "If calling me names will lower our gas prices and our grocery prices and keep our rural hospitals open, he can call me all the names that he wants. But that's not going to get the job done. And comments about taking my medical license away from the man who doesn't know how to pronounce 'acetaminophen.' I'm not going to take that seriously."
Still Learning retweeted
BREAKING: Judge Reyes has issued a preliminary injunction over the golf course and begins with this:
"Rarely, if ever, has the United States Department of Justice urged a federal court not to believe the sitting President."
ecf.dcd.uscourts.gov/cgi-bin…
Still Learning retweeted
Noon TargetEarly data has dropped. Surge of young, Black, and Hispanic voters in the 2026 election has not abated. 1/
