@NolaAnalytics

Analysis on Pelicans and Saints (and a hint of Alabama) mostly from a stats/math/analytics background

Joined August 2012
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Here are the top 25 teams by power rating based on Vegas Point spreads heading into the season: For teams in the AP Poll not power rated in top 25: Illinois ranked 12, Power Rated 31 Indiana ranked 20, PR 30 Iowa St ranked 22, PR 28 Boise St ranked 25, PR 39
On3
@On311 Aug 2025
BREAKING: Preseason College Football AP Poll🚨 on3.com/news/preseason-ap-po…
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In every sport, you’ll get reports of teams keeping bad coaches/GMs(/QBs) because they look down upon teams who are constantly making changes. But the changes are inevitable until you find the right pieces so liberally move on from the wrong answers till you find the right ones.
NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics12h
Mickey and co got fooled into believing that continuity is key when continuity is a lagging indicator. You have continuity because you have a good coach/QB/etc and get good results. You don’t get good results by keeping people who are mediocre/bad at their job.
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Mickey and co got fooled into believing that continuity is key when continuity is a lagging indicator. You have continuity because you have a good coach/QB/etc and get good results. You don’t get good results by keeping people who are mediocre/bad at their job.
Grant@gp895713h
Replying to @gp8957
This idea Mickey Loomis keeps trying to pitch to us: where everybody just needs to be “patient” so that your coach can grow into a job he’s going to have for 10 to 15 years just isn’t rooted in reality. It just shows how out of touch he has truly become.
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It’s clear the Saints thought of themselves as a model franchise with Brees and Payton and did not consider the possibility that they were good because Brees and Payton were good, not because they provided organizational stability. The Jets could’ve had continuity with those two
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It didn’t work out this way, but an added benefit is that you guarantee you’ll get a chance on offense with plenty of time and all your timeouts. A punt can easily lead to 3-4+ minutes + timeouts being taken off the clock by Green Bay.
Seth Walder@SethWalder16h
Solid go on 4th down. This one will be second guessed because of where they are on the field. But value of possession is very high and conversion chance is high on a 4th-and-1. Remember: punts are turnovers ~100% of the time.
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No I don't think Gayle was in there interviewing NBA GM candidates. It's been pretty well reported that she just hired her friend.
B Wag@504WiggleOct 25
Replying to @NolaAnalytics
“Gayle Benson hired” do you think Gayle was in there interviewing NBA GM candidates? What questions do you think she was asking. Pelicans weren’t going to pay top dollar, they aren’t going to pay lux tax, Dumars might have been the only guy that was willing to take the job
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In some ways, I feel like it’s talked about a ton, and in other ways, I feel like it’s still not talked about that in the year of our Lord 2025, Gayle Benson hired JOE DUMARS, the worst exec in the NBA in 2014, and he immediately ran the a bad franchise further into the ground.
NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalyticsOct 25
Real people spent real time and energy defending/getting excited about Gayle Benson hiring Joe Dumars. And in a world where the Pelicans are probably the most miserable American professional sports franchise, it’s nice to at least be able to laugh at that.
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It feels deserving of an addendum to every Pels tweet. “Bey with a couple nice boards tonight. The Pelicans are still run by Joe Dumars who was inexplicably hired and immediately traded a pick that was potentially Cam Boozer to move up 10 spots from 23.”
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Real people spent real time and energy defending/getting excited about Gayle Benson hiring Joe Dumars. And in a world where the Pelicans are probably the most miserable American professional sports franchise, it’s nice to at least be able to laugh at that.
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I very much enjoyed watching college football tonight, and I will enjoy sleeping in tomorrow morning. As long as Gayle Benson is going to allow her franchises to be run by the worst front offices in each sport, it’s clear they do not care in the slightest about being serious.
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Kicking the field goal on 1st down with over a minute left down 10 is the fakest sharp move out there. People think they’re being shrewd by saving time, but they’re giving up their chance to win in regulation and now need a TD from significantly further away.
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Gave up their best shot at a TD to need a Hail Mary on the last play. Until you get down under 20 seconds, you are not being sharp: you’re just punting on your best shot at a TD
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Have a feeling we're going to look back in a few years and ask why the guy with the best analytical freshman season ever was considered a tier 2 draft prospect.
Real App
@realappOct 24
Cam Boozer is the 3rd youngest player in NBA history to record a 25/10/5 game. Only LeBron & Flagg were younger.
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Anything can happen, but there has been one instance in 12 years of a team with a better record and better strength of record being left out of the playoff for someone else, and it was an ACC team (2023 Florida State) being left out for a then-B12 team (2023 Texas).
Shehan Jeyarajah
@ShehanJeyarajahOct 22
They’re going to use this to lock the ACC and Big 12 out of major nonconference games, and then use “weak nonconference” as justification to put 18 Big Ten and SEC teams into the 24-team playoff.
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NBA "Did We Really Get Beat That Bad?" for games on Wednesday, October 21:
NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalyticsOct 21
Stealing a bit from @statsowar with a "Did We Really Get Beat That Bad?" for NBA. Essentially, how did you play if both teams shot the ball a league average % from 3?* *This is not a "did you deserve to win?" metric.
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"How Did We Win" for yesterday's games:
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This is a strawman for a number of reasons (firstly because choosing 49% over 51% is still dumb), but a big piece is that basically no one is coming after coaches for kicking when the recommendation is to go for it to raise your win probability by 0.1%.
katsu
@katsuxbtOct 20
Kyle Shanahan says a 51% analytics recommendation won’t convince him to go for it because he gets one shot, not an hour at a blackjack table “I don’t want to hear about it if it’s 51% of the time we should go for it.” “As I always say, I’m not sitting here playing Blackjack for an hour with no one else at the table, and eventually I’ll get 51% of it. Like, I have this one try, and I have a feel for it. I’ve been doing it too long.” “But what I want to know from him, when it’s not a feel, when it, no, this is 98%. We don’t even need to talk about it. So we don’t need to talk about it. Tell me when it’s that, and I’ll just do it.”
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Almost no one was criticizing Kellen Moore for punting on 4th and 11 in the 2nd quarter of the Falcons game even though it was technically slightly positive EV to go for it. But people did slam Moore for kicking on 4th and 3 in the 3rd which cost them 3.5% win probability.
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Stealing a bit from @statsowar with a "Did We Really Get Beat That Bad?" for NBA. Essentially, how did you play if both teams shot the ball a league average % from 3?* *This is not a "did you deserve to win?" metric.
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A simple breakdown of how each game was won: -Points gained from 3-point shotmaking over average -Points gained from opponents 3-point shotmissing over average -Points gained from the rest of the game
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I made a Power Rankings for everyone mad at Ben and anyone else who makes predictive power ratings. These are basically just "record (and point differential) but with recent games weighted slightly more heavily"
Computer Cowboy
@benbbaldwinOct 21
WEEK 6 OBJECTIVE NFL POWER RANKINGS -- The Rams fell!! But narrowly on top. Sorry,,, -- Ok yes the Chargers are bad -- Goodbye Eagles -- Here come the Texans!
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These are completely reactionary rather than predictive which aren't what power rankings should be, but this does seem to be what the people want.
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