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Joined August 2009
SaaS New Entrant Radar 26th October 2026 | By Octopus Competitive Intelligence Agency octopusintelligence.com/saas…
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Octopus Intelligence retweeted
Hannah Schmitz is Red Bull's head of race strategy. Data and simulations stream in. She has seconds to call it. Her words: "At the end of the day, it's a strategy call, and we'll make the final call." The machine informs. The call stays human.
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Beware of “the chart is clear” statements. Read the analysis yourself.
🚨 RSI analysis: Is this take-off, or iterative optimisation hitting a wall? The chart is clear. Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index scores place the top models in a tight band. Scores sit between 52 and 58. Below them a second cluster runs from the mid-40s down to 42. Kimi-3.1 just released sits near the top of the first cluster and ahead of the best OpenAI model on the list. New releases continue. The rate has flattened. This is the data that is supposed to support a recursive self-improvement story. What it shows is ordinary iterative optimisation under a known ceiling. [ How can we tell the difference ] Do we have growth? Yes. Absolute scores still rise. Next is the rate of growth. Is the change from 5 to 6 (+1) or from 5 to 50 (×10)? The first is linear improvement under diminishing returns. The second is the exponential or super-exponential movement required for genuine recursive self-improvement. Current releases show the first pattern. Models move a few points. They do not open a new regime. The clusters stay tight. [ The ceiling is visible ] Top models improve, but the rate of growth has flattened. Many models show little to no headway between them. The index does not display runaway separation. It displays a set of systems converging on similar performance. Note the two groups. The upper band is dense. The lower band is dense. The distance between them is not the distance expected if one architecture or training method had pulled decisively ahead. New entrants such as Kimi-3.1 can enter the upper band. They do not redefine it. That is the signature of optimisation against a shared set of constraints, not of a system that has begun to improve itself without external limits. [ Current diagnosis ] Iterative optimisation hitting a ceiling. No recursion is visible in the public results. Each new model is still trained, evaluated, and released by the same external process. Gains remain incremental. The feedback loop that would turn output into a self-sustaining acceleration is not present in the numbers. Hype sells a take-off narrative. The chart supplies evidence of little to no progress against the wall that already constrains the field. [ What the pattern rules out ] A genuine RSI trajectory would show accelerating separation, not a stable two-tier distribution. It would show the leading system pulling away at an increasing rate, not a new release slotting into an existing band. It would not require an external lab to curate the next training run, design the evaluation, and decide when the model is ready for release. The index does not show those features. It shows continued optimisation under the same statistical and data constraints that have always applied. A text sampler improves by the usual methods. A ceiling remains a ceiling. The rate of growth has already told the difference. And the IPO narrative continues to price the take-off that the data does not support. ☕️ +1 or ×10. How many more model releases do we need before we realise RSI is nowhere to be seen?
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Octopus Intelligence retweeted
In 1941, a Spaniard walked into the British embassy in Madrid and offered to spy on the Nazis. The British turned him down. So he went to the Germans instead, pretended to be a loyal fascist, and got hired as a German spy. His plan was to lie to them for the rest of the war. It worked better than anyone could have imagined. His name was Juan Pujol García. Before the war he had tried his hand at running a chicken farm and a movie theater. He had no spy training. What he had was a deep hatred of both fascism and communism after the Spanish Civil War, and an incredible imagination. The Germans gave him a codename, invisible ink, money, and orders to go to Britain and recruit spies. He didn't go to Britain. He went to Lisbon, Portugal, and made everything up. Using a tourist guidebook, maps, magazines, newsreels, and a British railway timetable from the library, he wrote long, detailed reports about life in England. Military movements. Morale. Ports. He'd never been there. He made mistakes. He didn't understand British money. He once reported that dockworkers in Glasgow would do anything for a liter of wine. The Germans loved him anyway. Then British codebreakers reading German messages noticed something strange. The Germans were hunting for a convoy that didn't exist, based on a report from some agent in Britain they'd never heard of. The British went looking for this mystery spy. They found Pujol. In 1942 they finally took him on and brought him to London. Now he had real help. MI5 gave him the codename Garbo, after the actress, because they thought he was the greatest actor in the world. Together with his British handler, Pujol built a fake spy network for the Germans. It eventually had 27 imaginary agents. Each had a name, a personality, a job, and a backstory. A Welsh nationalist. A Venezuelan student. A Greek sailor. Some of them recruited their own imaginary sub-agents. When they needed to explain why one agent had gone quiet, they killed him off. They even put a fake obituary in a Liverpool newspaper. The Germans reportedly paid a pension to his widow. Who also didn't exist. Then came D-Day. Hours before the landings, the British let Pujol send a message warning the Germans that the invasion was coming in Normandy. It was timed so it would arrive too late to matter, but it made him look brilliant. Three days later he sent the most important message of his career. Normandy was a trick, he said. The real invasion was still coming, at Calais, led by a huge army under General Patton. That army was fake too. But the Germans believed him. German forces that could have been rushed to Normandy were held back near Calais for weeks, waiting for an attack that never came. The Germans were so grateful they awarded him the Iron Cross. A few months later, King George VI made him a Member of the Order of the British Empire. He's one of the only people known to have been decorated by both sides of the war. After the war, afraid of revenge from surviving Nazis, he faked his own death from malaria in Africa and disappeared to Venezuela, where he lived quietly running a shop. For decades the world thought he was dead. In 1984, a British writer tracked him down. Pujol came back to Normandy for the 40th anniversary of D-Day and met veterans who had landed on the beaches. Some of them thanked him.
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Fed up more than that John.
British firms are fed up with pointless paperwork and form-filling. Today we are cutting unnecessary bureaucracy, reducing costs and giving businesses the breathing space they need to invest, innovate and create good jobs.
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AI Lead generation emails telling me we can have 4 or 5 sales per week. And others telling me someone wants to buy us. 20 a day. Each one blocked.
Spam calls should be illegal And there should be enforcement of this
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Anthropic needs a good 3rd quarter then.
JUST IN: Anthropic recorded a staggering $80,000,000,000.00 net loss in the first half of 2026.
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Just do the work and keep doing it...
Do the work. Show the work. Teach the work. Sell the system. Secret to winning.
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Octopus Intelligence retweeted
Very unpopular opinion: AI is a tool, and it must remain a tool.
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Octopus Intelligence retweeted
Degrees are depreciating assets. Execution is an appreciating skill. Stop trying to learn what everyone knows and start shipping and learning.
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Octopus Intelligence retweeted
I heard a fascinating story about human behaviour today. A tour guide at a historic castle was getting very high ratings from tourists. They went to see what he was doing differently. On several of the rooms he had used the red velvet ropes to block the doors. These were normally used when the rooms were being repaired or cleaned. He had put them up at the beginning of each day. During g the tour he would look around and say to the group “would you like to have a quick look in here?” And they would say yes in hushed tones. He would ceremoniously unclip the rope and let them through into the room. A room that was always a normal part of every tour. This simple little bit of theatre made people love the tour that much more. Humans love what we can’t have.
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Is Nottingham, Manchester, Birmingham, Liverpool and London in 12 months border line obsessive? Asking for a friend.
With just eight UK and EU shows left, don’t miss your chance to see the band live in Birmingham, Liverpool, Leeds, Brussels, Paris, Lisbon or Madrid – as well as their hotly-anticipated Halloween show at The O2 in London.🎃 TICKETS ARE MOVING FAST – GET YOURS HERE duranduran.com/tour
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Competitive Intelligence Forecasting: How to Make Better Predictions octopusintelligence.com/comp… Global People-Powered Competitive Intelligence | Octopus Competitive Intelligence Agency
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SaaS New Entrant Radar 19th October 2026 | By Octopus Competitive Intelligence Agency octopusintelligence.com/saas…
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Octopus Intelligence retweeted
Richard Williams was Commanding Officer of the SAS
Read this powerful article by @thetimes , and reflect on what has been shared.. This is not just “persecution by (extremely clumsy) process” imposed upon active-duty SAS operators fighting to detain vicious ISIS thugs in an active war zone, but also an example of performative self-immolation initiated by the most senior UK Special Forces officer at the time (G Jenkins) as self-serving exercise in what HE calls ‘transparency’…… So, if someone, anyone (quite possibly an enemy) within an active war zone says the SAS killed an unarmed man, then the so-called ‘senior leaders’ (some, as in this case, with near-zero combat experience) within the Whitehall-based ‘UK system’ desperate to demonstrate something that they call ‘transparency’ (or whatever else floats the MOD’s boat), will automatically launch an aggressive RMP operation to detain the SAS men involved…. Not on the basis of any hard evidence (there is no crime scene, no bodies, no bullets etc), but purely on distant, uncorroborated hearsay and remote, delayed analysis of operational reports; all supported by desk-bound, chinless leaders that seemingly care more about how they will (personally) look in an MOD promotion board than trying to properly understand the circumstances faced by the SAS men and defend them accordingly. What a gift this utterly pathetic weakness, low threshold investigative process and twisted self-defeating system gives to our many enemies….and what an awful message it sends to those that still volunteer to fight on our all of our behalves….
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Octopus Intelligence retweeted
For fishermen, Britain's climate-driven octopus boom is an opportunity, and a threat reut.rs/3UvD0hC reut.rs/3UvD0hC
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"Win rate dropped" "We won 12 deals last quarter" "Nobody knows why" Global People-Powered Win-Loss Interviews | Octopus Competitive Intelligence Agency | octopusintelligence.com/win-…
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Only if you are the British Government.
This quoted post is unavailable.
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