A search engine for market history. Ask a question or find similar historical setups to see what happened next and how today compares.
Joined April 2023
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Orion Engine retweeted
Crazy stuff. Had to lower the threshold cause >25% wasn't finding any matches. Last time it crashed over 20% in a day was during Covid.
Orion Engine retweeted
A few possible paths for ethereum:native comparing the last 3 months with historical analogs found by the engine.
Orion Engine retweeted
$BTC historically likes this staircase pattern of consolidating within a range, putting in a few days of exceptional performance, then chopping some more at a higher range.
If this keeps up, we could enter a $100k to $110k range by the beginning of November.
Orion Engine retweeted
Bitcoin's outlook for the coming months, a case study prepared exclusively with the Orion Engine's tools: a short thread. 🧵
First off, looking at the Historical view, on the past one year, it is clear $BTC has undergone a prolonged drawdown similar to every major one before.
Orion Engine retweeted
Think it's relevant to bring this thread back up
We are seeing Copper/Gold enter a new expansion phase, the last one of which took place in 2020-2021 (and not 2023-2024 in the AI/M2 rally)
Bitcoin has put in its bottom after a "muted" 50% drawdown instead of a typical 70-80% bear market
We've been insisting on the mid-cycle thesis for months not because it's my opinion but because all the charts, macro context, and correlations are pointing to it
And this matters greatly as it shapes the outlook of wether we are entering a "new" bull market or if it's a continuation of the previous one. A new expansion phase, sure, but not a new bull market
Remember equities and indices have not entered a macro bear market like Bitcoin has. The historical precedent for this is a mid-cycle correction where Bitcoin recovers sharply and enters its parabolic phase quickly while many expect a new prolonged cycle
Bitcoin/Gold also had bottomed in February despite BTC/USD making a new low in June, which was the same scenario as in 2020
The mid-cycle thesis is why the 4 year cycle bottom in October didn't make sense, and expecting 30-40k was not a smart idea
Again, all of this is supported by the charts and historical precedent. And like the saying goes, history doesn't repeat but often rhymes. Studying history is the best way to contextualize where in the cycle we might be today
Good morning everyone!
The case for this $BTC correction being a mid-cycle one rather than generalized macro bear market keep building.
BTC/GLD's most recent and highest accuracy analog is not 2022 as everyone is saying (for BTC/USD), but 2020.
The ratio has not swept the February lows and is building momentum.
Gold has already put in its parabolic move and has now entered its distribution phase.
Bitcoin did not pull a blow-off top post halving like it does every cycle.
Liquidity is looking to rotate down the risk curve as VIX drops below 15 and small caps have consistently been leading large caps despite being a mid-term year.
This is a textbook setup for Bitcoin to prove what happens when everyone thinks it's "boring" and has moved on to the next thing.
Even if BTC/GLD puts in 1/3 of the move it did in 2020 and assuming Gold stays between $3/4k, the PT for BTC is around 400k.
@uci0o12 @Sykodelic_ @DorkChicken @OVcrypto @lourenco_vs
Orion Engine retweeted
You can type "qqq up 2.7% in one session while breadth negative" in the Orion Engine and find out in a few seconds the last times this condition happended and what usually followed.
Works on almost any set of conditions, try it out.
Orion Engine retweeted
I always use OrionEngine to support my thesis.
Thanks for making such a useful tool free.
Orion Engine retweeted
When oil spikes 80% in three months, it usually doesn't go on to make new highs. $CL_F
The only exception since 1990 was the post-COVID rebound.
h/t @OrionEngineApp for the chart.
Orion Engine retweeted
October bottom or October ATH?
@benjamincowen and the 4-year cycle crowd are watching for an October/November bottom.
@TheOrionEngine’s analog model is pointing to the opposite:
A potential Bitcoin ATH around October.
Low liquidity.
Fragile market.
Late FOMO.
A consensus “October bottom.”
That’s exactly the kind of setup where the market can punish the obvious trade.
If the Clarity Act gets signed into law in August, the fundamental catalyst could be there too.
Does Bitcoin give everyone the easy bottom, or front-run them with a new ATH?
Orion Engine retweeted
Hyper-scalers raising cash to spend more is NOT indicative of a crash.
When they signal Capex reductions or even restraint is when you run for the hills and rotate into the phase 3 stocks.
Orion Engine retweeted
#CRYPTO - your time will come
Let me be direct: framing BTC as a macro asset that dutifully follows business cycles or four-year halvings is a fundamental misreading of what it actually is, and I understand why that is a frustrating thing to hear if you have been positioned and waiting.
BTC and crypto more broadly, though at smaller scale, is a high-octane liquidity vehicle, full stop. It moves when liquidity rotates toward it, not before. Right now that liquidity is firmly committed elsewhere: locked in a tech FOMO trade that shows no signs of exhaustion, and chasing APAC equities outside of China, Japan included.
The capital is there. It is simply not yours yet.
What makes this moment genuinely unprecedented is this: BTC has never coexisted with an equities bull market of this magnitude alongside a simultaneous precious metals rally and still been sidelined. That is not a bearish signal. That is deferred pressure. And with the SpaceX IPO potentially hoovering up another wave of risk appetite, the queue may extend a little further.
But your turn is coming. When liquidity finally rotates, and it will, the entry point you are sitting on today will look like the opportunity it actually is.
Bitcoin has everything it needs to move.
With a 100% track record, the business cycle being at 54.0, with equities making new highs and the Copper/Gold ratio pushing hard...
The environment that has created the strongest periods in bitcoins life is right where it needs to be...
But Bitcoin is not responding.
There have only been 2x 4 year cycles.
Whereas every single cycle, the main bullish phase has been marked by the conditions mentioned above.
Every single one.
And there is a very valid reason for that, which is why everything else is making new highs.
But Bitcoin seems dead in the water, for the first time ever within this macro backdrop.
Truly strange behaviour.
I am convinced it will play catch up, and hard...
But it is now difficult to pinpoint when.
Orion Engine retweeted
All the bearish posts are going viral.
Anything bullish is ignored. Most accounts have stopped posting.
What else do you need to be bullish? The most aggressive bullish thrusts in prices of many LEADING assets such as the stock market...and you want to be bearish because of news headlines and crazy politicians.
The seeds of success are sowed when everyone else is too scared or ignorant of what is happening and what is going to happen.
But I guess everyone is welcome to get only bullish at tops and only bearish at bottoms.
Orion Engine retweeted
History tells us the stock market is about to explode higher.
All 5 of the V-shaped recoveries in the last 10 years has led to a big rally.
Is this time different?
READ: procapinsights.com/app/artic…
Orion Engine retweeted
$SPY while most look at the 11 day breathtaking move they forget that we've effectively gone nowhere for months. Just because we make a rapid move back to the top of the range doesn't mean we can't continue to drift higher.
In fact, it's these undercuts of the range and rapid moves back to the top of the range coupled with an impulsive RSI that allows it to breakout.
The whole notion "I've never seen the market do this before" is simply a lack of looking left
*NFA
Orion Engine retweeted
When everyone’s freaking out about the Iran War but you and I both know that they can’t IPO SpaceX without the S&P at highs.
