PAPI

🧠 My read: Lamar misses the next four games and comes back Week 14 vs the Bucs, right after the bye. Thursday vs Jacksonville is not happening. Watch the replay. He lets it go, and on the follow through his right hand slams into a Bills defender's arm. Jamison Hensley reported it was Greg Rousseau's arm. The thumb is the part that sticks out, so it takes the hit and gets bent back away from the hand. That's the exact way the UCL tears. It's the ligament on the inside of the thumb that holds it steady when you grip and pinch the ball. Then the clues. The broadcast close up of that hand shows the thumb sitting in line, so I don't see a dislocation. On the sideline a trainer holds a towel over the hand and he walks straight to the locker room. Per Cameron Wolfe the thumb was bleeding and wrapped. He was ruled out within about 20 minutes, and even with his backup hurt later he never came back out. The bleeding matters. When a thumb gets bent back that hard, the skin can split open. Tom Brady's thumb got bent back on a handoff in 2018, needed 12 stitches, and he played four days later. If this is only a cut, Lamar beats my timeline. But a cut alone doesn't usually end a QB's day on the spot. A torn UCL does, because he can't pinch the ball to throw it. We've seen this play before. Drew Brees in 2019: hand hit by Aaron Donald on the release, torn UCL, surgery, missed five games. Dak Prescott in 2022: throwing hand hit on the follow through, thumb fracture, surgery, missed five games. A full tear, or one where the torn end flips outside the tissue that should hold it in place, doesn't heal on its own. Repair, a few weeks protected, then a throwing progression. Brees started back with Nerf balls. In a college football study, skill players were back about 7 weeks after repair. Team docs often allow protected play sooner, but a QB can't throw in a cast. My read: torn UCL, repair this week, and the bye after Week 12 gives him one more week to get the grip back. Week 14 vs Tampa. What flips me: imaging shows a stable joint and a cut that needs stitches. Then he's back Week 10 on Monday night vs the Chargers. If it's a dislocation with no surgery like Baker Mayfield this year, that cost Baker three games. That's Week 12 at Houston. What would make it worse: a fracture at the base of the thumb on top of the ligament. Then Week 14 becomes the best case. This is my read from film and comparable cases. The Ravens have not given a diagnosis yet 🙏 Ravens fans, can this team stay alive in the AFC North until Week 14? 👇 🎥 @koestreicher34

Lamar needs surgery on his right thumb and goes on IR, per Minter. Asked if it's season ending, he said "We'll see." IR plus the bye makes Week 14 vs Tampa the earliest he can play. Still my read if it's the ligament. A fracture with it pushes that later 🙏