SPECIAL REPORT | NEW: Oleshky: How Russia Governs Through Humanitarian Decline The ongoing humanitarian crisis in the occupied Oleshky area reflects the coercive logic of Russian occupation governance in a heavily damaged frontline city. Oleshky has become a test case for Russian rule in an area marked by depopulation, damaged infrastructure, chronic insecurity, and growing isolation from the rest of Ukraine. Rather than reversing these conditions, Russian occupation authorities appear to govern through them, leveraging residents’ increasing dependence on occupation-controlled services, institutions, and administrative systems to sustain control. As humanitarian vulnerabilities deepen and alternatives to occupation governance diminish, humanitarian decline and Russian occupation rule become mutually reinforcing. Russian forces occupied these left bank settlements on February 24, 2022 — the first day of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine — during the initial military push to occupy all of Kherson Oblast from positions in occupied Crimea. Russian troops largely maintained a distance from Oleshky itself in the first few weeks of the invasion, and remaining elements of the Ukrainian city administration attempted to organize self-governance efforts and self-sufficient security patrols while refusing to directly cooperate with Russian soldiers. Geolocated images show Russian forces had officially entered Oleshky as of late March 2022, breaking the tacit governance agreement that had been in place with the remaining Ukrainian officials. Russian forces and occupation officials took full control of Oleshky in late April 2022, however, and about 40 percent of the pre-war population fled to Ukrainian-held territory while security checkpoints were still open.

NEW: Ukrainian officials are widely reporting continued in-motion speed restrictions on SpaceX’s low-Earth orbit satellite communication technology (Starlink and Starshield) on October 23, but the situation remains unclear. Other Key Takeaways: Russia and Ukraine have reportedly agreed to a limited ceasefire in Russian-occupied Oleshky, Kherson Oblast. Russian President Vladimir Putin articulated his long-standing commitment to wider territorial aims in Ukraine far beyond Donetsk Oblast by invoking mythologized and false Russian “historical claims”. The Kremlin appears to be increasingly adopting a more cautious monetary policy amid continued inflationary pressures, which may pose risks to wage growth and Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB). A likely Russian drone struck a cargo ship off the coast of Romania, and drone debris fell in Moldova on October 23. Ukraine and Russia conducted civilian prisoner and prisoner of war (POW) exchanges on October 23. Ukrainian forces recently advanced west of Kostyantynivka. Russian forces launched 176 drones against Ukraine overnight. Ukraine continued its long-range strike campaign against Russian military assets overnight on October 22 to 23 and on October 23.