Sydney, New South Wales
Joined February 2018
- Tweets6.3K
- Following1.2K
- Followers473
- Likes9.6K
paddy retweeted
Young, highly indebted mortgage holders have been weaponized by some who have a vested interest in the status quo.
They face challenges stemming from extremely expensive housing to begin with and now higher rates.
So lets explore that better than my previous tweet.
This cohort is a minority, but is painted as if this was the norm for mortgage holders.
The narratives also paint this as an interest rate issue, rather than a price issue.
Even at 5x median household income, homes even with today's interest rates would be far more affordable.
I'm weary of this cohort being used, often by some of the same folks who overwhelmingly support the conditions that created the challenges these households now face.
If folks are concerned about this cohort and want them to receive assistance, cool, propose that.
But we dont get plans to help first home buyers and the people dealing with the pointy end of things.
We instead get narratives about drastically changing the monetary policy system or simply slashing interest rates (one and the same really), instead of targeted support for those who may actually end up needing it.
Its all so much bulls***.
Thats my TED Talk.
paddy retweeted
When they call you Islamophobes, I want you to remember that 200 years ago, in Chios, 42.000 Greek Christians were massacred by the Muslim Turks and 52.000 were sold into slavery. Never forget that.
paddy retweeted
The Reserve Bank of Australia has “lost patience” with inflation, a top economist has warned, with further interest rate increases forecast from November.
news24.com.au/business/marke…
paddy retweeted
When the time comes that the proverbial Bolsheviks rise up, in a stable and prosperous society, only a fraction of the population joins them.
This is part of why I bang on about relative outcomes by age demographics and people having a stake in society.
Because if people have a stake and an even somewhat credible pathway to achieve what they want in life, they have something to lose.
But when you have a situation where:
- A run of the mill home costs ~9x median household income
- The private sector per capita economy has grown by less than 1% in the last 14 years cumulatively
- There are hugely disparate outcomes in real wages and household consumption growth by age demographic
You have a long term recipe for a fraying of the social fabric and in the long term civil strife.
People should not confuse legendary Australian apathy with the idea that things aren't deteriorating here too.
paddy retweeted
The murder of 88,000 babies annually in Australia is the biggest political issue we face. A political party that does not prioritise the human rights of these babies - killed throughout all 40 weeks of pregnancy in Australia - is not a party we can vote for.
paddy retweeted
From the Moderator of the Presbyterian Church of Victoria:
Open letter to the Victorian Premier
The Hon. @BenCarrollMP
Premier of Victoria
Level 1, 1 Treasury Place,
East Melbourne VIC 3002
October 15, 2026.
Dear Mr Carroll,
Re: Abortion is not ‘care’, either for the baby or for the mother
On behalf of the Presbyterian Church of Victoria, of which I am currently Moderator, I write today with profound dismay following this morning’s announcement concerning your government’s policy to fund abortions through the public purse, and to promote this as an advance in “women’s health”.
Members of our church, of course, believe that women should receive every proper provision for their health and well-being. And women who become pregnant deserve thoughtful, compassionate and practical support. That should be a given in any decent and caring society.
But what about the life of the unborn child?
There are two lives to consider: the well-being and health of the mother, and the developing life of the child within her womb. Why should the one be recognised and protected, while the other is disregarded, and disposed of in the medical waste bin?
We are speaking, after all, of a developing human life which, if pregnancy continues to birth, will ordinarily enter this world as a little girl or boy — with a life to live, birthdays to celebrate, and a future to unfold.
Surely that life deserves consideration, too?
I understand that governing Victoria is complex. There are countless competing demands upon a government, and I would never judge the record of a premier and his (or her) party by a single issue alone.
But the protection of women and the protection of unborn children are both profoundly precious to me. This conviction is the view of my church, the Presbyterian Church of Victoria, and of countless other Christians, Catholic and Protestant alike.
We believe that the deliberate taking of unborn human life is a grave moral wrong. And to have that practice further encouraged and funded by the State is deeply distressing.
I find it extraordinarily difficult to support a government that takes this position.
Who will speak for the unborn child, who has no voice, no vote, and no means of defence?
I would genuinely welcome your response.
With my prayer and best wishes, but with profound sadness over this announcement,
Rev Dr John P Wilson
Moderator, Presbyterian Church of Victoria,
PCV Assembly Hall,
156 Collins St,
Melbourne, VIC 3000
________________________________________________________
h/t Tony Archer
paddy retweeted
AUSTRALIA'S PROPERTY BUBBLE IS BURSTING.
CANADA SHOULD BE PAYING ATTENTION.
The Three "Amigos" are in unison in a bear market. (Australia, Canada and China) Three Real Estate market's that avoided the 2006-2012 collapse.
Australian housing values are falling. Auction clearances are collapsing. Listings are accumulating. Investors are discovering that rental income doesn't necessarily cover the cost of ownership.
But the greatest danger isn't falling house prices.
It's what happens when credit expansion reverses.
🏠 Property values weaken.
🏦 Collateral deteriorates.
📉 Lending slows.
💰 Debt servicing consumes income.
❄️ Deleveraging threatens economic growth.
Australia and Canada illustrate the same underlying vulnerability: decades of treating rising property values as wealth creation rather than recognizing how much of that appreciation depended on expanding credit.
And there is another force economists consistently underestimate.
SOCIAL MOOD.
The psychology that drives investors to borrow aggressively at the top reverse into a determination to preserve capital and eliminate debt.
That is when an asset correction risks becoming Economic Winter.
youtube.com/watch?v=9uay4IR6…
grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtMw_a7…
Punched this into grok for Chris Joye talking about yields on property is usually the Australian 10 yr bond plus 3-5% on top
paddy retweeted
Even though the financial media is devoting a lot of coverage to the rise in bond yields, there is no discussion at all about just how much higher yields are likely to rise. Some talk about 5.5%, or maybe 6% tops. No one is talking about 7%, 8%, or higher. That's the real story.
paddy retweeted
These people are dangerous. And have been given a wide berth for too long. It is the inflation that persists because interest rates are too low (and government spending growth too strong ), that is hurting the most vulnerable. While no doubt some vulnerable people will be badly impacted by a cash rate rising to an appropriate level of between 5% and 5.5%, it is the government that can choose to act to mitigate some of this distress, not the RBA. We cannot put our heads in the sand as the realities of the world we live in change. The consequences and damage only mount. Economists (and just about everyone else) can debate monetary policy. But there is only one institution, and one group of people within that institution, who are responsible for determining monetary policy and the level of short term interest rates. They should be trusted to do their job and listened to when they explain what they are doing and why. In October 2026 there is one fact that stands above all else when it comes to the political economy of Australia’s monetary policy since the ALP government reforms. The RBA Monetary Policy Board has done everything it can to not lift interest rates 1bp more than necessary. In doing so, they have failed to protect the aforementioned most vulnerable, and allowed inflation to flourish. As they pivot and attempt to act with some conviction to restore price stability, these critics might well consider reserving judgement for a little while, if indeed it is the most vulnerable in our community that they purport to care about.
paddy retweeted
We are going to play a game I like to call:
'Really? They have lower YoY inflation than Australia'
- Zimbabwe
- Guyana
- Cameroon
- Guatemala
- Mali
- Iraq
- Mexico
- Senegal
- Equatorial Guinea
- Lesotho
- Swaziland
And many more.
Source: tradingeconomics.com/country…
paddy retweeted
The United States bond market is breaking. So is Brittan Japan, Germany, France. What used to be the safest investment in the world suddenly looks more dangerous.
The US 10 year yield just hit 5.17%. It's the highest since 2007, which was right before the Global Financial Crisis.
That 5.17% decides what you pay for:
- The roof over your head.
- Your car loan
- Your credit card
- Interest on $40 trillion of American debt.
The bond market doesn't take orders from anybody, not even The Fed. For 10 years it did the impossible. It made money free (0% yields) . Mortgages were cheap, car loans were cheap to finance.
A whole generation has grown up thinking that was normal. It wasn't and IT'S OVER.
paddy retweeted
On the basis of bond yields Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy are considered less risky to lend to than Australia.
