Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) (@PipsFunFacts) profile picture

Betting on politics since 2010, trying to separate what I want to happen from what I think will happen. https://teapaw.org/t.co/fsH3BhnV2C

UK
Joined May 2008
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Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) retweeted
AbbVie raises 2024 profit forecast on strong sales of key drugs Skyrizi, Rinvoq reut.rs/4fq7Ay1
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Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) retweeted
Woah Austin Dem Rep. Lloyd Doggett calls on Biden to withdraw
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Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) retweeted
This cannot, cannot, cannot be repeated often enough: Reform will hit harder than polls suggest because they weren’t on the ballot last time in vast majority of Tory seats, and they will now in all of them. The implications of this still haven’t been taken in. Lethal for Tories.
Me too. And because their share was ZERO in Tory seats last time, the increase in share is going to be bigger, consequentially.
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Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) retweeted
New voting intention (3-4 Jun): this is our first poll carried out under our new methodology, which mirrors that which we use for our MRP Lab: 40% Con: 19% Reform UK: 17% Lib Dem: 10% Green: 7% SNP: 3% yougov.co.uk/politics/articl… To show what impact the new methodology has had on voting intention, we have run our previous poll on the new methodology to show what difference it makes, as well as running this most recent poll on the previous methodology Labour's vote share is lower under the new methodology. This is partly down to the method change, although their vote share would have decreased whichever method we used. Fieldwork was all conducted after Nigel Farage announced he was standing as a candidate; Reform UK's vote share rose 3pts regardless of which methodology was used, and so their increase in vote is not related to the methodology change The Conservative vote share has also fallen regardless of which methodology was used, so the decrease is again not related to the methodology change The Lib Dem vote is 2pts higher under the new methodology than the old one - but whichever methodology is used, the results are consistent with the previous survey. This means that our new higher figure for the Lib Dems is as a result of the methodology change You can read more about what changes we made to our methodology and why on our website here: yougov.co.uk/politics/articl…
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Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) retweeted
boy are you the 2024 general election because I’m going to call you at the last minute when all hope is lost
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Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) retweeted
Once again for Cowley's rule of by-election coverage: teapaw.org/philipjcowley/status/1…
If Labour hold Hartlepool by 5, 50 or 500 votes, the political lesson and significance should essentially be the same as if they lose it by 5, 50 or 500 - yet it won't be.
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Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) retweeted
Mid Beds ought to be a Tory hold. Massive majority and potential for LD/Lab dispute as to who's the main challenger. If the Tories did lose it, it would be the biggest majority ever overturned at a by-election (beating the record set last year at Tiverton & Honiton).
I have today informed the chief whip that I am standing down as the MP for Mid Bedfordshire, with immediate effect. It has been an honour to serve as the MP for such a wonderful constituency but it is now time for another to take the reins.
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Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) retweeted
Previously, the 1982 #Eurovision Song Contest in Harrogate was the only time it had been held at a venue subsequently used for a regular UK major party conference (by the LibDems); the Liverpool Arena is part of the complex that will host this year's Labour Party Conference
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Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) retweeted
NEW 🚨🚨 source close to McCarthy has confirmed a deal is on the table It will NOT be enough to take him over the line. Sources predicted could bring over 10-12 holdouts but that’s a guesstimate. Few details on contents. Includes one-member motion to vacate
MILLER when asked if there is a deal just says “very exciting”
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Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) retweeted
And GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy loses his first vote: #FL19 Rep. Byron Donalds (R) votes for Jordan.
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Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) retweeted
Here's what we know on the Nevada Senate race, if we assume the rurals are all but spent, will only add a couple thousand at most to Laxalt's lead: If CCM continues to win urban mail at current clip, taking 65%, she will easily overtake Laxalt with 110,000 mail (at least) left.
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Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) retweeted
If her margin decreases from 65-30 to 60-30, for instance, she would still in decisively. If it is 60-35, same. If it's 55-30, same. If it's 55-35, same. She wins in all those models. Buckle up. Good night to all. See you for more math tomorrow!
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Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) retweeted
It’s not over yet, but between the news of 26K more (likely very Dem-leaning) ballots in Clark, and with Catherine Cortez Masto gaining 5.2K votes in a 20K Washoe batch (CCM +26), there’s pretty clearly one campaign you’d rather be right now. Cortez Masto is a clear favorite IMO
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Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) retweeted
And Lyon is now in, also +8,000 for Laxalt and Lombardo. If the postman delivers for the Dems, they can come back, maybe. If not...
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Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) retweeted
The Brazilian Presidential run-off is today and, right now, one betting site in Brazil are offering Lula at 4/1, whilst at European sites like @smarkets Bolsonaro is better than 9/4. 😮
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Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) retweeted
Bolsonaro held sudden press conference where he complained about electoral court ruling, and sounded like a man worried he may lose. Globo reports, citing unnamed sources, he wanted to announce postponement of election but was talked down by allies g1.globo.com/politica/blog/a…
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Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) retweeted
Brazil (Presidential Election), Datafolha poll: Second round Lula (PT, centre-left): 53% (-6) Bolsonaro (PL, right): 47% (+6) (+/- vs. 30 September - 1 October 2022) Fieldwork: 5-7 October 2022 Sample size: 2,884 #Brazil #Lula #Bolsonaro #Eleicoes2022 #eleicao2022
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Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) retweeted
Brazil (Presidential election), Ipec poll: Second round Lula (PT, centre-left): 54% (-4) Bolsonaro (PL, right): 46% (+4) (+/- vs. 30 September - 1 October 2022) Fieldwork: 4 - 5 October 2022 Sample size: 2,000 #Brazil #Lula #Bolsonaro #Brasil #Eleicoes2022
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