He protecc Adviser @extendedapp I write about conflict & strategy etc at https://teapaw.org/t.co/LIvjovdjUO
Joined June 2021
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OK I'm redoing the substack.
This time I'll write it a bit like I would write a textbook on strategy and operations.
(except I'll be less obsessive about finding the right references every time since it's just a substack and very much "take it or leave it" kind of advice)
Guard retweeted
eToro was the first, & the team confirmed they're close to finalising more. who else was at the Arc x Extended dinner 👇
Bitvavo
- #1 euro crypto exchange: 44% of all EUR spot trading
- 2m+ customers
- $9bn of spot a month, $20bn+ at the peak.
Bitpanda
- 7.4m customers
- Powers crypto for 16 banks & fintechs: Raiffeisen, N26, BW-Bank & more
- 25m+ bank customers reachable through one integration.
Together they reach ~35m Europeans, but 0 perps.
Extended is building to be Europe's perps rails. Plug in & every customer & partner gets perps.
Same maths as eToro:
- 25% eToro + 25% of their flow → ~$47m in fees
- 25% eToro + 50% of their flow → ~$62m
- if volumes recover to the 2025 average → ~$82m
Nothing has been announced so all speculation, but the market is barely pricing in eToro. Europe's distribution isn't priced at all 👀
$XTEN is the ticker.
Everyone's sleeping on eToro. It's the biggest unpriced catalyst in the $XTEN story.
- MiFID-licensed broker.
- 4.36m funded accounts, ~70% in Europe & the UK.
- Flow at the bottom: down ~55% in ten months, from $24bn to $10.7bn invested a month.
but what is the eToro x Extended relationship other than investment?
eToro clients trade → eToro hedges on Extended → eToro routes its users through Extended.
& $10.7bn is what's invested (trades × amount per trade), not the volume traded. Apply leverage (~25% of flow at ~5x) & it's ~$20bn a month.
What that could mean for Extended's ~$19m of annual fees:
10% routed → +$6m = $24m
25% routed → +$14m = $33m
50% routed → +$29m = $48m
& this is based on flow at the lows. Back to Oct '25 levels, 25% routed is $51m, 50% routed is $65m.
$XTEN pre-market price is 3–4x fees. With 25% of eToro's flow, that drops to 2x. The peer median ~21x.
& eToro is just the first. The AMA said bigger B2B & TradFi partnerships are being finalised.
$XTEN is the ticker.
you can just do things
(move to the mountains and walk your dog with a view like this every morning)
Guard retweeted
Everyone's sleeping on eToro. It's the biggest unpriced catalyst in the $XTEN story.
- MiFID-licensed broker.
- 4.36m funded accounts, ~70% in Europe & the UK.
- Flow at the bottom: down ~55% in ten months, from $24bn to $10.7bn invested a month.
but what is the eToro x Extended relationship other than investment?
eToro clients trade → eToro hedges on Extended → eToro routes its users through Extended.
& $10.7bn is what's invested (trades × amount per trade), not the volume traded. Apply leverage (~25% of flow at ~5x) & it's ~$20bn a month.
What that could mean for Extended's ~$19m of annual fees:
10% routed → +$6m = $24m
25% routed → +$14m = $33m
50% routed → +$29m = $48m
& this is based on flow at the lows. Back to Oct '25 levels, 25% routed is $51m, 50% routed is $65m.
$XTEN pre-market price is 3–4x fees. With 25% of eToro's flow, that drops to 2x. The peer median ~21x.
& eToro is just the first. The AMA said bigger B2B & TradFi partnerships are being finalised.
$XTEN is the ticker.
Guard retweeted
The Xpoints programme has concluded.
The final conversion rate is 1 Xpoint = ~4.2857 XTEN, reflecting the 300,000,000 XTEN Community allocation distributed across 70,000,000 Xpoints.
97 community members holding the Tester role in our Discord have also received Xpoint allocations, in recognition of their testing, feedback and consistent use of the platform during Extended's earliest stages.
These allocations came from Xpoints adjusted in our final programme review.
Guard retweeted
Very funny to see such direct evidence that everyone understood the economics of AI requires political capture to make any sense at all
Guard retweeted
The fact that Liz Truss was at Mar a Largo last night when the midterm results started coming in rather poetic. Literally everything she attaches herself to turns to absolute shite almost immediately.😂😂😂
Guard retweeted
I don’t want “revenge.” I don’t want to “get even.”
I want people who committed crimes while in government to be held accountable for their crimes.
End the cycle of impunity.
"the points ended and people still trade there" is exactly in line with our predictions, based on talking with traders.
Extended has already shed a lot of the farmer type, and in the process built an exchange where the trader has a genuine edge in execution quality.
Guard retweeted
no one gives a fuck about crypto btw
timeline completely overrates it as an issue on a larger scale bc it was in a previous post-FTX cycle where they needed to save face
the dems are much more interested in the blatant corruption and war crimes than internet money regulation imo. they are what wins them the next election and that's all governments ever care about
if crypto is attacked it will be the part that should be attacked which is the obvious scams that trump n co extracted from
some exceptions but i think sensible regulation > mass extraction has to be bullish mid-long term crypto