He protecc Adviser @extendedapp I write about conflict & strategy etc at https://teapaw.org/t.co/LIvjovdjUO
Joined June 2021
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Guard retweeted
eToro was the first, & the team confirmed they're close to finalising more. who else was at the Arc x Extended dinner 👇
Bitvavo
- #1 euro crypto exchange: 44% of all EUR spot trading
- 2m+ customers
- $9bn of spot a month, $20bn+ at the peak.
Bitpanda
- 7.4m customers
- Powers crypto for 16 banks & fintechs: Raiffeisen, N26, BW-Bank & more
- 25m+ bank customers reachable through one integration.
Together they reach ~35m Europeans, but 0 perps.
Extended is building to be Europe's perps rails. Plug in & every customer & partner gets perps.
Same maths as eToro:
- 25% eToro + 25% of their flow → ~$47m in fees
- 25% eToro + 50% of their flow → ~$62m
- if volumes recover to the 2025 average → ~$82m
Nothing has been announced so all speculation, but the market is barely pricing in eToro. Europe's distribution isn't priced at all 👀
$XTEN is the ticker.
Everyone's sleeping on eToro. It's the biggest unpriced catalyst in the $XTEN story.
- MiFID-licensed broker.
- 4.36m funded accounts, ~70% in Europe & the UK.
- Flow at the bottom: down ~55% in ten months, from $24bn to $10.7bn invested a month.
but what is the eToro x Extended relationship other than investment?
eToro clients trade → eToro hedges on Extended → eToro routes its users through Extended.
& $10.7bn is what's invested (trades × amount per trade), not the volume traded. Apply leverage (~25% of flow at ~5x) & it's ~$20bn a month.
What that could mean for Extended's ~$19m of annual fees:
10% routed → +$6m = $24m
25% routed → +$14m = $33m
50% routed → +$29m = $48m
& this is based on flow at the lows. Back to Oct '25 levels, 25% routed is $51m, 50% routed is $65m.
$XTEN pre-market price is 3–4x fees. With 25% of eToro's flow, that drops to 2x. The peer median ~21x.
& eToro is just the first. The AMA said bigger B2B & TradFi partnerships are being finalised.
$XTEN is the ticker.
Guard retweeted
Everyone's sleeping on eToro. It's the biggest unpriced catalyst in the $XTEN story.
- MiFID-licensed broker.
- 4.36m funded accounts, ~70% in Europe & the UK.
- Flow at the bottom: down ~55% in ten months, from $24bn to $10.7bn invested a month.
but what is the eToro x Extended relationship other than investment?
eToro clients trade → eToro hedges on Extended → eToro routes its users through Extended.
& $10.7bn is what's invested (trades × amount per trade), not the volume traded. Apply leverage (~25% of flow at ~5x) & it's ~$20bn a month.
What that could mean for Extended's ~$19m of annual fees:
10% routed → +$6m = $24m
25% routed → +$14m = $33m
50% routed → +$29m = $48m
& this is based on flow at the lows. Back to Oct '25 levels, 25% routed is $51m, 50% routed is $65m.
$XTEN pre-market price is 3–4x fees. With 25% of eToro's flow, that drops to 2x. The peer median ~21x.
& eToro is just the first. The AMA said bigger B2B & TradFi partnerships are being finalised.
$XTEN is the ticker.
Guard retweeted
The Xpoints programme has concluded.
The final conversion rate is 1 Xpoint = ~4.2857 XTEN, reflecting the 300,000,000 XTEN Community allocation distributed across 70,000,000 Xpoints.
97 community members holding the Tester role in our Discord have also received Xpoint allocations, in recognition of their testing, feedback and consistent use of the platform during Extended's earliest stages.
These allocations came from Xpoints adjusted in our final programme review.
Guard retweeted
Very funny to see such direct evidence that everyone understood the economics of AI requires political capture to make any sense at all
Guard retweeted
The fact that Liz Truss was at Mar a Largo last night when the midterm results started coming in rather poetic. Literally everything she attaches herself to turns to absolute shite almost immediately.😂😂😂
Guard retweeted
I don’t want “revenge.” I don’t want to “get even.”
I want people who committed crimes while in government to be held accountable for their crimes.
End the cycle of impunity.
Guard retweeted
no one gives a fuck about crypto btw
timeline completely overrates it as an issue on a larger scale bc it was in a previous post-FTX cycle where they needed to save face
the dems are much more interested in the blatant corruption and war crimes than internet money regulation imo. they are what wins them the next election and that's all governments ever care about
if crypto is attacked it will be the part that should be attacked which is the obvious scams that trump n co extracted from
some exceptions but i think sensible regulation > mass extraction has to be bullish mid-long term crypto
Guard retweeted
>"Crypto bearish if Republicans lose"
>Republicans lose
>Daily green
Idk man, the more the Democrats win the less grifting is gonna be allowed
And I think that's a good thing, shit got disgusting over the last two years
Even the President launched a bunch of rugpulls
Guard retweeted
I failed 21 SAS selection.
One hundred and twenty men started. Four finished. I was not one of them.
I do not tell that story to be humble. I tell it because of what happened next, which nobody ever asks about.
I went home. I was 19 years old and I had failed at the one thing I had told everyone I was going to do. There is a particular silence that follows that. Friends are kind. Family are careful. And you sit in your childhood bedroom and understand that the failure is now a fact about you.
Six months later I went back and did the whole thing again.
Passed the second time.
Here is what I actually learned, and it is not what people expect. It was not about grit. It was not about wanting it more. It was that the first attempt was not wasted, it was the reconnaissance. I knew where the ground broke you. I knew what the third day felt like. I was not braver the second time, I was better informed.
Most people treat a failure as a verdict.
It is data.
The only real failure is the one you refuse to go back and look at.
Guard retweeted
extended ama tl;dr. everything you need to know about $XTEN before tge;
tge
• confirmed for november, exact date tba. they’re just finishing legal
• the airdrop is free to claim, has no lockup and needs no kyc. you can transfer or trade it from day one
• sign the terms first. the window is 2 months and opens before tge, and you can still sign after launch
• you can send your allocation to a different wallet, as long as that wallet has an extended account
• eu users can claim, hold, stake and transfer, but there’s no spot trading on extended in the eu because of mica
• sign before tge and you’ll get the tokens before spot trading opens, with no price at that point. worth knowing for your accountant and tax purposes
staking is the core utility
• leagues from pawn (500) to king (5m)
• 5–30% off taker fees
• vault extra yield boost from 0.5x to 5x, with caps going from $300k flat to up to $2m for kings
• affiliate payouts up to +40%
• paying fees in $XTEN (not live at launch) stacks on top, for up to 40–45% off
• 7 day unstake, no fees to stake or unstake
• staking rewards come from a fixed reserve. no new tokens get minted, and the team says emissions will stay below buybacks
supply and buybacks
• 1b fixed supply, and it can only go down
• team and investor tokens stay locked for 12 months and don’t earn staking yield
• the 17.4m earned by their internal mm desk was maker-only liquidity. part of it supports $XTEN liquidity and the rest goes to the ecosystem fund
• buybacks will be fully disclosed, with a dashboard. their commitment is to route as much exchange value as possible into buybacks
• net revenue is 50% of gross after rebates
tech and security
• left starknet for its own zk stack on arc (sp1 by succinct)
• one default prover at tge, external validators a few weeks later
• validators need 5m self-staked, unlocked tokens
• the treasury contract has a circuit breaker: more than 5% leaving in 24h needs 3/5 signers
roadmap
• options with true portfolio margining across perps and spot, targeting early 2027 (prediction markets come as a subset)
• tokenized stocks and more assets as collateral, plus unified margin
• decentralised matching engine running in TEEs to stop front-running
• bigger b2b and tradfi partnerships being finalised, and the circle partnership details come later
• a 20 person team
my take: community first, insiders locked, fixed supply and real staking utility. the open question is the emissions schedule and how big the buybacks turn out to be
i will be bidding $XTEN at tge at $200m fdv
the wait is over. $XTEN tokenomics from @extendedapp are out, and the community got the biggest slice
the numbers that matter:
- 1b max supply, fixed forever. no inflation and no mint function, and supply can only go down through burns
- 30% (300m) to the community airdrop, fully unlocked at tge, nothing to pay
- that’s more than founders & team (25.14%) and more than investors (24.86%)
- no team or investor tokens unlock before month 12
- free float at tge is only the claimed community allocation, so no vc dump on day one
and the utility is actually useful for traders. stake $XTEN and you get a league tier, from pawn (500) up to king (5m):
- fee discounts from 5% to 30%
- vault extra yield boost from 0.5x to 5x
- boosted vault deposit cap up to $2m
- affiliate payout multiplier up to 1.4x
staking rewards come from a fixed 150m reserve. once it’s spent, emissions stop, and no new tokens get printed to pay stakers
community first, insiders locked for a year, a hard cap and real utility from day one
this is how a perp dex tge should look
tge date and claim window are still to come. if you farmed points, keep an eye out for the terms signing window, because unsigned allocations go to the ecosystem fund
Guard retweeted
当然，盘前价格跌了，套保的也好，看空的也罢，我想对你们说的是尽管空，一切都是市场说了算。而我自己，积分排名25，积分总量约30万了，目前没做任何套保。准备坚持拿。
关于流通，因为需要质押、验证。那么这部分需求都是要从市场上买，甚至包括 @extendedapp 团队也照样需要从市场买。那么潜在的需求量应该不会小。
对于回购，目前团队前期收入应该在20-30m的回购资金，而且后期也会有销毁。
目前就这些吧。感慨以下就是许久没有遇到这么大格局、这么纯净的项目了。
@extendedapp 伟大无需多言
代币经济学已出，官方文档：docs.extended.exchange/exten…
官推：teapaw.org/extendedapp/status/211…
总结：
1. 总量锁定 10 亿 XTEN，无通胀。
2. 社区空投 30%（3 亿）TGE 全解锁；需 App 签署条款；未领进生态基金。
3. TGE 约解锁 32.9%；自由流通上限约 30%。
4. 团队/投资人 50%：满 12 月才开始解锁；团队线性 36 期、投资人 12 月先 25%。
5. 生态 20%：15% 质押排放储备 + 5% 生态基金。
6. 质押即上线：League 决定费率折扣、Vault 加成（最高 5x、$200 万上限）与推荐乘数；解押 7 天。
7. TGE 日期、领取窗口、排放表：未公布（白皮书旧日期已修订）。
8. EU 站内暂不开放 XTEN 现货；CCTP 原生跨链。
看得出来 @extendedapp 的格局：
1、30%在tge全流通，全部给积分持有者。许久未见这样的流通。大格局。
2、空投全部给积分持有者，说到做到。敬佩。
3、包括 @extendedapp 本身，都必须购买 500 万个 $XTEN 代币才能运行验证；市场潜在需求不小。
此外，在AMA中看到听到给了“第三方资本提供方 11,125,000 + Alber Blanc 10,285,714”。这部分也是包含在积分里面，不过是做市积分。
这里也介绍下做市商 Alber Blanc，大家平时圈里很少听到但又有硬实力的高级做市商。定位是加密圈一线的自营高频做市商，但它没有公开财报，所以下面的规模数字基本都是它自己说的。
基本情况
2010 年成立，总部在塞浦路斯利马索尔，在荷兰 Haarlem、瑞士 Lugano 和新加坡也有办公室。
只用自有资金交易，不管外部客户的钱。高频和中频两条策略线都是自己研发的，重点做新兴市场（中国、巴西、印度等）。
官网写的是 200 多人。LinkedIn 统计约 118 人，一年涨了 40% 左右。团队有一部分是俄语背景的人。
技术实力
自建 100 多台服务器，网络栈用了 kernel bypass（绕过操作系统内核收发数据，降低延迟），接入 50 多家交易所，和 AWS 集成很深。东京这类机房的低延迟竞争它是正经玩家。
有自己的 tick 级分布式回测系统。
加密业务
自称在主流加密交易所是前五的流动性提供商。
对外做市品牌叫 Albus Liquidity，覆盖 CeFi、DEX、现货、永续和 RWA，还做上币咨询。它自报月成交量 3510 亿美元以上（另一处写 5000 亿以上），日均约 160 亿美元，Aster、Paradex 这类 Perp DEX 都有它的盘。
新拆出来一个机构业务 Stelaxis，以本金身份交易，另外做 AI 交易软件。
我的判断
技术和规模是真的，属于 Wintermute、GSR 这一档里偏高频的那类，比一般项目方找的小做市商强很多。
Guard retweeted
XTEN tokenomics will be released later today.
Join the Extended team for a live AMA in Discord at 18:00 UTC.
discord.gg/BxDv3rDg5
